Yale University: Wisdom of the Few - Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders
June 12, 2026
June 12, 2026
NEW HAVEN, Connecticut, June 12 -- Yale University issued the following news:
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Wisdom of the Few? Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders
The prevailing view is that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi get their accuracy by aggregating the views of vast numbers of participants. But a new study co-authored by Yale SOM's Theis Jensen finds that, in fact, a small group of informed traders drive prices--and take h . . .
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Wisdom of the Few? Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders
The prevailing view is that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi get their accuracy by aggregating the views of vast numbers of participants. But a new study co-authored by Yale SOM's Theis Jensen finds that, in fact, a small group of informed traders drive prices--and take h . . .