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Manhattan Institute Issues Commentary to New York Post: Back-to-School in Mamdani's NYC Means Back to the Same Old Failure - It's All in the Plan
NEW YORK, Sept. 11 -- The Manhattan Institute issued the following excerpts of a commentary:
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Back-to-school in Mamdani's NYC Means Back to the Same Old Failure - It's All in the Plan
By Wai Wah Chin
New York Post
It's back-to-school time in New York City -- and while the names at the top this year have changed, the path to improvement has not.
Last fall, the city Department of Education wasn't ready.
Student performance was appalling, as the National Assessment of Educational Progress made clear, and the plan to fix it? Absent.
One year later, under a new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, and ... Show Full Article NEW YORK, Sept. 11 -- The Manhattan Institute issued the following excerpts of a commentary: * * * Back-to-school in Mamdani's NYC Means Back to the Same Old Failure - It's All in the Plan By Wai Wah Chin New York Post It's back-to-school time in New York City -- and while the names at the top this year have changed, the path to improvement has not. Last fall, the city Department of Education wasn't ready. Student performance was appalling, as the National Assessment of Educational Progress made clear, and the plan to fix it? Absent. One year later, under a new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, andnew Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels, it's the same plan.
Official results released in August show that on the state's 2026 standardized tests for grades 3-8, citywide English Language Arts proficiency fell to 50.3% -- a six-point drop from the 56.3% scored in 2025.
Third-grade reading cratered 13.8 points, to 44.2%; fifth-grade reading scores fell 13.1 points, to 46.6%.
Continue reading the entire piece here at The New York Post (https://nypost.com/2026/09/10/opinion/back-to-school-in-mamdanis-nyc-means-back-to-the-same-old-failure)
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Wai Wah Chin an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
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Original text here: https://manhattan.institute/article/back-to-school-in-mamdanis-nyc-means-back-to-the-same-old-failure-its-all-in-the-plan
[Category: ThinkTank]
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Back-to-school in Mamdani's NYC Means Back to the Same Old Failure - It's All in the Plan
By Wai Wah Chin
New York Post
It's back-to-school time in New York City -- and while the names at the top this year have changed, the path to improvement has not.
Last fall, the city Department of Education wasn't ready.
Student performance was appalling, as the National Assessment of Educational Progress made clear, and the plan to fix it? Absent.
One year later, under a new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, and ... Show Full Article NEW YORK, Sept. 11 -- The Manhattan Institute issued the following excerpts of a commentary: * * * Back-to-school in Mamdani's NYC Means Back to the Same Old Failure - It's All in the Plan By Wai Wah Chin New York Post It's back-to-school time in New York City -- and while the names at the top this year have changed, the path to improvement has not. Last fall, the city Department of Education wasn't ready. Student performance was appalling, as the National Assessment of Educational Progress made clear, and the plan to fix it? Absent. One year later, under a new mayor, Zohran Mamdani, andnew Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels, it's the same plan.
Official results released in August show that on the state's 2026 standardized tests for grades 3-8, citywide English Language Arts proficiency fell to 50.3% -- a six-point drop from the 56.3% scored in 2025.
Third-grade reading cratered 13.8 points, to 44.2%; fifth-grade reading scores fell 13.1 points, to 46.6%.
Continue reading the entire piece here at The New York Post (https://nypost.com/2026/09/10/opinion/back-to-school-in-mamdanis-nyc-means-back-to-the-same-old-failure)
* * *
Wai Wah Chin an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
* * *
Original text here: https://manhattan.institute/article/back-to-school-in-mamdanis-nyc-means-back-to-the-same-old-failure-its-all-in-the-plan
[Category: ThinkTank]
Ifo President Fuest: Interest Rate Hike is Unavoidable
MUNICH, Germany, Sept. 11 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release:
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ifo President Fuest: Interest Rate Hike is Unavoidable
According to ifo President Clemens Fuest, the ECB's interest rate hike announced today is inevitable.
He says inflation in the eurozone is currently above 3 percent. "Inflation is slightly lower in Germany.
Given that the economy remains quite weak despite some rays of hope, the interest rate hike comes at an inopportune time for Germany," says Fuest.
"However, the ECB has a mandate to conduct monetary policy for the entire eurozone." Since core inflation ... Show Full Article MUNICH, Germany, Sept. 11 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release: * * * ifo President Fuest: Interest Rate Hike is Unavoidable According to ifo President Clemens Fuest, the ECB's interest rate hike announced today is inevitable. He says inflation in the eurozone is currently above 3 percent. "Inflation is slightly lower in Germany. Given that the economy remains quite weak despite some rays of hope, the interest rate hike comes at an inopportune time for Germany," says Fuest. "However, the ECB has a mandate to conduct monetary policy for the entire eurozone." Since core inflationis also well above two percent, the ECB had no choice but to act.
In its decision today, the Governing Council of the ECB raised the interest rate on the deposit facility, as well as the interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility, by 25 basis points each.
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Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2026-09-10/ifo-president-fuest-interest-rate-hike-unavoidable
[Category: ThinkTank]
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ifo President Fuest: Interest Rate Hike is Unavoidable
According to ifo President Clemens Fuest, the ECB's interest rate hike announced today is inevitable.
He says inflation in the eurozone is currently above 3 percent. "Inflation is slightly lower in Germany.
Given that the economy remains quite weak despite some rays of hope, the interest rate hike comes at an inopportune time for Germany," says Fuest.
"However, the ECB has a mandate to conduct monetary policy for the entire eurozone." Since core inflation ... Show Full Article MUNICH, Germany, Sept. 11 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release: * * * ifo President Fuest: Interest Rate Hike is Unavoidable According to ifo President Clemens Fuest, the ECB's interest rate hike announced today is inevitable. He says inflation in the eurozone is currently above 3 percent. "Inflation is slightly lower in Germany. Given that the economy remains quite weak despite some rays of hope, the interest rate hike comes at an inopportune time for Germany," says Fuest. "However, the ECB has a mandate to conduct monetary policy for the entire eurozone." Since core inflationis also well above two percent, the ECB had no choice but to act.
In its decision today, the Governing Council of the ECB raised the interest rate on the deposit facility, as well as the interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility, by 25 basis points each.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2026-09-10/ifo-president-fuest-interest-rate-hike-unavoidable
[Category: ThinkTank]
Center of the American Experiment Issues Commentary: Renewables Raise Electricity Prices, Official Federal Statistics Corroborate
MINNETONKA, Minnesota, Sept. 11 -- The Center of the American Experiment, a civic and educational organization that says it creates and advocates policies, issued the following commentary:
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Renewables raise electricity prices, official federal statistics corroborate
Written by Darren Nelson | September 10, 2026
In my recent article entitled, "Renewables raise electricity prices, University of Chicago economists find," two University of Chicago academics estimated that electricity price rises, due to Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), were 11% over 7 years and 17% over 12 years.
The ... Show Full Article MINNETONKA, Minnesota, Sept. 11 -- The Center of the American Experiment, a civic and educational organization that says it creates and advocates policies, issued the following commentary: * * * Renewables raise electricity prices, official federal statistics corroborate Written by Darren Nelson | September 10, 2026 In my recent article entitled, "Renewables raise electricity prices, University of Chicago economists find," two University of Chicago academics estimated that electricity price rises, due to Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), were 11% over 7 years and 17% over 12 years. TheChicago academics observed that there were no significant electricity policy changes, nor inflationary electricity trends, prior to the early 2000s, except RPS in a majority of states including Minnesota.
They also found that the inflection point, when renewables inflation took off, was the year 2002. The official federal statistics back this up, but at far higher rates of electricity inflation, that even "Blind Freddy" can see in the seven charts to follow.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
The official federal statistics in the following two charts are sourced from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart 1 below shows electricity CPI taking off from 2002 through to 2024 for the Twin Cities (MSP), Midwest (MW) and the US, with MSP separating upwards from 2008. Minnesota's renewables push started in 2001 (i.e. "voluntary" REO) and 2007 (i.e. mandatory RES). Other highlights include:
* MSP: inflation of 84% for 1978-2001 and 131% for 2002-2024; volatility of 19% for 1978-2001 and 23% for 2002-2024; and misery (inflation plus volatility) of 103% for 1978-2001 and 154% for 2002-2024.
* MW: inflation of 94% for 1978-2001 and 92% for 2002-2024; volatility of 17% for 1978-2001 and 19% for 2002-2024; and misery of 111% for 1978-2001 and 111% for 2002-2024.
* US: inflation of 126% for 1978-2001 and 105% for 2002-2024; volatility of 19% for 1978-2001 and 19% for 2002-2024; and misery of 145% for 1978-2001 and 124% for 2002-2024.
Chart 2 also below shows electricity CPI for the Twin Cities in between All Items (AI) CPI and Natural Gas (NG) CPI from 1987 until 2002, with NG overtaking it from 2003 to 2008, and AI being overtaken by it from 2013 to 2014. Other highlights include:
* All Items CPI: inflation of 178% for 1978-2001 and 67% for 2002-2024; volatility of 26% for 1978-2001 and 15% for 2002-2024; and misery of 204% for 1978-2001 and 82% for 2002-2024.
* Electricity CPI: inflation of 84% for 1978-2001 and 131% for 2002-2024; volatility of 19% for 1978-2001 and 23% for 2002-2024; and misery of 103% for 1978-2001 and 154% for 2002-2024.
* Natural Gas CPI: inflation of 186% for 1978-2001 and 60% for 2002-2024; volatility of 23% for 1978-2001 and 20% for 2002-2024; and misery of 209% for 1978-2001 and 81% for 2002-2024.
Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The official federal statistics in the following three charts are sourced from electricity and natural gas prices published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the former originally in cents per kiloWatt-hours (cents/kWh), but then converted to dollars per million British thermal units ($/MMBtu), so as to be compared with the latter.
Chart 3 below shows Minnesota (MN) average electricity prices (AEP) in cents/kWh steadily increasing from 2002 to 2025, for residential, commercial and industrial customers. Other highlights include:
* MN Residential AEP: inflation of 81% for 1978-2001 and 106% for 2002-2024; volatility of 13% for 1978-2001 and 21% for 2002-2024; and misery of 94% for 1978-2001 and 127% for 2002-2024.
* MN Commercial AEP: inflation of 49% for 1978-2001 and 107% for 2002-2024; volatility of 11% for 1978-2001 and 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 60% for 1978-2001 and 128% for 2002-2024.
* MN Industrial AEP: inflation of 41% for 1978-2001 and 125% for 2002-2024; volatility of 9% for 1978-2001 and 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 50% for 1978-2001 and 147% for 2002-2024.
Charts 4 also below shows the gap between MN AEP and MN average natural gas prices (ANGP) in $/MMBtu steadily increasing from 2002 to 2025. Chart 5 further below shows the average energy prices ratio (AEPR) of these two spasmodically increasing from 2008 to 2025. Other highlights include:
* MN AEP: inflation of 63% for 1978-2001 and 113% for 2002-2024; volatility of 11% for 1978-2001 and 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 74% for 1978-2001 and 135% for 2002-2024.
* MN ANGP: inflation of 223% for 1978-2001 and 8% for 2002-2024; volatility of 23% for 1978-2001 and 23% for 2002-2024; and misery of 246% for 1978-2001 and 30% for 2002-2024.
* MN AEPR: inflation of -49% for 1978-2001 and 98% for 2002-2024; volatility of 15% for 1978-2001 and 34% for 2002-2024; and misery of -34% for 1978-2001 and 132% for 2002-2024.
Electricity Minus Inflation (EMI)
The official federal statistics in the following two charts are also sourced from CPI published by BLS.
Chart 6 below shows Electricity Minus Inflation (EMI) as an index (I = 100), which is electricity CPI minus all items CPI, mostly declining from 1978 to 2002, before largely increasing from 2003 to 2024. EMI is also negative from 1980 to 2010, before turning positive from 2011 to 2024. Declining or negative EMI is good, and increasing or positive EMI is bad.
Chart 7 further below shows EMI as an annual change (%). Five years between 1978 and 2001 are -5% or less, with only one year like that between 2002 and 2024 (i.e. 2019). Four years between 2002 and 2024 are +5% or more, with zero years like that between 1978 and 2001.
Other highlights include:
* EMI (I = 100): average of -9.3 for 1978-2001 and -1.0 for 2002-2024; median of -6.4 for 1978-2001 and 5.3 for 2002-2024; maximum of 13.0 for 1978-2001 and 26.5 for 2002-2024; minimum of -38.4 for 1978-2001 and -40.7 for 2002-2024; standard deviation of 11.8 for 1978-2001 and 21.9 for 2002-2024; misery (median plus standard deviation) of 5.5 for 1978-2001 and 27.1 for 2002-2024.
* EMI (Change %): average of -1.9% for 1978-2001 and 1.3% for 2002-2024; median of -1.6% for 1978-2001 and 1.4% for 2002-2024; maximum of 4.4% for 1978-2001 and 9.1% for 2002-2024; minimum of -17.4% for 1978-2001 and -5.0% for 2002-2024; standard deviation of 5.1% for 1978-2001 and 3.4% for 2002-2024; misery of 3.5% for 1978-2001 and 4.8% for 2002-2024.
Conclusion
In summary, the Minnesota (MN) and Twin Cities (MSP) highlights from above include:
* MSP Electricity Consumer Price Index (CPI): inflation of 131% for 2002-2024; volatility of 23% for 2002-2024; and misery (inflation plus volatility) of 154% for 2002-2024.
* MN Average Electricity Prices (AEP): inflation of 113% for 2002-2024; volatility of 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 135% for 2002-2024.
* MSP Electricity Minus Inflation (EMI): average of 1.3% for 2002-2024; median of 1.4% for 2002-2024; maximum of 9.1% for 2002-2024; minimum of -5.0% for 2002-2024 (i.e. 2019); standard deviation of 3.4% for 2002-2024; misery (median plus standard deviation) of 4.8% for 2002-2024.
Note that the Chicago academics estimated renewables-driven electricity inflation of 11% over 7 years and 17% over 12 years. The annual EMI average and median are very consistent with those two figures, being 9.1% to 9.8% and 15.6% to 16.8% respectively.
In conclusion, electricity prices inflation in Minnesota and the Twin Cities started to take off right after wind and solar renewables were incentivised from 2001 and then mandated from 2007. This is not only self-evident over time by looking at electricity alone, but even more so when compared to CPI, generally or natural gas in particular, as well as the rest of the Midwest or US. Regarding the latter two, MN's and MSP's electricity inflation is far worse.
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Darren Nelson is a Policy Fellow at Center of the American Experiment.
darren.nelson@americanexperiment.org
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Original text and charts here: https://www.americanexperiment.org/renewables-raise-electricity-prices-official-federal-statistics-corroborate/
[Category: ThinkTank]
* * *
Renewables raise electricity prices, official federal statistics corroborate
Written by Darren Nelson | September 10, 2026
In my recent article entitled, "Renewables raise electricity prices, University of Chicago economists find," two University of Chicago academics estimated that electricity price rises, due to Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), were 11% over 7 years and 17% over 12 years.
The ... Show Full Article MINNETONKA, Minnesota, Sept. 11 -- The Center of the American Experiment, a civic and educational organization that says it creates and advocates policies, issued the following commentary: * * * Renewables raise electricity prices, official federal statistics corroborate Written by Darren Nelson | September 10, 2026 In my recent article entitled, "Renewables raise electricity prices, University of Chicago economists find," two University of Chicago academics estimated that electricity price rises, due to Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), were 11% over 7 years and 17% over 12 years. TheChicago academics observed that there were no significant electricity policy changes, nor inflationary electricity trends, prior to the early 2000s, except RPS in a majority of states including Minnesota.
They also found that the inflection point, when renewables inflation took off, was the year 2002. The official federal statistics back this up, but at far higher rates of electricity inflation, that even "Blind Freddy" can see in the seven charts to follow.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
The official federal statistics in the following two charts are sourced from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart 1 below shows electricity CPI taking off from 2002 through to 2024 for the Twin Cities (MSP), Midwest (MW) and the US, with MSP separating upwards from 2008. Minnesota's renewables push started in 2001 (i.e. "voluntary" REO) and 2007 (i.e. mandatory RES). Other highlights include:
* MSP: inflation of 84% for 1978-2001 and 131% for 2002-2024; volatility of 19% for 1978-2001 and 23% for 2002-2024; and misery (inflation plus volatility) of 103% for 1978-2001 and 154% for 2002-2024.
* MW: inflation of 94% for 1978-2001 and 92% for 2002-2024; volatility of 17% for 1978-2001 and 19% for 2002-2024; and misery of 111% for 1978-2001 and 111% for 2002-2024.
* US: inflation of 126% for 1978-2001 and 105% for 2002-2024; volatility of 19% for 1978-2001 and 19% for 2002-2024; and misery of 145% for 1978-2001 and 124% for 2002-2024.
Chart 2 also below shows electricity CPI for the Twin Cities in between All Items (AI) CPI and Natural Gas (NG) CPI from 1987 until 2002, with NG overtaking it from 2003 to 2008, and AI being overtaken by it from 2013 to 2014. Other highlights include:
* All Items CPI: inflation of 178% for 1978-2001 and 67% for 2002-2024; volatility of 26% for 1978-2001 and 15% for 2002-2024; and misery of 204% for 1978-2001 and 82% for 2002-2024.
* Electricity CPI: inflation of 84% for 1978-2001 and 131% for 2002-2024; volatility of 19% for 1978-2001 and 23% for 2002-2024; and misery of 103% for 1978-2001 and 154% for 2002-2024.
* Natural Gas CPI: inflation of 186% for 1978-2001 and 60% for 2002-2024; volatility of 23% for 1978-2001 and 20% for 2002-2024; and misery of 209% for 1978-2001 and 81% for 2002-2024.
Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The official federal statistics in the following three charts are sourced from electricity and natural gas prices published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the former originally in cents per kiloWatt-hours (cents/kWh), but then converted to dollars per million British thermal units ($/MMBtu), so as to be compared with the latter.
Chart 3 below shows Minnesota (MN) average electricity prices (AEP) in cents/kWh steadily increasing from 2002 to 2025, for residential, commercial and industrial customers. Other highlights include:
* MN Residential AEP: inflation of 81% for 1978-2001 and 106% for 2002-2024; volatility of 13% for 1978-2001 and 21% for 2002-2024; and misery of 94% for 1978-2001 and 127% for 2002-2024.
* MN Commercial AEP: inflation of 49% for 1978-2001 and 107% for 2002-2024; volatility of 11% for 1978-2001 and 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 60% for 1978-2001 and 128% for 2002-2024.
* MN Industrial AEP: inflation of 41% for 1978-2001 and 125% for 2002-2024; volatility of 9% for 1978-2001 and 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 50% for 1978-2001 and 147% for 2002-2024.
Charts 4 also below shows the gap between MN AEP and MN average natural gas prices (ANGP) in $/MMBtu steadily increasing from 2002 to 2025. Chart 5 further below shows the average energy prices ratio (AEPR) of these two spasmodically increasing from 2008 to 2025. Other highlights include:
* MN AEP: inflation of 63% for 1978-2001 and 113% for 2002-2024; volatility of 11% for 1978-2001 and 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 74% for 1978-2001 and 135% for 2002-2024.
* MN ANGP: inflation of 223% for 1978-2001 and 8% for 2002-2024; volatility of 23% for 1978-2001 and 23% for 2002-2024; and misery of 246% for 1978-2001 and 30% for 2002-2024.
* MN AEPR: inflation of -49% for 1978-2001 and 98% for 2002-2024; volatility of 15% for 1978-2001 and 34% for 2002-2024; and misery of -34% for 1978-2001 and 132% for 2002-2024.
Electricity Minus Inflation (EMI)
The official federal statistics in the following two charts are also sourced from CPI published by BLS.
Chart 6 below shows Electricity Minus Inflation (EMI) as an index (I = 100), which is electricity CPI minus all items CPI, mostly declining from 1978 to 2002, before largely increasing from 2003 to 2024. EMI is also negative from 1980 to 2010, before turning positive from 2011 to 2024. Declining or negative EMI is good, and increasing or positive EMI is bad.
Chart 7 further below shows EMI as an annual change (%). Five years between 1978 and 2001 are -5% or less, with only one year like that between 2002 and 2024 (i.e. 2019). Four years between 2002 and 2024 are +5% or more, with zero years like that between 1978 and 2001.
Other highlights include:
* EMI (I = 100): average of -9.3 for 1978-2001 and -1.0 for 2002-2024; median of -6.4 for 1978-2001 and 5.3 for 2002-2024; maximum of 13.0 for 1978-2001 and 26.5 for 2002-2024; minimum of -38.4 for 1978-2001 and -40.7 for 2002-2024; standard deviation of 11.8 for 1978-2001 and 21.9 for 2002-2024; misery (median plus standard deviation) of 5.5 for 1978-2001 and 27.1 for 2002-2024.
* EMI (Change %): average of -1.9% for 1978-2001 and 1.3% for 2002-2024; median of -1.6% for 1978-2001 and 1.4% for 2002-2024; maximum of 4.4% for 1978-2001 and 9.1% for 2002-2024; minimum of -17.4% for 1978-2001 and -5.0% for 2002-2024; standard deviation of 5.1% for 1978-2001 and 3.4% for 2002-2024; misery of 3.5% for 1978-2001 and 4.8% for 2002-2024.
Conclusion
In summary, the Minnesota (MN) and Twin Cities (MSP) highlights from above include:
* MSP Electricity Consumer Price Index (CPI): inflation of 131% for 2002-2024; volatility of 23% for 2002-2024; and misery (inflation plus volatility) of 154% for 2002-2024.
* MN Average Electricity Prices (AEP): inflation of 113% for 2002-2024; volatility of 22% for 2002-2024; and misery of 135% for 2002-2024.
* MSP Electricity Minus Inflation (EMI): average of 1.3% for 2002-2024; median of 1.4% for 2002-2024; maximum of 9.1% for 2002-2024; minimum of -5.0% for 2002-2024 (i.e. 2019); standard deviation of 3.4% for 2002-2024; misery (median plus standard deviation) of 4.8% for 2002-2024.
Note that the Chicago academics estimated renewables-driven electricity inflation of 11% over 7 years and 17% over 12 years. The annual EMI average and median are very consistent with those two figures, being 9.1% to 9.8% and 15.6% to 16.8% respectively.
In conclusion, electricity prices inflation in Minnesota and the Twin Cities started to take off right after wind and solar renewables were incentivised from 2001 and then mandated from 2007. This is not only self-evident over time by looking at electricity alone, but even more so when compared to CPI, generally or natural gas in particular, as well as the rest of the Midwest or US. Regarding the latter two, MN's and MSP's electricity inflation is far worse.
* * *
Darren Nelson is a Policy Fellow at Center of the American Experiment.
darren.nelson@americanexperiment.org
* * *
Original text and charts here: https://www.americanexperiment.org/renewables-raise-electricity-prices-official-federal-statistics-corroborate/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Center of the American Experiment Issues Commentary: Klobuchar Sought Earmark for Facility Expansion at Minneapolis Mosque
MINNETONKA, Minnesota, Sept. 11 -- The Center of the American Experiment, a civic and educational organization that says it creates and advocates policies, issued the following commentary:
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Klobuchar sought earmark for facility expansion at Minneapolis mosque
Written by Bill Glahn | September 10, 2026
Our tour of questionable Amy Klobuchar earmarks takes us to the north side of Minneapolis today. It's a location where U.S. Sen. Klobuchar once proposed (p. 12) to invest $882,000 of federal taxpayer money in developing a new building on the site of an existing mosque. It does not appear ... Show Full Article MINNETONKA, Minnesota, Sept. 11 -- The Center of the American Experiment, a civic and educational organization that says it creates and advocates policies, issued the following commentary: * * * Klobuchar sought earmark for facility expansion at Minneapolis mosque Written by Bill Glahn | September 10, 2026 Our tour of questionable Amy Klobuchar earmarks takes us to the north side of Minneapolis today. It's a location where U.S. Sen. Klobuchar once proposed (p. 12) to invest $882,000 of federal taxpayer money in developing a new building on the site of an existing mosque. It does not appearthat the grant went through.
This building on North Lyndale Avenue does double duty as the home of the Masjid An-Nur mosque and the related social service nonprofit Al-Maa'uun.
To be clear, upfront: neither entity has been accused of fraud or any other wrongdoing, whatsoever. Unlike other entries in this series, the issue here is the Establishment Clause and the potential use of taxpayer funds for the benefit of a religious institution.
In Sen. Klobuchar's June 9, 2022, earmark disclosure, the proposed Al-Maa'uun earmark is placed in context,
"Al Maa'uun is housed in the Masjid Au-Nur [sic], home to the North Minneapolis Muslim faith community. Community gatherings, religious services, and other community meetings are held in the space."
Klobuchar writes,
"During the pandemic it became apparent Al Maa'uun was in need of more physical space. Designating a Workforce Development Center will create a space for programmatic expansion and community engagement. Al Maa'uun will conduct pre-development work for facility expansion including feasibility studies, exploration reports, ground surveys, and concept planning for a facility to be built on the current parking lot."
It's not clear from Klobuchar's description whether the new building (still unbuilt) would serve the same dual purposes as the existing structure. But the references to the mosque and the space's variety of uses should have been a red flag.
Both the mosque and the nonprofit are headed up by the same man, Imam Makram El-Amin. El-Amin was a 2014 recipient of a prestigious Bush Fellowship. The Al-Maa'uun nonprofit was incorporated in 2009 and received its tax-exempt status in 2010, according to government records. County property records show that the site is owned by the mosque (An-Nur) and thus exempt from paying property taxes. The building dates from 1969.
The history of the mosque dates back for decades. It was founded, and appears to continue to serve, as a house of worship oriented towards a mostly African-American congregation, as opposed to African-immigrant.
El-Amin has served as Imam at An-Nur for more than 30 years. Former NBA player Khalid El-Amin is his youngest brother.
In the past, both El-Amin and An-Nur have been associated with now-state-attorney-general Keith Ellison. A 2007 Minneapolis Star Tribune profile of then-U.S. Congressman Ellison (quoted in 2010) included this biographical note,
"When he's home, Ellison will attend the Masjid An-Nur mosque on the North Side in Minneapolis."
A 2007 New York Times profile of El-Amin described him as "The Congressman's Imam." Campaign finance databases show a 2011 donation of $500 from El Amin to Ellison's congressional campaign. This year (2026), El Amin donated $250 to the campaign of state Sen. Bobby Joe Champion (D), listing his occupation as Executive Director, Al-Maa'uun.
In its early years, the nonprofit Al-Maa'uun was a relatively modest operation, able to file the IRS 990-EZ form as recently as 2017. Among other activities, it operated a small program under the federal child nutrition program, receiving small amounts of funding from the state Dept. of Education (MDE).
The entire operation really took off with the coming of COVID. The food operation skyrocketed in 2021 and beginning in 2022 the nonprofit added funding from seven (7) other state agencies: the departments of Agriculture (MDA), Corrections (DOC), Employment (DEED), Health (MDH), Human Services (DHS), Public Safety (DHS) and the state Housing Finance Agency (HFA). The dollar amounts total more than $5 million over the past decade, most received in the past three years.
The totals above for DEED include revenue received from a $1 million direct appropriation (earmark) passed by the state legislature in 2023, in a bill sponsored by state Rep. Hodan Hassan (D-MPLS). Hassan no longer serves in the legislature. As you can see above, the grant represented the nonprofit's first funding from DEED.
The $1 million state earmark was part of a $1 billion tsunami of taxpayer cash provided to nonprofits by the all-Democrat-controlled Minnesota government of 2023. MN Reformer wrote about the phenomenon under the headline,
"Minnesota lawmakers gave nonprofits $1.1 billion last year. Will we know if it's well spent?"
The language of the Al-Maa'uun grant notes that the money was directed, "for a grant to Al Maa'uun, formerly the North at Work program, for a strategic intervention program designed to target and connect program participants to meaningful, sustainable living wage employment. This is a onetime appropriation."
North@Work was also mentioned in the earlier (2022) Klobuchar earmark proposal.
State Rep. Esther Agbaje (D) introduced a bill in 2025, to provide Al-Maa'uun with an additional $1 million earmark. The bill did not advance in the legislature, now under split control following the 2024 election.
Al-Maa'uun's earliest success came from operating a free-food program under the auspices of the state Dept. of Education (MDE).
In the early days of the food-fraud scandal (February 2022), I documented the state's 19 largest participating nonprofit food distribution networks in this post. Al-Maa'uun represented the 17th biggest network at the time. The subject of yesterday's post, the New American Development Center (NADC) was the 7th largest network active at that time.
Back to Al-Maa'uun and the Klobuchar earmark. According to Al-Maa'uun's most recent tax return (through year-end 2024, Schedule D), the nonprofit owns no land. The North Lyndale property is owned by the mosque.
In the inevitable political connection, that same tax return for election year 2024 (Schedule I) notes a cash grant of $30,000 given to an entity named Your Vote Our Future at the same address. The 2023 return lists a grant to Your Vote of $55,000.
Viewing Your Vote's Facebook page, you can see a series of posts promoting the candidacy of Sharon El-Amin for Hennepin County Commission, District 2. Scroll back to 2024, you see a post promoting her Minneapolis school board re-election.
In last month's Hennepin County primary election, Sharon finished in second place in District 2, advancing to the November general election. Finishing first in the August primary was the incumbent commissioner Irene Fernando, endorsed by, among others, current U.S. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D).
In corporate records, "Your Vote Our Future" is variously listed as an assumed name of Al-Maa'uun and as a now-defunct, for-profit company listed at the North Lyndale Avenue address.
Sharon currently serves on the Minneapolis school board. She is, of course, Makram's wife. Her campaign for county commission has been endorsed by a number of prominent elected officials, including AG Ellison.
Back to the proposed Klobuchar earmark. Many religious institutions can, and do, directly accept taxpayer money for child nutrition programs and a host of other social service efforts.
The issue here is the potential use of funds for buildings and building improvements on land owned by a religious institution, when the site involved serves a dual purpose. To be clear, the same issue would arise if the building were a Catholic or Lutheran church or a Jewish synagogue.
Although the Klobuchar earmark never went through, and the building project has yet to happen, the episode fits in the pattern of poor vetting of spending priorities by the Senator and her staff.
* * *
Bill Glahn is a Policy Fellow with Center of the American Experiment.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.americanexperiment.org/klobuchar-sought-earmark-for-facility-expansion-at-minneapolis-mosque/
[Category: ThinkTank]
* * *
Klobuchar sought earmark for facility expansion at Minneapolis mosque
Written by Bill Glahn | September 10, 2026
Our tour of questionable Amy Klobuchar earmarks takes us to the north side of Minneapolis today. It's a location where U.S. Sen. Klobuchar once proposed (p. 12) to invest $882,000 of federal taxpayer money in developing a new building on the site of an existing mosque. It does not appear ... Show Full Article MINNETONKA, Minnesota, Sept. 11 -- The Center of the American Experiment, a civic and educational organization that says it creates and advocates policies, issued the following commentary: * * * Klobuchar sought earmark for facility expansion at Minneapolis mosque Written by Bill Glahn | September 10, 2026 Our tour of questionable Amy Klobuchar earmarks takes us to the north side of Minneapolis today. It's a location where U.S. Sen. Klobuchar once proposed (p. 12) to invest $882,000 of federal taxpayer money in developing a new building on the site of an existing mosque. It does not appearthat the grant went through.
This building on North Lyndale Avenue does double duty as the home of the Masjid An-Nur mosque and the related social service nonprofit Al-Maa'uun.
To be clear, upfront: neither entity has been accused of fraud or any other wrongdoing, whatsoever. Unlike other entries in this series, the issue here is the Establishment Clause and the potential use of taxpayer funds for the benefit of a religious institution.
In Sen. Klobuchar's June 9, 2022, earmark disclosure, the proposed Al-Maa'uun earmark is placed in context,
"Al Maa'uun is housed in the Masjid Au-Nur [sic], home to the North Minneapolis Muslim faith community. Community gatherings, religious services, and other community meetings are held in the space."
Klobuchar writes,
"During the pandemic it became apparent Al Maa'uun was in need of more physical space. Designating a Workforce Development Center will create a space for programmatic expansion and community engagement. Al Maa'uun will conduct pre-development work for facility expansion including feasibility studies, exploration reports, ground surveys, and concept planning for a facility to be built on the current parking lot."
It's not clear from Klobuchar's description whether the new building (still unbuilt) would serve the same dual purposes as the existing structure. But the references to the mosque and the space's variety of uses should have been a red flag.
Both the mosque and the nonprofit are headed up by the same man, Imam Makram El-Amin. El-Amin was a 2014 recipient of a prestigious Bush Fellowship. The Al-Maa'uun nonprofit was incorporated in 2009 and received its tax-exempt status in 2010, according to government records. County property records show that the site is owned by the mosque (An-Nur) and thus exempt from paying property taxes. The building dates from 1969.
The history of the mosque dates back for decades. It was founded, and appears to continue to serve, as a house of worship oriented towards a mostly African-American congregation, as opposed to African-immigrant.
El-Amin has served as Imam at An-Nur for more than 30 years. Former NBA player Khalid El-Amin is his youngest brother.
In the past, both El-Amin and An-Nur have been associated with now-state-attorney-general Keith Ellison. A 2007 Minneapolis Star Tribune profile of then-U.S. Congressman Ellison (quoted in 2010) included this biographical note,
"When he's home, Ellison will attend the Masjid An-Nur mosque on the North Side in Minneapolis."
A 2007 New York Times profile of El-Amin described him as "The Congressman's Imam." Campaign finance databases show a 2011 donation of $500 from El Amin to Ellison's congressional campaign. This year (2026), El Amin donated $250 to the campaign of state Sen. Bobby Joe Champion (D), listing his occupation as Executive Director, Al-Maa'uun.
In its early years, the nonprofit Al-Maa'uun was a relatively modest operation, able to file the IRS 990-EZ form as recently as 2017. Among other activities, it operated a small program under the federal child nutrition program, receiving small amounts of funding from the state Dept. of Education (MDE).
The entire operation really took off with the coming of COVID. The food operation skyrocketed in 2021 and beginning in 2022 the nonprofit added funding from seven (7) other state agencies: the departments of Agriculture (MDA), Corrections (DOC), Employment (DEED), Health (MDH), Human Services (DHS), Public Safety (DHS) and the state Housing Finance Agency (HFA). The dollar amounts total more than $5 million over the past decade, most received in the past three years.
The totals above for DEED include revenue received from a $1 million direct appropriation (earmark) passed by the state legislature in 2023, in a bill sponsored by state Rep. Hodan Hassan (D-MPLS). Hassan no longer serves in the legislature. As you can see above, the grant represented the nonprofit's first funding from DEED.
The $1 million state earmark was part of a $1 billion tsunami of taxpayer cash provided to nonprofits by the all-Democrat-controlled Minnesota government of 2023. MN Reformer wrote about the phenomenon under the headline,
"Minnesota lawmakers gave nonprofits $1.1 billion last year. Will we know if it's well spent?"
The language of the Al-Maa'uun grant notes that the money was directed, "for a grant to Al Maa'uun, formerly the North at Work program, for a strategic intervention program designed to target and connect program participants to meaningful, sustainable living wage employment. This is a onetime appropriation."
North@Work was also mentioned in the earlier (2022) Klobuchar earmark proposal.
State Rep. Esther Agbaje (D) introduced a bill in 2025, to provide Al-Maa'uun with an additional $1 million earmark. The bill did not advance in the legislature, now under split control following the 2024 election.
Al-Maa'uun's earliest success came from operating a free-food program under the auspices of the state Dept. of Education (MDE).
In the early days of the food-fraud scandal (February 2022), I documented the state's 19 largest participating nonprofit food distribution networks in this post. Al-Maa'uun represented the 17th biggest network at the time. The subject of yesterday's post, the New American Development Center (NADC) was the 7th largest network active at that time.
Back to Al-Maa'uun and the Klobuchar earmark. According to Al-Maa'uun's most recent tax return (through year-end 2024, Schedule D), the nonprofit owns no land. The North Lyndale property is owned by the mosque.
In the inevitable political connection, that same tax return for election year 2024 (Schedule I) notes a cash grant of $30,000 given to an entity named Your Vote Our Future at the same address. The 2023 return lists a grant to Your Vote of $55,000.
Viewing Your Vote's Facebook page, you can see a series of posts promoting the candidacy of Sharon El-Amin for Hennepin County Commission, District 2. Scroll back to 2024, you see a post promoting her Minneapolis school board re-election.
In last month's Hennepin County primary election, Sharon finished in second place in District 2, advancing to the November general election. Finishing first in the August primary was the incumbent commissioner Irene Fernando, endorsed by, among others, current U.S. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D).
In corporate records, "Your Vote Our Future" is variously listed as an assumed name of Al-Maa'uun and as a now-defunct, for-profit company listed at the North Lyndale Avenue address.
Sharon currently serves on the Minneapolis school board. She is, of course, Makram's wife. Her campaign for county commission has been endorsed by a number of prominent elected officials, including AG Ellison.
Back to the proposed Klobuchar earmark. Many religious institutions can, and do, directly accept taxpayer money for child nutrition programs and a host of other social service efforts.
The issue here is the potential use of funds for buildings and building improvements on land owned by a religious institution, when the site involved serves a dual purpose. To be clear, the same issue would arise if the building were a Catholic or Lutheran church or a Jewish synagogue.
Although the Klobuchar earmark never went through, and the building project has yet to happen, the episode fits in the pattern of poor vetting of spending priorities by the Senator and her staff.
* * *
Bill Glahn is a Policy Fellow with Center of the American Experiment.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.americanexperiment.org/klobuchar-sought-earmark-for-facility-expansion-at-minneapolis-mosque/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Capital Research Center Issues Commentary: Historical Truth - InfluenceWatch Vs. Google Gemini
WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Capital Research Center issued the following commentary:
* * *
Historical truth: InfluenceWatch vs. Google Gemini
When asked a relatively easy question, Google's AI tool provided "intelligence" that was more artificial than real.
By Ken Braun
-
InfluenceWatch (IW) is the Capital Research Center's project to track the influencers who have and continue to shape American public policy. At present, we have nearly 16,000 profiles and more are added every week. IW also features extensive historical profiles covering the New Left that emerged in the 1960s, including domestic ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Capital Research Center issued the following commentary: * * * Historical truth: InfluenceWatch vs. Google Gemini When asked a relatively easy question, Google's AI tool provided "intelligence" that was more artificial than real. By Ken Braun - InfluenceWatch (IW) is the Capital Research Center's project to track the influencers who have and continue to shape American public policy. At present, we have nearly 16,000 profiles and more are added every week. IW also features extensive historical profiles covering the New Left that emerged in the 1960s, including domesticterror groups such as the Weather Underground.
Yesterday I was working on a report about the New Left and wanted to use a quote from the Weather Underground profile. The infamous quote was made in reference to the August 1969 Tate-LaBianca murders that were committed by the followers of cult leader Charles Manson:
Dig it, they murdered those pigs and then ate dinner at their dining table then stuck a fork in their bellies! Wild!
In the IW profile this quote is attributed to Weather Underground leader Bernardine Dohrn, alleged to have said it mere months after the murders took place. One can never be too careful with these things, so even though I wrote the profile (and repeated the attribution in a separate profile of Dohrn), I decided to double check before using it again.
I fed the quote into Gemini, Google's artificial intelligence tool that now automatically pops up at the top of a search query. At this point I didn't want to bias the response from the robot, so I provided only the quote and didn't tell Gemini what to do with it.
This was Gemini's initial reaction:
This quote is a famous and chilling statement made by Susan Atkins, a member of the Manson Family cult, regarding the 1969 Tate-LaBianca murders. She made this remark to her cellmate, Virginia Graham, while in jail, expressing excitement over the brutal killings. The murders were orchestrated by cult leader Charles Manson in an attempt to incite what he called "Helter Skelter"--a apocalyptic race war he believed was prophesied in secret codes within the Beatles' White Album.
This is a hallucination, but you would need to know a bit about the Manson murders to spot the mistake. Tellingly, the lone Wikipedia profile source Gemini provided makes no reference at all to the quote.
Hoping to get Gemini to rethink the error of its ways, but still not wanting to tell it who I was looking for, I asked a cagey follow up question: "Wasn't Atkins accused of being one of the murderers?"
Gemini answered correctly that Atkins was one of the convicted killers and then added background on the murders, still not acting as if it had botched the initial answer.
I presented the obvious problem with Gemini attributing the statement to Atkins: "Then why was she speaking in the third person to the cellmate? You may have misattributed this quote."
This time, Gemini adjusted and pinned the quote on someone else . . . but still not Dohrn:
You are completely correct to question that, and I apologize for the misattribution. . . It was Ronnie Howard's report of this conversation to jail authorities that ultimately gave the Los Angeles Police Department their first major break to solve the Tate-LaBianca murders. [emphasis original]
Gemini even provided two citations to supposedly back up the new claim, one from the New York Times. This was more hallucinations: neither of the sources mention the quote.
So, I tried a third time, this time painting an obvious bullseye on what I wanted so the artificial "intelligence" wouldn't miss it: "Historian Arthur Eckstein attributes this quote to Bernadine Dohrn."
Again, Gemini changed its mind:
You are absolutely right, and I completely missed the mark twice. Thank you for your patience and for bringing the proper historical accuracy to light.
This infamous quote belongs entirely to Bernardine Dohrn, the leader of the radical left-wing militant group the Weather Underground. [emphasis original]
The only citation used by Gemini this time goes to our InfluenceWatch profile of the Weather Underground, which in turn cites Eckstein, who did indeed get the attribution correct. We know this because Dohrn has publicly admitted saying it. There are multiple sources showing this, most notably a June 2009 interview with Dohrn on C-SPAN.
Why didn't Gemini find any of these sources on the first and second attempts? Would it have ever gotten it correct if it hadn't been spoon fed the answer?
A better question: Why trust Google with your history of the radical left when there's InfluenceWatch?
* * *
Ken Braun
As managing editor and director of content of CRC, Ken Braun edits Capital Research magazine. He also conducts investigative research and drafts profiles for InfluenceWatch.org.
* * *
Original text here: https://capitalresearch.org/article/historical-truth-influencewatch-vs-google-gemini/
[Category: ThinkTank]
* * *
Historical truth: InfluenceWatch vs. Google Gemini
When asked a relatively easy question, Google's AI tool provided "intelligence" that was more artificial than real.
By Ken Braun
-
InfluenceWatch (IW) is the Capital Research Center's project to track the influencers who have and continue to shape American public policy. At present, we have nearly 16,000 profiles and more are added every week. IW also features extensive historical profiles covering the New Left that emerged in the 1960s, including domestic ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Capital Research Center issued the following commentary: * * * Historical truth: InfluenceWatch vs. Google Gemini When asked a relatively easy question, Google's AI tool provided "intelligence" that was more artificial than real. By Ken Braun - InfluenceWatch (IW) is the Capital Research Center's project to track the influencers who have and continue to shape American public policy. At present, we have nearly 16,000 profiles and more are added every week. IW also features extensive historical profiles covering the New Left that emerged in the 1960s, including domesticterror groups such as the Weather Underground.
Yesterday I was working on a report about the New Left and wanted to use a quote from the Weather Underground profile. The infamous quote was made in reference to the August 1969 Tate-LaBianca murders that were committed by the followers of cult leader Charles Manson:
Dig it, they murdered those pigs and then ate dinner at their dining table then stuck a fork in their bellies! Wild!
In the IW profile this quote is attributed to Weather Underground leader Bernardine Dohrn, alleged to have said it mere months after the murders took place. One can never be too careful with these things, so even though I wrote the profile (and repeated the attribution in a separate profile of Dohrn), I decided to double check before using it again.
I fed the quote into Gemini, Google's artificial intelligence tool that now automatically pops up at the top of a search query. At this point I didn't want to bias the response from the robot, so I provided only the quote and didn't tell Gemini what to do with it.
This was Gemini's initial reaction:
This quote is a famous and chilling statement made by Susan Atkins, a member of the Manson Family cult, regarding the 1969 Tate-LaBianca murders. She made this remark to her cellmate, Virginia Graham, while in jail, expressing excitement over the brutal killings. The murders were orchestrated by cult leader Charles Manson in an attempt to incite what he called "Helter Skelter"--a apocalyptic race war he believed was prophesied in secret codes within the Beatles' White Album.
This is a hallucination, but you would need to know a bit about the Manson murders to spot the mistake. Tellingly, the lone Wikipedia profile source Gemini provided makes no reference at all to the quote.
Hoping to get Gemini to rethink the error of its ways, but still not wanting to tell it who I was looking for, I asked a cagey follow up question: "Wasn't Atkins accused of being one of the murderers?"
Gemini answered correctly that Atkins was one of the convicted killers and then added background on the murders, still not acting as if it had botched the initial answer.
I presented the obvious problem with Gemini attributing the statement to Atkins: "Then why was she speaking in the third person to the cellmate? You may have misattributed this quote."
This time, Gemini adjusted and pinned the quote on someone else . . . but still not Dohrn:
You are completely correct to question that, and I apologize for the misattribution. . . It was Ronnie Howard's report of this conversation to jail authorities that ultimately gave the Los Angeles Police Department their first major break to solve the Tate-LaBianca murders. [emphasis original]
Gemini even provided two citations to supposedly back up the new claim, one from the New York Times. This was more hallucinations: neither of the sources mention the quote.
So, I tried a third time, this time painting an obvious bullseye on what I wanted so the artificial "intelligence" wouldn't miss it: "Historian Arthur Eckstein attributes this quote to Bernadine Dohrn."
Again, Gemini changed its mind:
You are absolutely right, and I completely missed the mark twice. Thank you for your patience and for bringing the proper historical accuracy to light.
This infamous quote belongs entirely to Bernardine Dohrn, the leader of the radical left-wing militant group the Weather Underground. [emphasis original]
The only citation used by Gemini this time goes to our InfluenceWatch profile of the Weather Underground, which in turn cites Eckstein, who did indeed get the attribution correct. We know this because Dohrn has publicly admitted saying it. There are multiple sources showing this, most notably a June 2009 interview with Dohrn on C-SPAN.
Why didn't Gemini find any of these sources on the first and second attempts? Would it have ever gotten it correct if it hadn't been spoon fed the answer?
A better question: Why trust Google with your history of the radical left when there's InfluenceWatch?
* * *
Ken Braun
As managing editor and director of content of CRC, Ken Braun edits Capital Research magazine. He also conducts investigative research and drafts profiles for InfluenceWatch.org.
* * *
Original text here: https://capitalresearch.org/article/historical-truth-influencewatch-vs-google-gemini/
[Category: ThinkTank]
CSIS Issues Commentary: Building Quantum-Ready Infrastructure - Preparing for the Physical Demands of Quantum Computing
WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary:
* * *
Building Quantum-Ready Infrastructure: Preparing for the Physical Demands of Quantum Computing
Commentary by Hideki Tomoshige
Published September 10, 2026
Quantum computing is moving from laboratory demonstration toward early commercialization, creating a policy challenge that extends beyond funding research or improving quantum bit (qubit) performance. If the United States wants to lead in quantum technologies, it will need to prepare the physical infrastructure that commercialization ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary: * * * Building Quantum-Ready Infrastructure: Preparing for the Physical Demands of Quantum Computing Commentary by Hideki Tomoshige Published September 10, 2026 Quantum computing is moving from laboratory demonstration toward early commercialization, creating a policy challenge that extends beyond funding research or improving quantum bit (qubit) performance. If the United States wants to lead in quantum technologies, it will need to prepare the physical infrastructure that commercializationwill require by hardware pathway: Superconducting systems could strain cryogenic and helium-3 supply chains, while neutral atom and trapped-ion systems could strain laser, optics, and vacuum supply chains. And in both cases, physical inputs will determine how quickly quantum computing can scale.
The policy risk is that these infrastructure needs will be addressed only after demand accelerates. AI's energy bottlenecks show what can happen when infrastructure planning lags deployment, but quantum's constraints will not be identical. Its most important needs are architecture-specific supply chains, as well as the workforce and regulatory readiness required to operate them. Policymakers still have time to act before these constraints become strategic vulnerabilities.
The Quantum Infrastructure Challenge
Because quantum computing remains at an early stage of development, governments, firms, laboratories, and universities have a rare planning window. The difficulty is that quantum does not point to a single infrastructure blueprint: Different architectures impose different demands on power, cooling, materials, and specialized equipment.
* Superconducting and Silicon Spin-Based Architectures: These systems are particularly dependent on dilution refrigerators, which can cool quantum systems to roughly 10-20 millikelvin. They rely on helium-3, low-temperature electronics, specialized manufacturing capacity, and gas-handling systems. For these architectures, cryogenic supply chains are poised to become as important as access to electricity.
* Neutral Atom and Trapped-Ion Architectures: These systems present a different infrastructure profile. They typically require ultra-high-vacuum environments, high-power and highly stable lasers, precision optics, optical control systems, and specialized vacuum equipment. Although some trapped-ion systems operate in cryogenic environments, these architectures generally do not require dilution refrigerators. Their most important bottlenecks are therefore more likely to emerge in lasers, optics, and vacuum technologies than in helium-3.
These contrasting architectures show why quantum infrastructure cannot be planned around a single technical pathway. Electricity demand will matter, but it is unlikely to be the first or only constraint; the binding inputs will vary by architecture, deployment pathway, and scale.
A recent study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory illustrates why quantum infrastructure planning should extend beyond the electric grid. The study examined operational resource requirements--including electricity, water, nitrogen, helium, and helium-3--across six scenarios for fault-tolerant superconducting quantum computing through 2045. Its central lesson is not that quantum will simply replicate AI's power demands, but that superconducting quantum systems may be constrained by cryogenic systems, helium-3 availability, cooling infrastructure, and specialized manufacturing capacity. Quantum infrastructure is therefore not only a power problem; it is an architecture-specific industrial supply chain challenge.
Quantum computing also depends on critical raw materials. The materials landscape for qubits spans elemental silicon, III-V semiconductors, diamond, aluminum, and rare earth metals, with different architectures requiring different materials, fabrication processes, and supply chains.
* * *
Figure 1. Materials and Minerals Used in Quantum Systems
* * *
This physical stack makes quantum infrastructure a broader policy issue than the procurement of quantum processors. Enabling commercialization will also require policies that strengthen supply chains and support companies able to manufacture and maintain cryostats, recycle scarce cryogenic gases, build reliable laser and optical systems, secure high-purity materials, train specialized technicians, and connect facilities to sufficient power and cooling capacity.
* * *
Table 1: Quantum Infrastructure Needs and Policy Implications
* * *
These requirements suggest that quantum readiness should be treated as an industrial infrastructure challenge, not simply a computing challenge. That distinction matters because quantum's infrastructure constraints will differ from AI's, even as AI offers a useful warning about the costs of delayed planning.
Lessons from AI's Energy Demand Surge
The AI comparison is useful not because quantum computing will follow the same demand curve, but because AI shows the consequences of infrastructure planning that trails deployment. Quantum computing's commercial demand trajectory remains far less certain than AI's, but even if some demand accelerates, energy systems, permitting processes, supply chains, and capital markets may struggle to adjust quickly enough. They are less mature than those supporting semiconductor fabrication or data center construction today.
The surge in AI data center demand is already forcing the United States to expand energy infrastructure faster than expected. BloombergNEF reported that capital expenditure by the world's 14 largest data center service companies is expected to reach nearly $750 billion in 2026, up from less than $450 billion in 2025. Of the data centers under construction in the United States as of September 2025, 75 percent are expected to consume more than 23 gigawatts of energy. By 2030, peak energy demand is estimated to add the equivalent of Texas's entire electricity consumption, about 84 gigawatts, to national demand, which has remained relatively flat since the 1970s. Utilities, grid operators, and federal and state regulators are now responding to a wave of demand that was difficult to anticipate only a few years ago.
AI also illustrates how efficiency gains can increase total resource demand when lower costs enable more use cases, more queries, and broader deployment. This dynamic resembles the Jevons Paradox, originally used to describe coal consumption in nineteenth-century Britain. If quantum systems become more capable and commercially valuable, similar demand dynamics could emerge around specialized facilities, components, and materials even before electricity becomes the dominant constraint.
The lesson for quantum is not to assume an identical demand trajectory, but to plan before constraints harden. Once commercial demand accelerates, scaling energy systems, siting options, grid capacity, specialized facilities, and supply chains becomes far more difficult. The result is not only an economic challenge but also a national security concern.
Toward Preemptive Quantum-Ready Infrastructure
Lessons from the current AI buildout should shape U.S. quantum policy now. Because quantum computing has not yet reached AI-like scale, the United States still has time to build a more anticipatory infrastructure strategy. Commercialization may accelerate in the early 2030s, but the supply chains, facilities, workforce pipelines, and permitting pathways needed to support deployment will take years to prepare. A preemptive approach should focus on five priorities:
1. Conduct scenario planning for multiple quantum futures. Federal agencies should assess potential constraints across cooling water, helium-3, helium-4, rare earths, specialty semiconductors, photonics, cryostats, lasers, and high-purity materials. Scenarios may include a superconducting-system-dominant future, a diverse-modality future, and a future in which supply chain breakthroughs reduce dependence on key components such as dilution refrigerators. These estimates should identify where early intervention may be needed.
2. Strengthen supply chain resilience before shortages emerge. If scenario assessments reveal vulnerabilities in helium-3, helium-4, rare earths, specialty semiconductors, or high-purity materials, the U.S. government should support diversification through targeted incentives, commercialization support, and research and development These tools could help build domestic and allied capacity in cryogenic technology, lasers, integrated photonics, and precision optics, especially where suppliers are focused on faster-growing AI markets.
3. Prepare facilities and permitting pathways for quantum deployment. The federal government should consider adapting policy tools from adjacent infrastructure-intensive technology sectors to quantum. Just as policymakers are streamlining permitting for AI data centers and related infrastructure, federal and state agencies should develop flexible frameworks for quantum computing facilities, cryostat manufacturing plants, and related supplier infrastructure. Many current quantum projects are located on national or state-owned property where review processes may be easier to manage, but future commercialization could require more siting options and faster deployment pathways.
4. Build the workforce needed to operate and maintain quantum infrastructure. Quantum readiness will require technicians and engineers who understand cryogenic systems, vacuum equipment, lasers, photonics, control electronics, and facility operations. Workforce investments should therefore extend beyond quantum information science to include the industrial capabilities needed to install, service, and scale quantum systems.
5. Use pilot facilities to collect operational data. Policymakers should treat early quantum deployments as learning platforms, not simply demonstrations. Department of Energy user facilities and pilot deployments such as Quantum Genesis can provide real-world data on resource use, maintenance needs, cooling-water demand, helium losses, supply delays, and facility constraints. This can help government and industry update planning assumptions before deployment scales.
Conclusion
Quantum-ready infrastructure must be understood as more than electricity supply. As quantum computing moves toward commercialization, the United States will need reliable power, cooling-water systems, cryogenic gases, precision components, specialized facilities, resilient supplies of critical materials, and the workforce needed to operate and maintain them. AI's infrastructure experience reinforces the central lesson of this analysis: When demand accelerates faster than planning, energy systems, permitting processes, capital markets, and supply chains can become strategic constraints.
The United States still has a window to reduce that risk in quantum computing. A quantum-ready infrastructure strategy should map architecture-specific requirements, strengthen vulnerable supply chains, prepare facilities and permitting pathways, build the necessary technical workforce, and use early deployments to collect operational data. These steps will not eliminate uncertainty, but they can reduce the risk that resource bottlenecks might slow commercialization, weaken U.S. leadership, or become strategic vulnerabilities. The question is not whether quantum infrastructure will matter, but whether the United States will prepare before it becomes a constraint.
* * *
Hideki Tomoshige is a fellow with Renewing American Innovation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
The author would like to thank David L McCollum, a distinguished R&D staff member in the Energy Science and Technology Directorate at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, for sharing his insights in preparation for this article.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/building-quantum-ready-infrastructure-preparing-physical-demands-quantum-computing
[Category: ThinkTank]
* * *
Building Quantum-Ready Infrastructure: Preparing for the Physical Demands of Quantum Computing
Commentary by Hideki Tomoshige
Published September 10, 2026
Quantum computing is moving from laboratory demonstration toward early commercialization, creating a policy challenge that extends beyond funding research or improving quantum bit (qubit) performance. If the United States wants to lead in quantum technologies, it will need to prepare the physical infrastructure that commercialization ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary: * * * Building Quantum-Ready Infrastructure: Preparing for the Physical Demands of Quantum Computing Commentary by Hideki Tomoshige Published September 10, 2026 Quantum computing is moving from laboratory demonstration toward early commercialization, creating a policy challenge that extends beyond funding research or improving quantum bit (qubit) performance. If the United States wants to lead in quantum technologies, it will need to prepare the physical infrastructure that commercializationwill require by hardware pathway: Superconducting systems could strain cryogenic and helium-3 supply chains, while neutral atom and trapped-ion systems could strain laser, optics, and vacuum supply chains. And in both cases, physical inputs will determine how quickly quantum computing can scale.
The policy risk is that these infrastructure needs will be addressed only after demand accelerates. AI's energy bottlenecks show what can happen when infrastructure planning lags deployment, but quantum's constraints will not be identical. Its most important needs are architecture-specific supply chains, as well as the workforce and regulatory readiness required to operate them. Policymakers still have time to act before these constraints become strategic vulnerabilities.
The Quantum Infrastructure Challenge
Because quantum computing remains at an early stage of development, governments, firms, laboratories, and universities have a rare planning window. The difficulty is that quantum does not point to a single infrastructure blueprint: Different architectures impose different demands on power, cooling, materials, and specialized equipment.
* Superconducting and Silicon Spin-Based Architectures: These systems are particularly dependent on dilution refrigerators, which can cool quantum systems to roughly 10-20 millikelvin. They rely on helium-3, low-temperature electronics, specialized manufacturing capacity, and gas-handling systems. For these architectures, cryogenic supply chains are poised to become as important as access to electricity.
* Neutral Atom and Trapped-Ion Architectures: These systems present a different infrastructure profile. They typically require ultra-high-vacuum environments, high-power and highly stable lasers, precision optics, optical control systems, and specialized vacuum equipment. Although some trapped-ion systems operate in cryogenic environments, these architectures generally do not require dilution refrigerators. Their most important bottlenecks are therefore more likely to emerge in lasers, optics, and vacuum technologies than in helium-3.
These contrasting architectures show why quantum infrastructure cannot be planned around a single technical pathway. Electricity demand will matter, but it is unlikely to be the first or only constraint; the binding inputs will vary by architecture, deployment pathway, and scale.
A recent study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory illustrates why quantum infrastructure planning should extend beyond the electric grid. The study examined operational resource requirements--including electricity, water, nitrogen, helium, and helium-3--across six scenarios for fault-tolerant superconducting quantum computing through 2045. Its central lesson is not that quantum will simply replicate AI's power demands, but that superconducting quantum systems may be constrained by cryogenic systems, helium-3 availability, cooling infrastructure, and specialized manufacturing capacity. Quantum infrastructure is therefore not only a power problem; it is an architecture-specific industrial supply chain challenge.
Quantum computing also depends on critical raw materials. The materials landscape for qubits spans elemental silicon, III-V semiconductors, diamond, aluminum, and rare earth metals, with different architectures requiring different materials, fabrication processes, and supply chains.
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Figure 1. Materials and Minerals Used in Quantum Systems
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This physical stack makes quantum infrastructure a broader policy issue than the procurement of quantum processors. Enabling commercialization will also require policies that strengthen supply chains and support companies able to manufacture and maintain cryostats, recycle scarce cryogenic gases, build reliable laser and optical systems, secure high-purity materials, train specialized technicians, and connect facilities to sufficient power and cooling capacity.
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Table 1: Quantum Infrastructure Needs and Policy Implications
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These requirements suggest that quantum readiness should be treated as an industrial infrastructure challenge, not simply a computing challenge. That distinction matters because quantum's infrastructure constraints will differ from AI's, even as AI offers a useful warning about the costs of delayed planning.
Lessons from AI's Energy Demand Surge
The AI comparison is useful not because quantum computing will follow the same demand curve, but because AI shows the consequences of infrastructure planning that trails deployment. Quantum computing's commercial demand trajectory remains far less certain than AI's, but even if some demand accelerates, energy systems, permitting processes, supply chains, and capital markets may struggle to adjust quickly enough. They are less mature than those supporting semiconductor fabrication or data center construction today.
The surge in AI data center demand is already forcing the United States to expand energy infrastructure faster than expected. BloombergNEF reported that capital expenditure by the world's 14 largest data center service companies is expected to reach nearly $750 billion in 2026, up from less than $450 billion in 2025. Of the data centers under construction in the United States as of September 2025, 75 percent are expected to consume more than 23 gigawatts of energy. By 2030, peak energy demand is estimated to add the equivalent of Texas's entire electricity consumption, about 84 gigawatts, to national demand, which has remained relatively flat since the 1970s. Utilities, grid operators, and federal and state regulators are now responding to a wave of demand that was difficult to anticipate only a few years ago.
AI also illustrates how efficiency gains can increase total resource demand when lower costs enable more use cases, more queries, and broader deployment. This dynamic resembles the Jevons Paradox, originally used to describe coal consumption in nineteenth-century Britain. If quantum systems become more capable and commercially valuable, similar demand dynamics could emerge around specialized facilities, components, and materials even before electricity becomes the dominant constraint.
The lesson for quantum is not to assume an identical demand trajectory, but to plan before constraints harden. Once commercial demand accelerates, scaling energy systems, siting options, grid capacity, specialized facilities, and supply chains becomes far more difficult. The result is not only an economic challenge but also a national security concern.
Toward Preemptive Quantum-Ready Infrastructure
Lessons from the current AI buildout should shape U.S. quantum policy now. Because quantum computing has not yet reached AI-like scale, the United States still has time to build a more anticipatory infrastructure strategy. Commercialization may accelerate in the early 2030s, but the supply chains, facilities, workforce pipelines, and permitting pathways needed to support deployment will take years to prepare. A preemptive approach should focus on five priorities:
1. Conduct scenario planning for multiple quantum futures. Federal agencies should assess potential constraints across cooling water, helium-3, helium-4, rare earths, specialty semiconductors, photonics, cryostats, lasers, and high-purity materials. Scenarios may include a superconducting-system-dominant future, a diverse-modality future, and a future in which supply chain breakthroughs reduce dependence on key components such as dilution refrigerators. These estimates should identify where early intervention may be needed.
2. Strengthen supply chain resilience before shortages emerge. If scenario assessments reveal vulnerabilities in helium-3, helium-4, rare earths, specialty semiconductors, or high-purity materials, the U.S. government should support diversification through targeted incentives, commercialization support, and research and development These tools could help build domestic and allied capacity in cryogenic technology, lasers, integrated photonics, and precision optics, especially where suppliers are focused on faster-growing AI markets.
3. Prepare facilities and permitting pathways for quantum deployment. The federal government should consider adapting policy tools from adjacent infrastructure-intensive technology sectors to quantum. Just as policymakers are streamlining permitting for AI data centers and related infrastructure, federal and state agencies should develop flexible frameworks for quantum computing facilities, cryostat manufacturing plants, and related supplier infrastructure. Many current quantum projects are located on national or state-owned property where review processes may be easier to manage, but future commercialization could require more siting options and faster deployment pathways.
4. Build the workforce needed to operate and maintain quantum infrastructure. Quantum readiness will require technicians and engineers who understand cryogenic systems, vacuum equipment, lasers, photonics, control electronics, and facility operations. Workforce investments should therefore extend beyond quantum information science to include the industrial capabilities needed to install, service, and scale quantum systems.
5. Use pilot facilities to collect operational data. Policymakers should treat early quantum deployments as learning platforms, not simply demonstrations. Department of Energy user facilities and pilot deployments such as Quantum Genesis can provide real-world data on resource use, maintenance needs, cooling-water demand, helium losses, supply delays, and facility constraints. This can help government and industry update planning assumptions before deployment scales.
Conclusion
Quantum-ready infrastructure must be understood as more than electricity supply. As quantum computing moves toward commercialization, the United States will need reliable power, cooling-water systems, cryogenic gases, precision components, specialized facilities, resilient supplies of critical materials, and the workforce needed to operate and maintain them. AI's infrastructure experience reinforces the central lesson of this analysis: When demand accelerates faster than planning, energy systems, permitting processes, capital markets, and supply chains can become strategic constraints.
The United States still has a window to reduce that risk in quantum computing. A quantum-ready infrastructure strategy should map architecture-specific requirements, strengthen vulnerable supply chains, prepare facilities and permitting pathways, build the necessary technical workforce, and use early deployments to collect operational data. These steps will not eliminate uncertainty, but they can reduce the risk that resource bottlenecks might slow commercialization, weaken U.S. leadership, or become strategic vulnerabilities. The question is not whether quantum infrastructure will matter, but whether the United States will prepare before it becomes a constraint.
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Hideki Tomoshige is a fellow with Renewing American Innovation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
The author would like to thank David L McCollum, a distinguished R&D staff member in the Energy Science and Technology Directorate at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, for sharing his insights in preparation for this article.
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Original text here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/building-quantum-ready-infrastructure-preparing-physical-demands-quantum-computing
[Category: ThinkTank]
CSIS Issues Commentary Entitled 'Where's the Beef This Time?'
WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary:
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Where's the Beef This Time?
Commentary by William Alan Reinsch
Published September 10, 2026
Those of us of a certain age, namely mine, remember the 1984 presidential election campaign. Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in a landslide, but Mondale arguably had the best slogan. It came from a Wendy's commercial featuring a little old lady staring at an enormous bun containing a tiny burger and yelling, "Where's the beef?" The ad went the equivalent of what was viral in the 1980s, ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary: * * * Where's the Beef This Time? Commentary by William Alan Reinsch Published September 10, 2026 Those of us of a certain age, namely mine, remember the 1984 presidential election campaign. Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in a landslide, but Mondale arguably had the best slogan. It came from a Wendy's commercial featuring a little old lady staring at an enormous bun containing a tiny burger and yelling, "Where's the beef?" The ad went the equivalent of what was viral in the 1980s,and Mondale used the catchphrase in an attempt to dramatize the lack of substance in a Democratic opponent's campaign proposals during the primary. While it produced a lot of laughs and helped him get the nomination, it obviously didn't convince anyone in the general election, since Mondale won only his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia. This week's column is also about beef because it is back in the news, this time as a genuine policy issue.
As with many things these days, beef prices are high. In the last year, they have increased between 9 and 14 percent, depending on the cut. At the low end, ground beef--the stuff of burgers--has gone up 9 percent. Roasts are up 13.5 percent. Looking back five years, beef prices are up 57 percent. Prices of most things have been going up thanks to inflation, but beef prices, like gasoline prices, have become a symbol of what is happening in the economy. People are angry and upset, and there is widespread agreement that inflation will be an issue in the midterm elections. Beef is once again a metaphor, although not the same one as in 1984.
How did we get to this point, and what can we do about it? The first question is easier than the second. While politicians of each party, as usual, blame the other, it appears in many ways to be the consequence of old-fashioned economics--the relationship between supply and demand. Supply has shrunk while demand has remained high. In a market economy, that means higher prices. Supply is down because of drought and higher operating costs, which are also the product of inflation. Drought throughout the West and Midwest has meant less grass, hay, and water, which has forced farmers and ranchers to sell their cattle earlier to save the cost of feeding them rather than saving them for breeding. (The extended drought is most likely the consequence of climate change, but that is a topic for another column.)
At the same time, farm operating costs have gone up. Diesel fuel, which powers most farm equipment, is at a record high. Fertilizer is more expensive, in part because of the Ukraine war and tariffs. Because there is less grass due to drought, farmers have to buy more processed feed, which is more expensive. High interest rates add to the problem, since farmers annually borrow at the beginning of the season and then repay the loans when they sell their crops or cattle. These are all factors that encourage farmers to sell their herds early--or, in the case of smaller farms, to go out of the cattle business entirely. In addition, raising calves to market weight takes at least 30 months, so rebuilding herds--the correct solution--is a long-term proposition. There are also trade-related factors. The arrival of the New World screwworm in the United States led, until recently, to an embargo on cattle entering from Mexico, and tariffs on imported beef also contributed to price increases.
Finally, and perhaps most controversial, is the role of meat-packing companies, which buy the cattle and then slaughter and market the products. The sector is dominated by four large companies--JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill, and National Beef--which economists argue create an oligopoly that limits farmers' leverage in selling their cattle, keeping prices they get for their cattle low while enabling the companies to maintain high prices to consumers. At the same time, the industry's costs have gone up, including higher labor costs, driven in significant part by the administration's immigration policies. The companies are currently subject to a federal antitrust investigation led by the Department of Justice, but no results have been announced.
In the "what do we do about it" category, recent administration actions have aroused controversy in the ranching community. Trump is trying to lower ground beef prices by increasing the import quota subject to lower tariffs contingent on a commitment to sell the product at a 25 percent discount. It is too soon to know whether that will work--experts are skeptical--but it has irritated ranchers who believe it will lead to lower cattle prices for them. In this case, I have a bit of sympathy for the president. Although his policies on tariffs and immigration have clearly made the problem worse, it has developed over a long period of time, and it will take a long period of time to solve it. Quick fixes are not going to do the job.
A creative set of proposals is the Department of Agriculture's Ranchers First Initiative. It has several elements, but the two particularly interesting ones are an insurance program that would essentially pay farmers to keep heifers for later breeding by matching their slaughter price and a program to strengthen independent and midsize processors. These are designed to deal with the two biggest problems: shrinking herd size and concentration in the processing industry. This year's election cycle may once again feature ads about beef, but instead of asking where it is, they'll be asking why it costs so much.
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William A. Reinsch is a senior adviser (non-resident) and Scholl Chair emeritus with the Economics Program and Scholl Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He can be reached at wreinsch7@gmail.com.
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Original text here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/wheres-beef-time
[Category: ThinkTank]
* * *
Where's the Beef This Time?
Commentary by William Alan Reinsch
Published September 10, 2026
Those of us of a certain age, namely mine, remember the 1984 presidential election campaign. Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in a landslide, but Mondale arguably had the best slogan. It came from a Wendy's commercial featuring a little old lady staring at an enormous bun containing a tiny burger and yelling, "Where's the beef?" The ad went the equivalent of what was viral in the 1980s, ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary: * * * Where's the Beef This Time? Commentary by William Alan Reinsch Published September 10, 2026 Those of us of a certain age, namely mine, remember the 1984 presidential election campaign. Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in a landslide, but Mondale arguably had the best slogan. It came from a Wendy's commercial featuring a little old lady staring at an enormous bun containing a tiny burger and yelling, "Where's the beef?" The ad went the equivalent of what was viral in the 1980s,and Mondale used the catchphrase in an attempt to dramatize the lack of substance in a Democratic opponent's campaign proposals during the primary. While it produced a lot of laughs and helped him get the nomination, it obviously didn't convince anyone in the general election, since Mondale won only his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia. This week's column is also about beef because it is back in the news, this time as a genuine policy issue.
As with many things these days, beef prices are high. In the last year, they have increased between 9 and 14 percent, depending on the cut. At the low end, ground beef--the stuff of burgers--has gone up 9 percent. Roasts are up 13.5 percent. Looking back five years, beef prices are up 57 percent. Prices of most things have been going up thanks to inflation, but beef prices, like gasoline prices, have become a symbol of what is happening in the economy. People are angry and upset, and there is widespread agreement that inflation will be an issue in the midterm elections. Beef is once again a metaphor, although not the same one as in 1984.
How did we get to this point, and what can we do about it? The first question is easier than the second. While politicians of each party, as usual, blame the other, it appears in many ways to be the consequence of old-fashioned economics--the relationship between supply and demand. Supply has shrunk while demand has remained high. In a market economy, that means higher prices. Supply is down because of drought and higher operating costs, which are also the product of inflation. Drought throughout the West and Midwest has meant less grass, hay, and water, which has forced farmers and ranchers to sell their cattle earlier to save the cost of feeding them rather than saving them for breeding. (The extended drought is most likely the consequence of climate change, but that is a topic for another column.)
At the same time, farm operating costs have gone up. Diesel fuel, which powers most farm equipment, is at a record high. Fertilizer is more expensive, in part because of the Ukraine war and tariffs. Because there is less grass due to drought, farmers have to buy more processed feed, which is more expensive. High interest rates add to the problem, since farmers annually borrow at the beginning of the season and then repay the loans when they sell their crops or cattle. These are all factors that encourage farmers to sell their herds early--or, in the case of smaller farms, to go out of the cattle business entirely. In addition, raising calves to market weight takes at least 30 months, so rebuilding herds--the correct solution--is a long-term proposition. There are also trade-related factors. The arrival of the New World screwworm in the United States led, until recently, to an embargo on cattle entering from Mexico, and tariffs on imported beef also contributed to price increases.
Finally, and perhaps most controversial, is the role of meat-packing companies, which buy the cattle and then slaughter and market the products. The sector is dominated by four large companies--JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill, and National Beef--which economists argue create an oligopoly that limits farmers' leverage in selling their cattle, keeping prices they get for their cattle low while enabling the companies to maintain high prices to consumers. At the same time, the industry's costs have gone up, including higher labor costs, driven in significant part by the administration's immigration policies. The companies are currently subject to a federal antitrust investigation led by the Department of Justice, but no results have been announced.
In the "what do we do about it" category, recent administration actions have aroused controversy in the ranching community. Trump is trying to lower ground beef prices by increasing the import quota subject to lower tariffs contingent on a commitment to sell the product at a 25 percent discount. It is too soon to know whether that will work--experts are skeptical--but it has irritated ranchers who believe it will lead to lower cattle prices for them. In this case, I have a bit of sympathy for the president. Although his policies on tariffs and immigration have clearly made the problem worse, it has developed over a long period of time, and it will take a long period of time to solve it. Quick fixes are not going to do the job.
A creative set of proposals is the Department of Agriculture's Ranchers First Initiative. It has several elements, but the two particularly interesting ones are an insurance program that would essentially pay farmers to keep heifers for later breeding by matching their slaughter price and a program to strengthen independent and midsize processors. These are designed to deal with the two biggest problems: shrinking herd size and concentration in the processing industry. This year's election cycle may once again feature ads about beef, but instead of asking where it is, they'll be asking why it costs so much.
* * *
William A. Reinsch is a senior adviser (non-resident) and Scholl Chair emeritus with the Economics Program and Scholl Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He can be reached at wreinsch7@gmail.com.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/wheres-beef-time
[Category: ThinkTank]
