Think Tanks
Think Tanks
Here's a look at documents from think tanks
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AFPI Applauds Supreme Court Stay in Texas Redistricting Case
WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following news release on Dec. 4, 2025:* * *
AFPI Applauds Supreme Court Stay in Texas Redistricting Case
The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) today praised the U.S. Supreme Court for issuing a stay in Abbott v. League of United Latin American Citizens, allowing Texas to proceed with its duly enacted 2025 congressional map. AFPI represented numerous senior elections officials across Texas during the appeals process, after the lower court left Texas counties with impossible choices and unattainable deadlines.
AFPI, on ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following news release on Dec. 4, 2025: * * * AFPI Applauds Supreme Court Stay in Texas Redistricting Case The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) today praised the U.S. Supreme Court for issuing a stay in Abbott v. League of United Latin American Citizens, allowing Texas to proceed with its duly enacted 2025 congressional map. AFPI represented numerous senior elections officials across Texas during the appeals process, after the lower court left Texas counties with impossible choices and unattainable deadlines. AFPI, onbehalf of six senior Texas election officials, urged the Court to restore clarity and prevent conflicting legal mandates that left public servants in untenable positions. The district court's injunction created a no-win scenario, ordering election officials to administer elections under a repealed map that no longer exists under Texas law, while ignoring the real-world deadlines and legal obligations of state officials. SCOTUS agreed, finding that Texas is likely to prevail on the merits and that the lower court failed to apply governing legal standards.
"This is a victory for common sense and constitutional discipline," said Leigh Ann O'Neill, AFPI's Chief Legal Affairs Officer. "Our clients were facing the impossible -- follow state law and risk contempt of court or obey the injunction and risk criminal liability. SCOTUS rightly stepped in to prevent irreparable harm."
In its reply brief, Texas cited AFPI's amicus brief three times to help establish the irreparable harm inflicted by the lower court's decision. In issuing its order, the Court relied on that reasoning, saying: "Texas has also made a strong showing of irreparable harm and that the equities and public interest favor it... The District Court improperly inserted itself into an active primary campaign, causing much confusion and upsetting the delicate federal-state balance in elections."
"When federal courts impose vague or contradictory election orders, it undermines trust and destabilizes the rule of law," said Ken Blackwell, Chair for Election Integrity at AFPI. Because the lower court improperly inserted itself into active primary campaigns, just days before the Texas filing deadline, and tried to stop months of hard work by Texas's elections officials, SCOTUS had to step in.
AFPI will continue to support litigation efforts that uphold constitutional process and ensure election integrity without judicial overreach.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/issues/afpi-applauds-supreme-court-stay-in-texas-redistricting-case
[Category: ThinkTank]
Week in Review: Exposing Academic Rot
PHOENIX, Arizona, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- The Goldwater Institute posted the following news:* * *
Week in Review: Exposing Academic Rot
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Academic journals play a key role in higher education's advancement of human knowledgeuniversities use them to judge the quality of their faculty, and researchers who get published are more likely to receive tenure and promotion. But a new Goldwater Institute report shows how that system is skewedwith devastating consequenceswhen ideologues take control and abandon merit-based scholarship in favor of radical agendas.
The report, Peer Review Gone ... Show Full Article PHOENIX, Arizona, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- The Goldwater Institute posted the following news: * * * Week in Review: Exposing Academic Rot * Academic journals play a key role in higher education's advancement of human knowledgeuniversities use them to judge the quality of their faculty, and researchers who get published are more likely to receive tenure and promotion. But a new Goldwater Institute report shows how that system is skewedwith devastating consequenceswhen ideologues take control and abandon merit-based scholarship in favor of radical agendas. The report, Peer Review GoneWild, explains how a group of activist professors dubbed the "Feminist Collective" hijacked the prominent American Political Science Review and used it as a tool in their woke crusade against alleged systemic oppression. The editors actively favored submissions steeped in an ideologically charged policy agenda and promised to institute race- and sex-based discrimination in order to provide an easier path to the peer-review process for women and "scholars of colour."
As ideological agendas replace the pursuit of truth at leading academic journals, it's clear that reform is needed. That's why the Goldwater Institute is proposing the American Higher Education Restoration Act, a model policy aimed at restoring scholarly quality and quality teaching to public universities.
Read more here.
Fighting for Open Government at the Rhode Island Supreme Court
Parents should have the right to look behind the curtain to see how school policies that affect their kids are shaped. So, when a Rhode Island school district refused to let a local mom attend meetings of its Black, Indigenous & People of Color (BIPOC) Advisory Board, the Goldwater Institute sued. On Tuesday, Goldwater attorneys appeared before the Rhode Island Supreme Court to again argue for open and transparent government.
Rhode Island's Open Meetings Act states that every meeting of "all public bodies shall be open to the public." That should certainly apply to the South Kingstown School Committee's BIPOC Advisory Board, which was created by the district, funded by taxpayers, and entrusted with advising the committee on matters of profound public importance. But when local mom Nicole Solas asked to attend its meetings, the school committee said no. That's not just wrong, it's against the law.
Public business should not be conducted behind closed doors, which is why the Goldwater Institute will always fight for government transparency from coast to coast.
Read more here.
Exploring the Life and Mind of Benjamin Franklin, American Visionary
Did you miss the Goldwater Institute's recent webinar about the life and ideas of Benjamin Franklin, or do you wish you could watch it again? Well, you're in luckGoldwater has published a recording of the event for you to explore at your convenience.
In the webinar, the Goldwater Institute's Timothy Sandefur sat down with Dr. Mark Skouseneconomist, investment expert, historian, and eighth-generation Franklin descendentto discuss The Greatest American, Skousen's new book on the most prolific Founding Father. As Sandefur notes, Franklin was "America's first self-made man," a testament to his unmatched drive, creativity, and ambition.
The conversation will be enjoyed by history enthusiasts, students of liberty, and anyone who just wants a better understanding of the mind of a true American visionary.
You can grab a copy of The Greatest American here and watch the webinar here or below.
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Original text here: https://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/week-in-review-exposing-academic-rot/
Jamestown Foundation Issues Commentary to Terrorism Monitor: Nigerian Jihadists and Bandits Exploit Emerging Fintech
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025, in its Terrorism Monitor:* * *
Nigerian Jihadists and Bandits Exploit Emerging Fintech
By Aminah Mustapha
Executive Summary:
* Nigeria's rapid shift toward mobile money, Point of Sale (PoS) terminals, and fintech wallets has created new financial pathways for insurgents and bandit groups, according to a March 2025 assessment. Weak "Know Your Customer" (KYC) regulations and lightly supervised agent networks allow criminals to move ransom payments and insurgent taxes with reduced detection risk.
* ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025, in its Terrorism Monitor: * * * Nigerian Jihadists and Bandits Exploit Emerging Fintech By Aminah Mustapha Executive Summary: * Nigeria's rapid shift toward mobile money, Point of Sale (PoS) terminals, and fintech wallets has created new financial pathways for insurgents and bandit groups, according to a March 2025 assessment. Weak "Know Your Customer" (KYC) regulations and lightly supervised agent networks allow criminals to move ransom payments and insurgent taxes with reduced detection risk. *Islamic State-West Africa Province (ISWAP) is integrating digital platforms into its revenue collection and logistics, using agent banking, civilian intermediaries, and fragmented transfers to shift funds without transporting bulk cash. Digital rails now enable cross-regional liquidity movement that complicates intelligence tracking.
* Northwestern bandit groups increasingly rely on PoS agents and low-tier fintech wallets to process ransom payments through coercion, intermediaries, and rapid cash-outs. Despite new CBN regulations, enforcement gaps in rural high-risk areas leave Nigeria's digital-finance ecosystem vulnerable to armed actors.
The Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) reported in March 2025 that kidnapping ransom payments increasingly move through mobile-money platforms, Point of Sale (PoS) terminals, and fintech wallets. The report cited cases of rapid fund splitting and repeated small cash-outs, and identified weak Know Your Customer (KYC) compliance meant to prevent fraud, with some accounts opened with minimal verification in areas lacking state oversight. PoS transactions are especially relevant. A PoS terminal is a small device found in shops and kiosks that allows cash withdrawals and transfers without a bank branch, while a PoS agent is an independent vendor who acts as a micro-banking outlet, providing cash-in/cash-out services and transfers on behalf of banks and mobile-money operators. This novel digital economy has become a favored channel for illicit transactions, including by militant organizations.
The NFIU's findings indicate that Nigeria's accelerating shift toward a cashless economy has inadvertently created new financial pathways for insurgent and bandit groups. These developments hold implications for counterterrorism, anti-money laundering, and rural security governance.
Digital Rails in a Fragmented Security Environment
Nigeria's cashless transition expanded significantly after the 2022-2023 currency redesign and the push for electronic payments. Cash scarcity temporarily pushed millions of Nigerians toward instant transfers, Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) payments (where a mobile-phone protocol allows users to perform instant money transfers and banking actions through short numeric codes without internet access), and PoS transactions. The PoS agent banking sector now numbers several million terminals nationwide, concentrated in rural and conflict-affected areas where formal banking infrastructure is limited (Daily Trust, March 11, 2024).
The NFIU report nonetheless suggests that digitization without parallel regulatory expansion has widened opportunities for criminal finance innovation (NFIU, March 2025). Meanwhile, The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has repeatedly positioned the cashless framework as a modernization effort intended to promote financial inclusion and reduce illicit cash circulation. The speed of fintech growth, combined with uneven supervision across thousands of PoS agents, has produced what some Nigerian analysts describe as a "semi-formal" financial space: widely used, lightly monitored, and attractive to armed actors.
ISWAP's Adaptation to Mobile-Money Ecosystems
Islamic State-West Africa Province (ISWAP) facilitators have increasingly incorporated digital channels into existing financial practices (GNET, February 18). ISWAP has historically relied on a diversified revenue base. Sources of its income include taxation of farmers, traders, and transporters, smuggling, and ransom payments. The expansion of mobile-money services and agent networks deeper into rural Borno and Yobe provinces has only further enabled ISWAP to make use of these technologies for nefarious purposes.
ISWAP's adaptation appears to follow three patterns:
1. Digitization of revenue extracted in controlled areas
ISWAP enforces taxes on agricultural and commercial activities in parts of the Lake Chad Basin. Traders and transporters operating near ISWAP-influenced corridors increasingly use agent banking, creating opportunities for facilitators to collect or move funds without physically handling cash (Tribune Online, August 2).
2. Use of civilian intermediaries
Local traders, PoS operators, and transport workers have historically served as intermediaries between civilians and insurgent cells. The integration of fintech wallets and mobile money provides these intermediaries with a lower-risk way to transmit funds, particularly for fragmented transfers that attract less scrutiny (NFIU, March 2025).
3. Cross-regional liquidity movement
ISWAP has incentives to move funds from taxation zones toward logistics hubs and procurement networks. Digital rails (the digital systems and infrastructure that allow money to move electronically across regions) reduce the operational risks associated with transporting large quantities of cash across military checkpoints. Although open-source evidence cannot quantify ISWAP's digital finance footprint, Nigeria's intelligence assessments increasingly treat mobile-money exploitation as an insurgent tactic (NFIU, March 2025).
Northwestern Bandits and the Rise of Digital Ransom Economies
Criminal groups in Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, and Niger States have long relied on cash for ransom payments. Yet the NFIU report documents a growing shift toward digital facilitation. In one case, bandits compelled a victim's family to deposit ransom funds into an account controlled by an associate, who then withdrew the funds through multiple PoS terminals across state lines to avoid detection (NFIU, March 2025).
Several Nigerian media outlets have highlighted similar patterns of growing use of fintech by bandit groups. The Association of Mobile Money and Bank Agents of Nigeria (AMMBAN) acknowledged that PoS operators are often used as cash-out points for ransom proceeds, particularly in rural communities lacking bank branches (The Whistler, May 24, 2024). Some operators report receiving "red flag" transactions but have limited mechanisms for escalation or protection when confronting suspicious activity.
Bandit networks exploit three systemic weaknesses:
1. Coercible and accessible PoS infrastructure
PoS agents are ever-present in rural markets and transit points. Bandits have reportedly forced victims to withdraw funds directly from PoS terminals under duress or have directed intermediaries to conduct cash-outs on their behalf (The Whistler, May 24, 2024).
2. Fragmented oversight
High-volume agents in rural and semi-rural zones in Nigeria often operate far from regulatory scrutiny (The Whistler, May 24, 2024). Commercial banks and mobile-money operators oversee agent banking, although enforcement varies widely.
3. Low-tier fintech wallets.
Many digital wallets allow onboarding with minimal identification. These low-tier accounts, while critical for financial inclusion of people who may not have personal documents, enable bandit cells to open accounts linked only to a phone number to receive and distribute funds--leaving only a modest risk of detection.
These practices allow bandit groups to maintain operational liquidity and minimize exposure during ransom negotiations.
The CBN's Regulatory Tightening and Its Limitations
The CBN introduced regulations in 2025 requiring agents to link terminals to verifiable owners and to comply with enhanced monitoring standards. The Central Bank also introduced new cash-out limits, agent exclusivity rules, and KYC-strengthening measures for agent networks (CBN, October 6). However, implementation challenges persist. Agent networks in high-insecurity zones often struggle with identity verification because of weak civil registration systems. Fintech systems face high onboarding demands relative to their scale, and rural areas continue to rely on high-volume PoS cash-outs due to limited ATM infrastructure. As a result, the core vulnerabilities highlighted in the NFIU report remain only partially addressed.
Convergence of Insurgent and Criminal Economies
Both ISWAP and northwestern bandit groups increasingly exploit similar financial pathways. Several trends indicate growing convergence:
* Reduced reliance on bulk cash, as digital channels offer lower-risk alternatives.
* Increased use of intermediaries, including PoS operators, traders, and transport workers.
* Diversification of financial flows, with ransom funds fragmented into micro-transactions.
* Instant transfers and mobile wallets facilitate the mobility of funds across regions.
These patterns complicate the efforts of Nigerian security agencies to map financial networks. The volume of legitimate digital transactions, numbering in the hundreds of millions monthly, creates "transactional noise" in which illicit flows can hide. Without advanced analytics, law enforcement struggles to distinguish criminal activity from ordinary rural economic behavior.
Conclusion
Nigeria's cashless transition has brought financial inclusion and faster payment infrastructure along with new financial pathways for insurgent and bandit groups. ISWAP is integrating digital rails into its taxation and logistical systems, while northwestern bandits increasingly rely on PoS operators and mobile wallets to receive and distribute ransom proceeds.
Absent stronger KYC standards, targeted supervision in high-risk zones, and enhanced transaction monitoring, Nigeria's digital-finance architecture will remain vulnerable to exploitation. The country's security agencies and financial regulators face the challenge of safeguarding an expanding payments ecosystem while preventing its capture by armed networks.
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Aminah Mustapha is a researcher and policy analyst specializing in security governance, emerging technologies, and conflict dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Original text here: https://jamestown.org/nigerian-jihadists-and-bandits-exploit-emerging-fintech/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Ifo Institute: Business Climate in Germany Stagnated in 2025
MUNICH, Germany, Dec. 5 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on Dec. 4, 2025:* * *
Business Climate in Germany Stagnated in 2025
The business climate in Germany saw hardly any movement over the course of 2025 and remains significantly below the figures in previous years. From January to November, the index only rose by around 2.8 points overall, which is practically tantamount to a standstill. The business situation scarcely changed (minus 0.4 points), while expectations rose slightly over the course of the year (plus 5.9 points). "Companies are taking a sober and concerned view ... Show Full Article MUNICH, Germany, Dec. 5 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on Dec. 4, 2025: * * * Business Climate in Germany Stagnated in 2025 The business climate in Germany saw hardly any movement over the course of 2025 and remains significantly below the figures in previous years. From January to November, the index only rose by around 2.8 points overall, which is practically tantamount to a standstill. The business situation scarcely changed (minus 0.4 points), while expectations rose slightly over the course of the year (plus 5.9 points). "Companies are taking a sober and concerned viewof economic development," says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of ifo Surveys. "We are seeing a stabilization of the business climate driven only by expectations, and the euphoria from the start of the year has already faded again."
The business climate in industry has improved noticeably since the start of the year. Nevertheless, almost all sectors remain in negative territory and are still predominantly pessimistic about the future. Although the business climate among manufacturers of electrical equipment improved significantly over the year by 29.4 points, sentiment still remained subdued, with the indicator reaching minus 2.1 points in November. Sentiment in the chemical industry deteriorated particularly in October and November. Overall, the indicator fell by 8.6 points. Among manufacturers of food and animal feed, the barometer fell by 12.7 points.
Sentiment in trade recovered somewhat but remained at a very low level at the end of the year and was worse overall than in previous years. Construction showed an upward trend over the course of the year, although the sector was emerging from a very low point and had still not made it out of negative territory by November. There was hardly any movement among the service providers surveyed, even though sentiment in warehousing and storage improved significantly by 13.1 points. The hospitality industry is also in a better mood at the end of the year, up 6.8 points compared to January. By contrast, the business climate in publishing fell by 14.9 points. "Overall, it is evident across all sectors of the economy that it would be wrong to speak of a recovery," says Wohlrabe.
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Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2025-12-04/business-climate-germany-stagnated-2025
[Category: ThinkTank]
Consumers Feeling Less Than Jolly, Pulling Back on Holiday Shopping as Prices Rise and Confidence Plummets
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- Groundwork Collaborative, a think tank and progressive advocacy group, posted the following news release:* * *
Consumers Feeling Less Than Jolly, Pulling Back on Holiday Shopping as Prices Rise and Confidence Plummets
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This year, Black Friday put many shoppers in the red. The latest data from the biggest shopping day of the year shows that while Americans' spent more in 2025, they went home with less as prices continue to climb due to President Trump's tumultuous economic agenda. Paying more for a smaller gift haul isn't exactly filling consumers ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- Groundwork Collaborative, a think tank and progressive advocacy group, posted the following news release: * * * Consumers Feeling Less Than Jolly, Pulling Back on Holiday Shopping as Prices Rise and Confidence Plummets * This year, Black Friday put many shoppers in the red. The latest data from the biggest shopping day of the year shows that while Americans' spent more in 2025, they went home with less as prices continue to climb due to President Trump's tumultuous economic agenda. Paying more for a smaller gift haul isn't exactly filling consumerswith the holiday spirit: today's University of Michigan Survey of Consumers reveals that consumer sentiment is 28% lower than one year ago, while perceptions of current economic conditions are nearly 33% lower, both approaching historic lows.
These latest numbers come on the heels of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which shows consumers' optimism deteriorated by 6.8 points in November, the steepest drop since April, as families confront higher prices at the grocery store and in the gift aisle. Meanwhile, delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures data for September released today shows that consumer spending stalled while inflation remained sticky, with the PCE Price Index ticking up slightly to 2.8%.
As Trump's reckless tariffs make everyday essentials tough to afford, the added expenses of the holidays means Americans are trimming back their gift lists instead of trimming their trees. Fresh data from Clever Real Estate finds that 72% of Americans expect Trump's tariffs to make 2025 the most expensive holiday season yet, and over half (56%) are cutting back on gifts just to pay the bills. As a result, two-thirds of Americans (68%) say the holidays now feel more financially stressful than joyful.
The labor market is flashing warning signs as well. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports 1.17 million announced job cuts so far this year 54% higher than last year and the highest since the 2020 pandemic with tariffs driving more than 2,000 cuts in November. Small businesses are being hit especially hard: more than 2,200 entrepreneurs and small firms have filed for bankruptcy this year, up 8% from last year, as they are particularly vulnerable to Trump's trade war. The latest ADP report finds small firms shed 120,000 jobs in November alone, continuing a months-long streak of losses.
Groundwork Collaborative's Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez reacted with the following statement:
"As the holidays approach, Trump's economy is in freefall and the warning signs in the data are flashing redder than Rudolph's nose. Across the board, Americans are pulling back on spending, consumer outlook is bleak, and companies are shedding employees as working families and businesses alike brace for more hardship. Most Americans feel more stress than joy about the holidays, and that's thanks to the Grinch in the White House."
This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump's actions are deeply unpopular, hurting the economy, and harming America's workers.
Economic Indicators on Trump's Handling of the Economy:
* Shoppers are growing increasingly frustrated by rising prices. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, the lowest level since April, while consumers' assessments of their own financial situation collapsed to lows not seen in over a year.
* The report also found that consumers are scaling back on big purchases and vacations this holiday season, as Trump's economy is making it more expensive to fill stockings and deck the halls.
* Additionally, today the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading showed a marginal improvement within the margin of error. This remains one of the lowest readings in the survey's history, as consumers know they can't expect relief anytime soon.
* Inflation remains stubbornly high. September's delayed PCE Price Index release showed that prices continue to rise with no relief in sight. The core PCE Price Index has increased 2.8% over the past year, persistently above the Fed's 2% target.
* September's delayed Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that wholesale goods prices climbed 0.9, the largest increase in nearly two years. As the cost pressures on producers persist, consumers can expect more price hikes ahead.
* Rising prices meant Americans came home with fewer items this Black Friday. While U.S. retail sales on Black Friday increased 4.1% compared to last year, according to data released by Mastercard, closer look reveals this is far from good news: sales data reveals a 7% jump in the average selling price and 1% decline in order volume, as well as a 2% drop in units per transaction. In other words, Americans bought less but paid more, boosting companies' sales, without bringing more items home.
* Additionally, wealthy consumers have been driving most of the spending, while low- and middle-income consumers pull back.
* As pre-tariff inventory runs down, Americans are hitting the brakes on spending. U.S. retail trade sales cooled in September's delayed report, showing an increase of only 0.1% from the previous month, versus an increase of 0.5% in August.
* September's delayed Personal Income and Outlays report showed a similar picture, with consumer spending adjusted for changes in prices almost flat. Year-over-year growth in spending has fallen from 3.3% 2.1% since Trump took office. For durable goods, like cars and furniture, it's fallen from 5.6% to 2.1%. In September, consumers also cut back on spending for clothing, footwear and recreational goods and services.
* Layoffs are soaring to historic highs. A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that announced layoff plans this year have reached 1.17 million, 54% higher than last year and the highest since the 2020 pandemic, as tariffs, economic uncertainty and AI advancements are leading to job losses across the country.
* The ADP Employment Report showed the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November, the biggest drop since 2023. ADP has shown declines in four of the last six months, a concerning trend.
* No relief in sight for Main Street as small businesses continue to struggle under Trump's economy. More than 2,200 entrepreneurs and small firms have filed for bankruptcy so far this year, up 8% from last year, as they are particularly vulnerable to Trump's trade war. In contrast, traditional Chapter 11 filings, used by larger businesses and wealthy individuals, rose about 1% to just over 6,000.
* The latest ADP report shows that small firms shed 120,000 jobs, continuing a 4-month string of job losses. Considering that nearly half of private-sector workers are employed by small businesses, this trend raises serious alarm.
* Trump promised a manufacturing comeback, but instead brought a downfall. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% in November, down 0.5 points from October, while 67% of panelists reported that managing headcounts remains the norm rather than hiring, as the sector struggles to stay afloat in the ongoing trade war.
* Manufacturers shed 18,000 jobs in November, according to the latest ADP report.
* Factory orders increased by only 0.2% in September, after a downwardly revised 1.3% increase in August, according to data released delayed this week due to the government shutdown.
* The rise in warehouse stocks was the steepest in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI survey's 18-year history, as manufacturers are making more goods but unable to find buyers, signaling lower production ahead.
Polling:
* Holidays feel more fearful than cheerful. Two-thirds of Americans (68%) say the holidays now feel more financially stressful than joyful, according to new data from Clever Real Estate.
* 72% of Americans expect Trump's tariffs to make 2025 the most expensive holiday season yet, and over half (56%) are cutting back on gifts just to cover basic expenses, while 38% say this is the first year they've worried about affording holiday shopping.
* Consumers plan to spend $550 this year, down from $600, citing inflation (55%) and tariffs (38%) as reasons for cutting back.
* Americans aren't buying what Trump's selling. 60% of Americans say Trump makes prices and inflation sound better than they really are a view shared by even four in ten Republicans, a new CBS news poll found.
* The economy and inflation is the most important issue for voters when judging the Trump administration, and among those who prioritize these issues, 77% say Trump is not spending enough time addressing them.
* Americans say the cost of living has never felt worse. New polling from POLITICO shows that nearly half of Americans (46%) say the cost of living is the worst they can ever remember including 37% of Trump's own 2024 voters.
* Additionally, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index (ECI) fell seven points to -30 in November, the lowest since July 2024, as both Americans' ratings of current economic conditions and their perceptions of economic improvement have worsened.
* Voters say Trump is to blame for rising prices. Groceries are the number one affordability concern for Americans, and more than half of voters (55%) blame the current administration for the current situation, including 20% of Trump voters, according to polling from POLITICO and Public First. Additionally, 46% of Americans say it's Trump's economy now and that his administration is responsible for rising prices.
* Americans are deeply divided on almost everything but not inflation. In all communities surveyed, inflation or rising prices was listed as the number one issue facing the nation, a new American Communities Project report found. Additionally, in 13 of the 15 communities surveyed across the country, 70% or more of respondents said that inflation or rising prices have worsened in the last 12 months.
* Trump's approval continues to sink to new lows. Trump's job approval has fallen five points to 36%, a new low for his second term, and disapproval has climbed to 60%, according to new data from Gallup.
* Both Republicans' and independents' ratings of Trump have worsened significantly since last month. Republicans' approval has fallen seven points to 84%, while independents' has fallen eight points to 25%.
Expert commentary
* Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said "the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface [...] Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs."
* "At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components, ISM Manufacturing PMI survey respondent)
* "Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don't have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of 'planning' has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington." (Wood Products, ISM Manufacturing PMI survey respondent)
* Rick Newman, who writes The Pinpoint Press, a newsletter on the US economy, said to CNN "The story of the economy right now is it's a bifurcated economy. If you're lucky enough to own stocks and own a home, you're part of the upper slant of that cave, that K-shaped economy... you're going to be comfortable spending a fair amount of money this year." In contrast, Newman mentioned that low and middle income people "are going to be pinching pennies this holiday season."
* Dana M Peterson, the Chief Economist at the Conference Board on November's Consumer Confidence report "All five components of the overall [Consumer Confidence] index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions.... Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings."
* Dr. Nela Richarson, Chief Economist at ADP commented on the latest ADP Employment report: "Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses."
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Original text here: https://groundworkcollaborative.org/news/consumers-feeling-less-than-jolly-pulling-back-on-holiday-shopping-as-prices-rise-and-confidence-plummets/
Capital Research Center: Autism Speaks - The Debate Over Who Really Speaks for Autism
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The Capital Research Center issued the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025:* * *
Autism Speaks: the debate over who really speaks for autism
The NGO has a lot of ties to Big Pharma & doesn't want the CDC looking into a long alleged (though never established) connection between vaccines and autism. Wherever the truth may be, there's a healthy debate regarding who Autism Speaks really speaks for.
By Kali Fontanilla
Families with loved ones afflicted with autism are exhausted and desperate for answers. They are owed more honesty about their challenge than they have been ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The Capital Research Center issued the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025: * * * Autism Speaks: the debate over who really speaks for autism The NGO has a lot of ties to Big Pharma & doesn't want the CDC looking into a long alleged (though never established) connection between vaccines and autism. Wherever the truth may be, there's a healthy debate regarding who Autism Speaks really speaks for. By Kali Fontanilla Families with loved ones afflicted with autism are exhausted and desperate for answers. They are owed more honesty about their challenge than they have beenreceiving. While I haven't walked in their shoes over the long haul, I have visited.
I recall the first day I walked into an autism center as a regular substitute teacher. I had been in challenging classrooms before, including substitute teaching in the local juvenile hall and pretty much every alternative education program in Santa Cruz County. But nothing compared to the autism center's environment.
There was noise, emotional intensity and unpredictability. I worked one-on-one with a boy who needed the same routine every single morning. If the staff did not grab McDonald's for him before school, he would flip out. Full meltdown. Screaming, hitting, running. Sometimes the staff had to zip him inside a blue sheet to keep him from hurting himself.
It was one of the most challenging jobs I ever had, and it gave me a deep respect for parents who live with that reality every day.
Autism rates keep rising. The CDC reported autism at 1 in 150 children in 2000. By 2020, it was 1 in 36. More recent sampling puts it closer to 1 in 31. If you had told people back in 2000, when the official rate was 1 in 150, that in 25 years it would rise to 1 in 31, then wouldn't that be reason for alarm?
We are told there is no reason for alarm. The accepted talking point to justify this swiftly increasing autism rate is better diagnosis and awareness. Surely this is somewhat true, but is that the only factor?
What I know is that families (and teachers) see this real surge with their own eyes, and they want real transparency, not predetermined talking points.
Who really speaks for autism?
Autism Speaks is arguably the most well-known and richest autism nonprofit in the country.
According to the most recently available IRS filing, the group brought in $35 million in total revenue for the fiscal year ending March 2024, including $33.6 million in contributions and grants. The filing also shows several unnamed donors giving between $700,000 and $2.6 million.
Independent charitable foundations that have reported giving such big bucks since 2023 include the Chern Family Foundation ($747,985), the Gordon Gund and Llura Liggett Gund 1993 Charitable Foundation ($430,000), and the William Randolph Hearst Foundation ($250,000). Nearly $2 million came in from massive donor advised funds such as the Vanguard Charitable Endowment Program, which do not disclose the ultimate source of their contributions, as is their legal right.
Similarly, Autism Speaks does not disclose donor names.
The Autism Speaks CEO was paid $676,823 in combined salary and benefits for the year ending March 2024. At least nine executives had combined salaries and benefits exceeding $200,000. Autism Speaks reports spending $600,000 on lobbying during the year.
The board is filled with corporate leaders from finance, consumer products, hospitality, and real estate. The bios indicated some of them have autistic family connections, but until 2015 not a single autistic person served on the Autism Speaks board.
To some, this gave the perception that Autism Speaks preferred to speak about autistic individuals rather than include them. In 2015 the group added its first two autistic board members, but even today, out of roughly thirty total directors, only two are autistic.
Even this change was harshly criticized by the Autistic Self Advocacy Network (ASAN), a nonprofit charity that proclaims it is "run by and for Autistic people." ASAN issued a news release that criticized Autism Speaks for a "persistent and fundamentally flawed lack of regard for the voices of the autistic community" and an "imbalanced budget which allocates the majority of their finances towards biomedical research and fundraising."
ASAN concluded with an assertion that placing a pair of autistic people on the huge board wasn't going to repair the alleged problems:
Unless and until Autism Speaks makes significant changes to their practices and policies of fighting against the existence of autistic people, these appointments to the board are superficial changes. Barring such changes, Autism Speaks will continue to fail to be an organization that can create real, positive change for the Autistic community.
As recently as April 2025, ASAN was still alleging that none of these problems at Autism Speaks had been rectified.
Autism Speaks claims to be a neutral authority on what causes autism and what does not. But as the criticisms imply, there is a more complicated story. For example, do their connections to large pharmaceutical corporations influence their views and the policies they push?
Through at least the end of 2015, Autism Speaks was listing "prevention" of autism and a "potential cure" as part of its mission statement.
But in 2016, responding to pressure from those (such as ASAN) who argued that autism is a lifelong condition to be understood and supported rather than "cured," Autism Speaks quietly removed its original goal to "find a cure." An Autism Speaks board member explained that "the organization grew to believe that autism is something to be worked with for promoting fulfilling and productive lives of people on the spectrum - rather than something that has to be done to."
The vaccine debate
Clearly, the shifting of such a major goal by Autism Speaks demonstrates that the "science" of autism is still very much unsettled.
This year, and with much controversy, the CDC updated its autism and vaccines page. The CDC did not claim that vaccines cause autism. It also did not claim that they could never play a role in any scenario. Instead, the CDC acknowledged that the full scope of available evidence today did not support the older statement of absolute certainty that vaccines had somehow been conclusively proven not to cause autism (something that simply isn't studied enough to be asserted), and that continued research into environmental and medical exposures is legitimate.
The CDC opened the door to more study in this unsettled field, not less. That is what science is supposed to do.
But Autism Speaks responded by criticizing the CDC for softening its former dogmatic stance. In its official statement, the NGO urged the CDC "to restore fact-based language, reaffirm that vaccines do not cause autism." Despite its enduring hostility towards Autism Speaks, the Autistic Self Advocacy Network is on the same page regarding vaccines, and issued a similar criticism.
But this is where a potential conflict of interest regarding Autism Speaks raises a red flag.
The Autism Speaks website highlights major partners such as Genentech, one of the largest biotech and pharmaceutical companies in the world, while Tris Pharma identifies Autism Speaks as a long-term partner and has run fundraising campaigns with matching donations for the nonprofit.
Autism Speaks has also participated in major drug development collaborations. One of the biggest was EU AIMS, a research partnership that brought together Autism Speaks and pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Pfizer, Servier, and Vifor Pharma. The goal of the project was to develop biomarkers, conduct clinical trials, and identify potential new drugs related to autism.
On this point, ASAN and Autism Speaks are again working at cross purposes. The NGO run by autistic people believes that "autism doesn't need to be cured" and that instead of "wasting time and money on something that isn't possible and that autistic people don't want, we should focus on supporting autistic people to live good lives."
Whether or not this turns out to be a scientifically supportable position, it does absolve ASAN of any conflict of interest with Big Pharma. That benefit of doubt is harder to support for Autism Speaks when it speaks out against research into vaccines, a position obviously in the interest of pharmaceutical companies whose products are under consideration for potentially contributing to autism.
Whether a vaccine link is established in the future is yet to be seen. But regardless, to shut down research into one possible factor is unscientific, yet surely benefits the drug-makers who are so closely tied to Autism Speaks. It is fair to ask if Autism Speaks is simply acting as a mouthpiece for corporate interests in this regard, rather than a nonprofit for the public good.
The ongoing dispute with ASAN certainly shows that even within the autistic community, there is a robust debate regarding the value that Autism Speaks is bringing to the table. And the pharmaceutical ties and resistance to researching a vaccine link creates an impression that Autism Speaks may be behaving more as "Big Pharma Speaks."
When autism affects roughly one in thirty children, no credible line of inquiry should be shut down. Families want the truth. They want transparency. They want every reasonable environmental factor explored thoroughly. Parents who are struggling with the realities I saw inside that autism center deserve honesty and open science.
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Kali Fontanilla
Kali is serving as CRC's Senior fellow, particularly focusing on topics related to K-12 public education.
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Original text here: https://capitalresearch.org/article/autism-speaks-the-debate-over-who-really-speaks-for-autism/
[Category: ThinkTank]
American Action Forum Issues Commentary: Lawmakers Introduce Legislation to Fund FAA Activities During Future Shutdowns
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The American Action Forum issued the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025:* * *
Lawmakers Introduce Legislation to Fund FAA Activities During Future Shutdowns
By Jordan Haring
Executive Summary
* A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House and Senate have introduced legislation to ensure funding for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) activities is available during future government shutdowns; one of the largest costs of the recent 43-day shutdown was the disruption to FAA activities.
* Air traffic controllers were among the essential federal employees required to ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The American Action Forum issued the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025: * * * Lawmakers Introduce Legislation to Fund FAA Activities During Future Shutdowns By Jordan Haring Executive Summary * A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House and Senate have introduced legislation to ensure funding for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) activities is available during future government shutdowns; one of the largest costs of the recent 43-day shutdown was the disruption to FAA activities. * Air traffic controllers were among the essential federal employees required towork during the shutdown without pay; however, many did not show up to work for a litany of reasons, causing flight delays and cancellations at airports across the country.
* The House and Senate bills are a step in the right direction to prevent one of the largest disruptions and costs of past shutdowns from occurring in the future.
Introduction
A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House and Senate have introduced legislation to ensure funding for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) activities is available during future federal government shutdowns. The 43-day shutdown that began on October 1 and ended on November 12 imposed costs on both the federal budget and the U.S. economy. One of the largest costs was the disruption of FAA activities and the subsequent impact on air travel. Air traffic controllers were among the roughly 730,000 essential federal employees required to work during the shutdown without pay. Many air traffic controllers chose not to report to work, causing long delays and cancellations at major airports across the country. The FAA issued an emergency order in early November requiring airlines to scale down daily flights at 40 major airports across the country by as much as 10 percent (these restrictions were lifted on November 16).
The House's Aviation Funding Solvency Act (H.R. 6086) and the Senate's Aviation Funding Stability Act of 2025 (S. 1045) are a step in the right direction to prevent the recurrence of one of the largest and costliest disruptions of past government shutdowns. This insight reviews both bills.
The House Bill
The Aviation Funding Solvency Act was introduced in the House by Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Sam Graves (R-MO), along with Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Ranking Member Rick Larsen (D-WA), House Aviation Subcommittee Chairman Troy Nehls (R-TX), and Representative Andre Carson (D-IN).
The bill would use funding from the Aviation Insurance Revolving Fund to fund FAA activities during any future government shutdown. The fund typically covers war risk insurance claims by airlines and currently has a balance of about $2.6 billion. During a shutdown, the funds would be available to fund the activities of two FAA accounts: Operations, and Facilities and Equipment. The funds would be available from the start of any lapse in appropriations legislation until new appropriations legislation or a continuing resolution (CR) is signed into law.
The bill would effectively establish a cap on the amount of funding that could be withdrawn from the Aviation Insurance Revolving Fund by requiring the fund to maintain a $1 billion balance. So, for example, if its balance is still $2.6 billion when the next government shutdown starts, a maximum of $1.6 billion could be withdrawn to cover FAA activities. If the FAA administrator determines the amount is insufficient to fund all activities during a shutdown, the bill mandates that paying air traffic controllers be the priority.
When a shutdown ends either through the enactment of appropriations legislation or a CR, H.R. 6086 would require the total sum withdrawn from the Aviation Insurance Revolving Fund to cover FAA activities to be charged to the appropriation fund or authorization that finances the activities when the government is not shut down. This would ensure repayment of the "borrowed" funds to the Aviation Insurance Revolving Fund.
The Senate Bill
The Aviation Funding Stability Act of 2025 was introduced in the Senate by Aviation, Space, and Innovation Subcommittee Chairman Jerry Moran (R-KS).
The bill would use funding from the Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF) to fund FAA activities during a government shutdown. The AATF is the primary funding source for federal aviation programs, and its primary source of income is taxes paid by users of the national aviation system. The AATF currently has a balance of about $20 billion. During a shutdown, the funds would be available to finance the activities of four FAA accounts: Operations; Facilities and Equipment; Research, Engineering, and Development; and Grants-in-Aid for Airports. The funds would be available from the start of any lapse in appropriations until new appropriations legislation or a CR is signed into law.
When a shutdown ends, either through the enactment of appropriations legislation or a CR, the bill would require the total sum withdrawn from the Aviation Insurance Revolving Fund to cover FAA activities to be charged to the appropriation fund or authorization that funds the activities when the government is not shut down. This would ensure repayment of the "borrowed" funds to the AATF.
Budgetary Impact
The Congressional Budget Office has not provided an official cost estimate of H.R. 6086 or S. 1045. It is not unreasonable to assume the bills would score differently given their different funding mechanisms, parameters for using those funding mechanisms, and the individual FAA accounts that would be funded by the bills during a shutdown.
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Jordan Haring is the Director of Fiscal Policy at the American Action Forum
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Original text here: https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/lawmakers-introduce-legislation-to-fund-faa-activities-during-future-shutdowns/
[Category: Think Tank]