Think Tanks
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Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: 'Seizure of Russian Assets Is Not in the Interest of Peace'
NEW YORK, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft issued the following policy note (No. 19) on Dec. 11, 2025 by Mark Episkopos entitled "The Seizure of Russian Assets Is Not in the Interest of Peace."
Here is the overview:
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European leaders are doubling down on a plan to utilize 165 billion euros worth of frozen Russian assets in a bid to keep Ukraine's war effort afloat into the next year.
Roughly 190 billion euros in Russian sovereign assets have been frozen in Europe since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The majority of this amount consists of Russian
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NEW YORK, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft issued the following policy note (No. 19) on Dec. 11, 2025 by Mark Episkopos entitled "The Seizure of Russian Assets Is Not in the Interest of Peace."
Here is the overview:
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European leaders are doubling down on a plan to utilize 165 billion euros worth of frozen Russian assets in a bid to keep Ukraine's war effort afloat into the next year.
Roughly 190 billion euros in Russian sovereign assets have been frozen in Europe since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The majority of this amount consists of Russiancentral bank reserves, primarily held by the Euroclear securities depository in Belgium. An additional 25 billion euros of Russian funds are being held in private bank accounts across Europe.
Previous attempts to seize these assets have sputtered in the face of concerns over legality, Russian retaliation, and the long-term consequences for Europe's financial system. However, Kyiv's mounting military and economic difficulties have raised Europe's risk tolerance to such a degree that the confiscation proposal has gone from a nonstarter to being seen by some European leaders as the only game in town.
The plan would provide Ukraine with a zero-interest 165 billion euro loan backed by Russia's frozen assets, subject to repayment only if the war ends and Russia agrees to pay reparations to Ukraine. The plan's supporters say that this repayment stipulation, along with a set of ancillary measures intended to reassure Belgium, are enough to resolve previous drafts of the plan's shortcomings. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and the proposal's other critics remain unconvinced, arguing that the underlying risks have not been adequately addressed. Still, European leaders are racing to secure approval for the reparations loan by the European Union's Dec. 18-19 summit and are preparing legal work-arounds to override the individual member state vetoes if necessary.
If Europe proceeds with seizing Russia's state assets, despite the likely illegality of such a move, it would expose both itself and Ukraine to a set of near- and long-term consequences. These include:
* Legal obstacles. Seizing Russia's sovereign assets would sharply undermine the credibility of E.U. financial systems in the eyes of international investors and at a time when the bloc already faces acute macroeconomic headwinds. The move would exercise a chilling effect on non-Western investors, set the stage for further capital flight, and erode the euro's status as one of the world's foremost reserve currencies. The blowback from such an action would risk hobbling European financial competitiveness for years to come.
* Implications for the Ukraine peace process. The reparations loan scheme risks torpedoing delicate negotiations around a Trump administration proposal to secure Russia's voluntary agreement for transferring its sovereign assets into a Ukraine reconstruction fund. Preemptively seizing Russia's assets will not change the trajectory of the war in favor of Ukraine, but it would undermine the West's bargaining position in ongoing peace talks with Moscow and disincentivize Russia from pursuing a negotiated settlement.
* Russian retaliatory measures. Though precise estimates vary, it is widely acknowledged that European firms and other entities hold well over 100 billion euros worth of assets and equity in Russia. Nearly all of these funds would be irretrievably lost if Russia retaliates against European expropriation in a commensurate manner. Additionally, Moscow has been clear that it will treat seizure of its assets as an overtly hostile act to "be met with a tough response." Such a response may extend to the domain of infrastructure sabotage in Europe and other hybrid actions.
* Disproportionate risks. The 140 billion euros worth of frozen Russian state assets in Euroclear's custody represents one-fifth of Belgium's annual gross domestic product. Belgium's custody over the vast majority of Russia's European assets all but ensures, in the absence of vast and exceedingly robust assurances that other European states have so far been unwilling to provide, that any repercussions from the seizure will be disproportionately shouldered by Brussels.
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View full version at: https://quincyinst.org/research/the-seizure-of-russian-assets-is-not-in-the-interest-of-peace/#
[Category: ThinkTank]
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: 'How to Keep Resolution 2803 From Becoming a U.S.-Run Occupation'
NEW YORK, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft issued the following brief (No. 89) on Dec. 10, 2025 by Carol Daniel-Kasbari entitled "How to Keep Resolution 2803 From Becoming a U.S.-Run Occupation."
Here is the executive summary:
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President Trump's peace plan for Gaza -- adopted by the U.N. Security Council as Resolution 2803 -- risks becoming yet another U.S.-run occupation. Coming on the heels of U.N. findings that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, the plan would place Washington at the center of a post-genocide mission. This brief lays out how the
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NEW YORK, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft issued the following brief (No. 89) on Dec. 10, 2025 by Carol Daniel-Kasbari entitled "How to Keep Resolution 2803 From Becoming a U.S.-Run Occupation."
Here is the executive summary:
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President Trump's peace plan for Gaza -- adopted by the U.N. Security Council as Resolution 2803 -- risks becoming yet another U.S.-run occupation. Coming on the heels of U.N. findings that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, the plan would place Washington at the center of a post-genocide mission. This brief lays out how theU.S. can avoid a quagmire by aligning implementation with genocide-prevention obligations, Palestinian self-determination, and a credible exit strategy.
Resolution 2803 creates a U.S.-led Board of Peace as a transitional administration for Gaza, with a new international Stabilization Force, the ISF, under its umbrella, leaving Palestinian self-rule to a vague later "pathway." This "interim" regime risks becoming "Oslo with helmets": heavy on external control and light on rights. Without Palestinian co-ownership and a political horizon, such an arrangement is unlikely to succeed. It is more likely to fuel support for armed groups and to drag the U.S. into an indefinite security commitment it says it does not want.
To avoid that outcome -- and the resulting political blowback -- this brief recommends that the U.S. use the tools it controls to reshape Resolution 2803 around three pillars:
* Post-genocide safeguards. Embed genocide-prevention and accountability into the mission's mandate by requiring cooperation with the U.N. Commission of Inquiry and relevant international courts and by aligning any security assistance and arms transfers with prevention obligations. The U.S. cannot credibly send troops to protect Palestinians while continuing to arm the same campaign that devastated Gaza.
* Palestinian co-ownership. Allocate half of the Board of Peace's votes to Palestinian representatives from national institutions and to Gaza-based municipal and civil society actors, and recognize the Palestinian executive committee as the core body for day-to-day governance. Any extension of the board and ISF beyond 2027 should require both a new Security Council vote and clear Palestinian consent.
* A rights-anchored transition and exit. Pair these institutional changes with a transition roadmap that goes beyond security indicators, including lifting movement and access restrictions, reopening crossings, rebuilding health and education systems, restoring due process, and creating civilian-protection mechanisms. Link this roadmap to halting settlement expansion and settler violence so Gaza's transition is embedded in a broader shift away from permanent occupation.
If President Trump ties his plan to enforceable benchmarks along these lines -- and checks Israeli obstructionism rather than indulging it -- the U.S. can help stabilize Gaza and secure a viable exit instead of inheriting an endless mission.
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View full version at: https://quincyinst.org/research/how-to-keep-resolution-2803-from-becoming-a-u-s-run-occupation/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Manhattan Institute: 'Hidden Tax on Your Power Bill: Construction Work in Progress'
NEW YORK, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Manhattan Institute issued the following issue brief on Dec. 4, 2025 by Eric Olson, Jack Dorminey and Jason M. Walter entitled "The Hidden Tax on Your Power Bill: Construction Work in Progress."
Here is the introduction:
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Construction Work in Progress, or CWIP, is the most influential energy policy term that never appears on a household utility bill. It shows up only on a regulated company's ledgers; yet the way regulators treat this line item can add real dollars to what families pay every month.
Ordinarily, large utility projects are financed the same
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NEW YORK, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Manhattan Institute issued the following issue brief on Dec. 4, 2025 by Eric Olson, Jack Dorminey and Jason M. Walter entitled "The Hidden Tax on Your Power Bill: Construction Work in Progress."
Here is the introduction:
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Construction Work in Progress, or CWIP, is the most influential energy policy term that never appears on a household utility bill. It shows up only on a regulated company's ledgers; yet the way regulators treat this line item can add real dollars to what families pay every month.
Ordinarily, large utility projects are financed the sameway as most private investments. A company raises debt and equity, builds the facility, and only after it is operational does it begin earning revenue. Investors shoulder the risk that costs may rise, schedules may slip, or demand may fall short. Customers start paying only once they receive the service.
CWIP turns that typical business sequence on its head. State commissions as well as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) have allowed utilities to move CWIP into the "rate base." The rate base is the pool of assets on which a utility earns a guaranteed rate of return. As such, when CWIP is approved, households are no longer just consumers of energy; they also become financiers, covering the carrying costs of projects still under construction. The policy was pitched as a practical tool to encourage construction. Initially, it kept investor-owned utilities solvent while they tackled expensive long-term projects, such as nuclear plants or extra-high voltage lines. In practice, it has produced inflated budgets through undisciplined spending and pushed risk from investors onto ratepayers.
Policymakers today face a choice. They can: 1) end CWIP entirely, forcing utilities to return to traditional debt/equity financing; 2) allow CWIP only under strict budget caps set at the outset of construction, with no change orders; or 3) make CWIP rates of return performance-based, rewarding projects that finish on time and on budget while penalizing overruns.
Given the anticipated increase in electricity demand from new data centers needed to power AI, federal and state officials need to ensure that ratepayers are not financing the costs of increased energy infrastructure through premature CWIP charges.
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View full issue brief at: https://manhattan.institute/article/the-hidden-tax-on-your-power-bill-construction-work-in-progress
[Category: Think Tank]
IWPR: 'Threats to Women's Reproductive Freedom and Maternal Health'
WASHINGTON, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Institute for Women's Policy Research issued the following policy brief on Dec. 11, 2025 entitled "Threats to Women's Reproductive Freedom and Maternal Health."
Here are excerpts:
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In July 2025, President Trump signed the Republican-led H.R. 1, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB), into law. The new law is a sweeping tax and spending package that forgoes trillions in federal revenues to award tax cuts to the wealthy while stripping essential care and protections from women and families. While implementation of the OBBB's wide-ranging provisions will
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WASHINGTON, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Institute for Women's Policy Research issued the following policy brief on Dec. 11, 2025 entitled "Threats to Women's Reproductive Freedom and Maternal Health."
Here are excerpts:
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In July 2025, President Trump signed the Republican-led H.R. 1, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB), into law. The new law is a sweeping tax and spending package that forgoes trillions in federal revenues to award tax cuts to the wealthy while stripping essential care and protections from women and families. While implementation of the OBBB's wide-ranging provisions willbe staggered in the coming months and years, the threat to women's economic security and well-being is both imminent and far-reaching across each of the Institute for Women's Policy Research's (IWPR) Federal Policy Solutions to Advance Gender Equity four priority areas.
This policy brief focuses on the OBBB's impacts on women's reproductive justice and health equity, specifically on the issues outlined in IWPR's Promoting Access to Abortion and Maternal Health policy briefs. More than three years after the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade, millions of women lack access to reproductive care and freedoms, and the Black maternal health crisis is worsening. The OBBB's cuts and restrictions to health care coverage programs will further compound these challenges. In addition to rising health care costs, the new law will have devastating impacts on the landscape of reproductive justice and health equity in the United States.
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View briefing paper: https://iwpr.org/threats-to-womens-reproductive-freedom-and-maternal-health/
IEEFA: 'TotalEnergies and EPH Launch Joint Venture Centred on Fossil Fuels'
WASHINGTON, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis issued the following on Dec. 17, 2025 by Jonathan Bruegel and Kevin Leung entitled "TotalEnergies and EPH launch joint venture centred on fossil fuels."
Here are the key findings:
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A planned joint venture between TotalEnergies and fossil fuel utility EPH will be a high-emission power generator. The joint venture should therefore provide clear and timely disclosures to allow stakeholders to assess carbon lock-in risks.
TotalEnergies' acquisition of high-emitting gas power plants undermines its climate
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WASHINGTON, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis issued the following on Dec. 17, 2025 by Jonathan Bruegel and Kevin Leung entitled "TotalEnergies and EPH launch joint venture centred on fossil fuels."
Here are the key findings:
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A planned joint venture between TotalEnergies and fossil fuel utility EPH will be a high-emission power generator. The joint venture should therefore provide clear and timely disclosures to allow stakeholders to assess carbon lock-in risks.
TotalEnergies' acquisition of high-emitting gas power plants undermines its climatetransition plan, as these units are unlikely to use green hydrogen for combustion.
TotalEnergies' acquisition rationale is underpinned by financial benefits from capacity payments. In IEEFA's view, this reliance reflects a distortion in energy market fundamentals and incoherence with energy transition trends.
Since EPH retains its exposure to high-emitting assets, its green financing strategy remains incoherent, even as a recent green bond issuance by one of its subsidiaries expands this strategy.
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View full briefing note at: https://ieefa.org/resources/totalenergies-and-eph-launch-joint-venture-centred-fossil-fuels
[Category: ThinkTank]
Economic & Social Research Institute: 'Introduction to the ESR Special Issue on Energy, Environment and Climate Change Economics'
DUBLIN, Ireland, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Economic and Social Research Institute issued the following journal article on Dec. 16, 2025 by Niall Farrell, Kelly C de Bruin and Jason Harold entitled "Introduction to the ESR Special Issue on Energy, Environment and Climate Change Economics."
Here is the abstract:
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This special issue contains four papers that highlight key economic issues in Irish climate and energy policy. The first paper tackles the decision to install a home energy retrofit, identifying factors that influence the financial viability of investment. The second paper quantifies
... Show Full Article
DUBLIN, Ireland, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Economic and Social Research Institute issued the following journal article on Dec. 16, 2025 by Niall Farrell, Kelly C de Bruin and Jason Harold entitled "Introduction to the ESR Special Issue on Energy, Environment and Climate Change Economics."
Here is the abstract:
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This special issue contains four papers that highlight key economic issues in Irish climate and energy policy. The first paper tackles the decision to install a home energy retrofit, identifying factors that influence the financial viability of investment. The second paper quantifiesthe air pollution impacts of domestic and EU-level carbon pricing.
The third paper shifts the focus to climate adaptation, showing that firms in flood-prone areas face higher credit costs, indicating that climate-related physical risks are at least partially priced into the cost of credit for Irish firms. However, the authors find that some firms in flood-prone areas face greater difficulty in accessing credit.
The final paper of this special issue provides a comparison of Irish emissions from production and consumption-based measurement techniques, revealing that Ireland's carbon footprint is larger under consumption-based measurement, offering insights for domestic policy design.
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View the full doc at: https://www.esri.ie/publications/introduction-to-the-esr-special-issue-on-energy-environment-and-climate-change
[Category: ThinkTank]
CSIS: 'Improving Transparency and Human Rights in Procurement: An Incentive-Based Approach'
WASHINGTON, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following report on Dec. 19, 2025 by Andrew Friedman entitled "Improving Transparency and Human Rights in Procurement: An Incentive-Based Approach."
Here are excerpts:
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The U.S. government is the single largest purchaser of goods in the world. In fiscal year 2024, the U.S. government obligated $755 billion, with approximately $259 billion spent on products, including many items that require multitiered and geographically diverse supply chains. This large purchasing power creates significant opportunities
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WASHINGTON, Dec. 25 (TNSLrpt) -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following report on Dec. 19, 2025 by Andrew Friedman entitled "Improving Transparency and Human Rights in Procurement: An Incentive-Based Approach."
Here are excerpts:
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The U.S. government is the single largest purchaser of goods in the world. In fiscal year 2024, the U.S. government obligated $755 billion, with approximately $259 billion spent on products, including many items that require multitiered and geographically diverse supply chains. This large purchasing power creates significant opportunitiesto foster positive change in supply chains and makes government procurement an important, and underutilized, inroad for the protection of human rights. This protection of human rights in supply chains is vital to both U.S. economic and national security interests. Without these protections, U.S. companies are forced to compete on price against companies using supply chains with forced labor or other labor rights violations, and malign actors who are implicated in a wide range of international crimes and foment instability can be empowered by human trafficking and forced labor.
This report explores potential means for utilizing this procurement capacity and creating greater space for human rights protections within federal government procurement. The report takes an additive view, examining ways in which incentives can be created for bidders to protect human rights in their supply chains, creating opportunities for the private sector to move toward cleaner and more transparent supply chains while maintaining and deepening its procurement relationships with the federal government. It also examines ways in which the federal government can work with the private sector to develop supply chains free of violations.
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The report is posted at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/improving-transparency-and-human-rights-procurement-incentive-based-approach
[Category: Think Tank]
