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Jamestown Foundation Posts Commentary: Russia Hits Strategic Ceiling With Attacks, Strikes, and Bluffs
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on June 1, 2026, by Pavel K. Baev, senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute Oslo, in the foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor:
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Russia Hits Strategic Ceiling With Attacks, Strikes, and Bluffs
Executive Summary:
* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on May 29 warned that there would soon be a new Russian large-scale missile/drone strike on Kyiv amid Russia's intensified nuclear brinkmanship.
* Moscow's recent nuclear brinkmanship includes missile tests, military exercises, and another
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on June 1, 2026, by Pavel K. Baev, senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute Oslo, in the foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor:
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Russia Hits Strategic Ceiling With Attacks, Strikes, and Bluffs
Executive Summary:
* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on May 29 warned that there would soon be a new Russian large-scale missile/drone strike on Kyiv amid Russia's intensified nuclear brinkmanship.
* Moscow's recent nuclear brinkmanship includes missile tests, military exercises, and anotherOreshnik strike near Kyiv. Rather than intimidating European countries, these actions appear to be accelerating regional cooperation on air defense, counter-drone capabilities, and broader nuclear deterrence initiatives.
* Each day of heavy-casualty and zero-yield attacks on Ukraine degrades Russia's military capabilities and brings a new package of aid and investment in European defense structures. Each attempt at nuclear blackmail exposes the disarray in Russian elites and society.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on May 29 that there would be a new Russian large-scale missile/drone strike on Kyiv. This strike is not just probable, but certain to come (Meduza, May 29). It will inflict damage to some apartment blocks and the city infrastructure, of about the same scale as the previous one on May 24, and the one before it on May 14 (Novaya gazeta Europe, May 25). The pattern of Russia's attacks is well established, with only slight variations in the types of missiles and duration of the waves of incoming drones. This time, however, the Russian leadership is trying to make a threat of particular gravity and has suggested the evacuation of foreign diplomats (Vedomosti, May 29). U.S. and European embassies refused to evacuate, showing their perceptions of the limits of Russia's capabilities (Forbes.ru, May 28). Moscow has thrown every destructive projectile it can build at the Ukrainian capital. While Russia can count on Ukraine's depletion of surface-to-air missile stocks, particularly the MIM-104 Patriot, it cannot expect a decline in Ukrainian resilience (Rossiiskaya gazeta, May 29).
The volume of Russian missile/drone strikes increased only slightly in May compared with April or March. The intensity of Russia's nuclear brinksmanship, however, has registered an extraordinary surge (Nezavisimaya gazeta, May 19; see EDM, May 26). It started with the test launch of the new heavy intercontinental missile Sarmat, followed by exercises of strategic and non-strategic forces--including on the territory of Belarus--and culminated with a strike on Bila Tserkva--around 80 kilometers (50 miles) to the south of Kyiv--by the intermediate range Oreshnik missile (Current time, May 26).
The spread of these demonstrations of nuclear might was expected to impress various audiences. Even domestic warmongers, however, were left disheartened (TopWar.ru, May 22). Following Moscow's nuclear posturing, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio to draw his attention to the forthcoming strikes on Kyiv (Lenta.ru, May 25; Kommersant, May 26).
In Europe, Russian brinksmanship was closely monitored. The French initiative to expand nuclear deterrence gained new supporters, including Norway, to the scorn of Moscow pundits (Vzglyad, May 29). Greater concerns, however, are focused on the threat from Russian drones, and the hit on an apartment block in Galati, Romania on May 29 illuminated this problem (Rossiiskaya gazeta, May 29). That incident did not constitute a deliberate attack, but each wave of Russian drones targeting Odesa involves high risk of incursions into Romania's airspace, and the scope of similar security challenges in the Baltic region is even greater (Current time, May 28). Russian electronic and kinetic countermeasures against the Ukrainian drone attacks on the Primorsk and Ust-Luga oil terminals inevitably divert them toward Estonia, Finland, and further westward, so these states are urgently expanding cooperation with Ukraine in anti-drone defenses (The Moscow Times, May 30). Moscow accuses the Baltic states of opening "corridors" for drone attacks and even providing infrastructure for launching them (TopWar.ru; The Moscow Times, May 26).
Russia cannot respond in kind to these exercises because its ground forces are concentrated on the Ukrainian front, where the course of hostilities has taken a turn in Ukraine's favor. The mainstream media in Moscow is instructed to ignore these developments (Izvestiya, May 29). The severe effect of Ukrainian middle-strikes on logistics of Russian groupings and supplies to Crimea is impossible to deny, as the shoulders of the key Mariupol-Simferopol road are crowded by burned trucks (Radio Svoboda, May 26; Nezavisimaya gazeta, May 28). Russian command may presently have a better picture of the situation in the battle zones because, during spring, the number of reconnaissance satellites was significantly increased by several launches, including the more modern Angara-1.2 rocket on April 23 (Naked-Science.ru, April 23). The top brass, nevertheless, keeps reporting to the commander-in-chief only what he wants to hear, so Putin continues to assert steady advances of Russian troops (Kommersant, May 30). The failing strategy of slow conquest of the Donbas is therefore maintained, while the negative balance of losses and reinforcements continues to accumulate (Re: Russia, May 25).
The costs of this unworkable strategy are mounting, and discontent in society is deepening accordingly. Among elites, ritual demonstrations of loyalty serve as a thin camouflage for worries about the depth and duration of the economic recession (The Moscow Times, May 27; Levada.ru, May 28). Russian President Vladimir Putin is simultaneously dismissive of changes in public mood and nervous about them, so he persists in the discourse of achieving a clear victory while promising to conclude the war in the near future (Vedomosti, May 29). His propaganda machine trumpets conflicting messages, and selective repression is only spreading angst among top bureaucrats and wealthy entrepreneurs (The Moscow Times, May 30). The lull in peace talks has become an awkward issue, and Putin remains hesitant to signal readiness for meaningful compromises necessary to restart the conversation with Washington (Izvestiya, May 30). He would not want to negotiate with the firmly pro-Ukrainian Europe, but still entertains the proposition that a combination of threats and false promises would erode this solidarity (RIAC, May 21; Novaya gazeta Europe, May 28).
Putin still fancies peace talks from a position of strength and seemingly cannot comprehend the rapid decline into weakness. Each day of heavy-casualty and zero-yield attacks degrades Russia's military capabilities. Each round of massive strikes on Ukraine brings a new package of aid and investment in European defense structures. Each attempt at nuclear blackmail exposes the disarray in Russian elites and society. Disoriented and fragmented as the society is, and apprehensive and egoistic as the elites are, they have one want in common--bringing the self-destructing war to an end. Standing in the way of this longing is a dangerous stance for Putin, but he has exhausted his arsenal of military means and diplomatic intrigues, while crossing the nuclear threshold is a step too risky for the aging autocrat obsessed with personal safety.
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Dr. Pavel K. Baev is a senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO).
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Original text here: https://jamestown.org/russia-hits-strategic-ceiling-with-attacks-strikes-and-bluffs/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Ifo Institute: Material Shortage in German Manufacturing Intensifies
MUNICH, Germany, June 2 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release:
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Material Shortage in German Manufacturing Intensifies
Manufacturing companies in Germany are finding it increasingly difficult to stock up on intermediate products. In May, 15.9% of manufacturing companies reported bottlenecks, up from 13.8% in April.
"Supply chains remain tense," says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. "Particularly industries with a high demand for oil- and energy-intensive intermediate products are feeling the effects of the geopolitical tensions."
The chemical industry has been hit hard,
... Show Full Article
MUNICH, Germany, June 2 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release:
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Material Shortage in German Manufacturing Intensifies
Manufacturing companies in Germany are finding it increasingly difficult to stock up on intermediate products. In May, 15.9% of manufacturing companies reported bottlenecks, up from 13.8% in April.
"Supply chains remain tense," says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. "Particularly industries with a high demand for oil- and energy-intensive intermediate products are feeling the effects of the geopolitical tensions."
The chemical industry has been hit hard,with 31.2% of companies reporting a shortage of materials. The situation also remains difficult for manufacturers of rubber and plastic products: The share rose to 23.7%.
In the electronics industry, around one in four companies are reporting problems with the supply of materials. In the automotive industry, the share is comparatively low at 10.0%, "Compared to the long-term average prior to 2020, which stands industry wide at around five percent, these figures are alarmingly high," says Wohlrabe.
"It is quite possible that a number of companies will have to cut back on production as a result of the bottlenecks."
Consumer-related industries remain largely unaffected by the shortage. No bottlenecks were reported in the beverage industry. The share for food manufacturers was 6.9%.
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More Information
Survey (https://www.ifo.de/en/facts/2026-06-02/material-shortage-german-manufacturing-intensifies)
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Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2026-06-02/material-shortage-german-manufacturing-intensifies
[Category: ThinkTank]
Ifo Institute Recommends Integration of Housing Benefit and Child Supplement Into Reformed Basic Income Support in Germany
MUNICH, Germany, June 2 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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The ifo Institute Recommends Integration of Housing Benefit and Child Supplement into Reformed Basic Income Support in Germany
Reformed basic income support that integrates additional benefits such as housing benefit and child supplement would have a positive impact on the labor supply and the state budget. That's according to calculations by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). "Supplementary income regulations are important for these objectives.
People who want to
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MUNICH, Germany, June 2 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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The ifo Institute Recommends Integration of Housing Benefit and Child Supplement into Reformed Basic Income Support in Germany
Reformed basic income support that integrates additional benefits such as housing benefit and child supplement would have a positive impact on the labor supply and the state budget. That's according to calculations by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). "Supplementary income regulations are important for these objectives.
People who want toswitch to jobs subject to social security contributions should have less deducted from their transfer payments. Conversely, more should be offset for households without children in mini jobs," says Maximilian Blomer, Head of Ex-Ante Policy Evaluation at the ifo Institute.
The IAB and the ifo Institute had each independently analyzed several reform proposals using so-called microsimulations and provided consensus estimates for 84 reform options.
"The adjustments to the parameters show that merging housing benefit and child supplement into basic income support with revised supplementary income regulations would largely result in fiscal savings," says IAB researcher Kerstin Bruckmeier, adding that care must however be taken to ensure that households with children and long weekly working hours would not be worse off than they under the current system.
According to the researchers' calculations, other reform approaches, such as simply combining housing benefit and child supplement, would have a weaker impact or even result in additional costs.
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Publication
2026 Monograph (Authorship)
Mikrosimulationsrechnungen zu Reformoptionen steuerfinanzierter Sozialleistungen Maximilian Joseph Blomer, Holger Bonin, Kerstin Bruckmeier, Lilly Fischer, Theresa Lange, Manuel Pannier, Maximilian Sommer, Holger Stichnoth, Jurgen Wiemers
Forschungsbericht 681
Learn more (https://www.ifo.de/en/publications/2026/monograph-authorship/mikrosimulationsrechnungen-zu-reformoptionen)
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Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2026-06-01/ifo-institute-recommends-integration-housing-benefit-and-child-supplement
[Category: ThinkTank]
Center for Economic & Policy Research: Proposed Rule Boosts Private Equity and Threatens Workers' Retirement Security
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The Center for Economic and Policy Research issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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Proposed Rule Boosts Private Equity and Threatens Workers' Retirement Security
Today, CEPR senior economist and co-director Eileen Appelbaum submitted a public comment letter to the Department of Labor outlining the weaknesses and inherit risks in the department's proposed rule to expose worker's retirement funds to private equity and private credit funds.
Appelbaum - co-author of the award-winning book Private Equity at Work: When Wall Street Manages Main Street - argues
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The Center for Economic and Policy Research issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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Proposed Rule Boosts Private Equity and Threatens Workers' Retirement Security
Today, CEPR senior economist and co-director Eileen Appelbaum submitted a public comment letter to the Department of Labor outlining the weaknesses and inherit risks in the department's proposed rule to expose worker's retirement funds to private equity and private credit funds.
Appelbaum - co-author of the award-winning book Private Equity at Work: When Wall Street Manages Main Street - arguesthat the proposed rule will not protect employers from being sued over including high fee, risky and illiquid assets in retirement portfolios. Appelbaum argues that the Department of Labor's proposal is focused on "reducing fiduciaries' liability, not on protecting workers' retirement savings. It does not propose raising fiduciary standards and improving decision-making for employers planning to include riskier, illiquid assets in 401(k) and similar plans."
Further, the proposal invites a temptation for private equity funds to dump poor performing assets into alternative products that will be marketed to workers' 401(k)s and similar retirement accounts.
Appelbaum shows that the current shaky status of private equity and private credit is well-covered in the financial press, a clear sign that workers and employers alike are aware of the risks of such investments. Indeed, many institutions and wealthy individuals are going to great lengths to reduce their exposure to such assets.
As the letter argues:
"These are not prudent investment choices for workers but a thinly disguised bailout for struggling Wall Street firms. The DOL does not have the authority to eliminate employees' right to sue over poor investment choices and disappointing returns, as the Proposal implicitly acknowledges. Employers can expect to be sued if they imprudently choose to include these assets in workers' retirement accounts. DOL's Proposal will likely prove a weak defense in court against such suits."
Read the full public comment here (https://cepr.net/publications/eileen-appelbaum-comment-on-dols-proposal-for-alternative-investments-in-retirement-accounts/).
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Original text here: https://cepr.net/newsroom/proposed-rule-boosts-private-equity-and-threatens-workers-retirement-security/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Center for American Progress: Diversity Policy Rollbacks Are Crippling U.S. Public Health Infrastructure
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The Center for American Progress issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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Diversity Policy Rollbacks Are Crippling U.S. Public Health Infrastructure
A cascading series of recent federal policy rollbacks, executive actions, and budget cuts under the second Trump administration has begun dismantling the United States' public health infrastructure--severely undermining national health security. Underpinning many of these policy changes is the explicit targeting of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives.
A new analysis (https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-federal-attacks-on-diversity-and-inclusion-policies-have-dismantled-public-health-infrastructure-and-threaten-national-health-security/)
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The Center for American Progress issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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Diversity Policy Rollbacks Are Crippling U.S. Public Health Infrastructure
A cascading series of recent federal policy rollbacks, executive actions, and budget cuts under the second Trump administration has begun dismantling the United States' public health infrastructure--severely undermining national health security. Underpinning many of these policy changes is the explicit targeting of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives.
A new analysis (https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-federal-attacks-on-diversity-and-inclusion-policies-have-dismantled-public-health-infrastructure-and-threaten-national-health-security/)from the Center for American Progress in collaboration with the Rutgers School of Public Health breaks down the tangible economic, workforce, health, and national security impacts of dismantling diversity programs and initiatives from the American ecosystem. The authors also offer federal policy recommendations to reverse this damage and strengthen the nation's health security infrastructure.
Key findings from the analysis include:
* Public health interventions are increasingly being driven by political agendas rather than grounded, scientific metrics.
* Eliminating health tracking programs--on maternal mortality or environmental contamination, for example--leaves the United States without vital early warning systems able to detect emerging threats.
* The loss of preventive infrastructure shifts the national economy into an expensive crisis response mode.
"Choosing political ideology over scientific evidence doesn't just hurt marginalized communities--it dismantles the infrastructure keeping all of us safe," said Mariam Rashid, associate director of Racial Equity and Justice Policy at CAP and co-author of the report. "By going down that road, we're leaving Americans exposed to longer disease outbreaks, higher costs, and preventable crises."
Read the analysis: "How Federal Attacks on Diversity and Inclusion Policies Have Dismantled Public Health Infrastructure and Threaten National Health Security" (https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-federal-attacks-on-diversity-and-inclusion-policies-have-dismantled-public-health-infrastructure-and-threaten-national-health-security/) by Mariam Rashid and Perry N. Halkitis
For more information or to speak with an expert, contact Mishka Espey at eespey@americanprogress.org.
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Original text here: https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release-diversity-policy-rollbacks-are-crippling-u-s-public-health-infrastructure/
[Category: ThinkTank]
AFPI-NJ Condemns Violence at Delaney Hall, Calls for Order and Support for Federal Officers
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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AFPI-NJ Condemns Violence at Delaney Hall, Calls for Order and Support for Federal Officers
TRENTON, NJ - The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) New Jersey Chapter today responded to the ongoing violence and unrest outside the Delaney Hall immigration detention facility in Newark, where demonstrators and out-of-state instigators have viciously targeted federal agents and New Jersey State Police over the past week, leading to arrests, the assault of officers, threats against the
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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AFPI-NJ Condemns Violence at Delaney Hall, Calls for Order and Support for Federal Officers
TRENTON, NJ - The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) New Jersey Chapter today responded to the ongoing violence and unrest outside the Delaney Hall immigration detention facility in Newark, where demonstrators and out-of-state instigators have viciously targeted federal agents and New Jersey State Police over the past week, leading to arrests, the assault of officers, threats against thefamilies of law enforcement, and a curfew for the half-mile around Delaney Hall.
Michael John Donohue, Chair of AFPI's New Jersey Chapter, said:
"What we're watching outside Delaney Hall is not a protest; it's a mob. Federal officers are being bitten, pelted, and shoved for doing the exact job the law asks of them. Every New Jerseyan should be able to agree on one thing: you don't get to assault a law enforcement officer because you don't like the law he's enforcing. The detainees inside that facility are there because they have broken the law -- full stop. It's long past time our elected officials stopped feeding the chaos and started backing the men and women in uniform."
Matthew Rooney, Executive Director of AFPI New Jersey, added:
"When local leaders treat federal immigration enforcement as something shameful, they hand a permission slip to bad actors who want to hurt our police . New Jersey families want safe streets and a justice system that works; as we're witnessing in real time at Delaney Hall, 'sanctuary statehood' produces the exact opposite. We can have an honest debate about immigration in this country, but not while officers are being attacked. Prosecute those who assault them, restore order in Newark, and let our courageous agents finish the job that they volunteered to do."
Learn more about AFPI New Jersey here (https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/state-chapter/america-first-new-jersey).
Michael Donohue is the AFPI New Jersey Chair and a retired New Jersey Superior Court judge who served in the Criminal Division.
Matthew Rooney is the AFPI New Jersey Executive Director and a practicing New Jersey attorney with 15 years of experience serving as a municipal prosecutor.
Both are available for interviews. Click here (https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/contact/comms-team) to schedule.
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Original text here: https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/issues/afpi-nj-condemns-violence-at-delaney-hall-calls-for-order-and-support-for-federal-officers
[Category: ThinkTank]
AFPI's America First Women's Initiative Launches Patriot Postcard Program
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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AFPI's America First Women's Initiative Launches Patriot Postcard Program
The America First Policy Institute's America First Women's Initiative has launched the Patriot Postcard Program to encourage women to vote, engage in their communities, and make their voices heard.
The program will connect women from all over the country with those who can most benefit from learning about America First policies and their impact on communities nationwide.
Through virtual and in-person events,
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, June 2 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following news release on June 1, 2026:
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AFPI's America First Women's Initiative Launches Patriot Postcard Program
The America First Policy Institute's America First Women's Initiative has launched the Patriot Postcard Program to encourage women to vote, engage in their communities, and make their voices heard.
The program will connect women from all over the country with those who can most benefit from learning about America First policies and their impact on communities nationwide.
Through virtual and in-person events,the America First Women's Initiative will bring women together to write postcards to their counterparts across the nation to help foster a strong community centered on engagement, encouragement, and meaningful connection.
"Voting is not only our right, but it is our sacred duty as Americans, and many people are trying to discourage women from participating in elections," said Stacey Schieffelin, Chair of the America First Women's Initiative & Chief External Affairs Officer.
"It's our duty as sisters to help fight back against this and encourage civic engagement on the issues we care about."
To get involved, request complimentary postcards, host a Patriot Postcard event in your community, or join the Patriot Postcard Program click here (https://afpiwomen.com/).
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Original text here: https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/issues/afpis-america-first-womens-initiative-launches-patriot-postcard-program
[Category: ThinkTank]
