Think Tanks
Think Tanks
Here's a look at documents from think tanks
Featured Stories
Ifo Institute: Tax Exemption on Overtime Bonuses in Germany is of Little Benefit
MUNICH, Germany, Dec. 6 (TNSxrep) -- ifo Institute issued the following news release:* * *
Tax Exemption on Overtime Bonuses in Germany is of Little Benefit
The tax exemption on overtime bonuses planned by the German government achieves hardly any positive employment stimulus, according to a study conducted by the ifo Institute on behalf of the New Social Free Market Initiative. As a result of the planned reform, the state would earn between EUR 11 and EUR 45 million less. Although between 3,000 and 12,000 full-time jobs could be created, it would not offset the shortfalls in tax revenue. "The ... Show Full Article MUNICH, Germany, Dec. 6 (TNSxrep) -- ifo Institute issued the following news release: * * * Tax Exemption on Overtime Bonuses in Germany is of Little Benefit The tax exemption on overtime bonuses planned by the German government achieves hardly any positive employment stimulus, according to a study conducted by the ifo Institute on behalf of the New Social Free Market Initiative. As a result of the planned reform, the state would earn between EUR 11 and EUR 45 million less. Although between 3,000 and 12,000 full-time jobs could be created, it would not offset the shortfalls in tax revenue. "Thebottom line is that the planned reform would have hardly any effect on employment, tax revenue and growth," says ifo researcher Volker Meier.
According to the study, the reason for the low impact of the planned reform is that even after the reform, only a fraction of employees will receive overtime bonuses. "On average, these full-time employees are expected to work seven hours of overtime per week. However, the tax exemption will only increase their weekly working hours by around half an hour on average," says ifo researcher Leander Andres. In 2024, slightly less than 4.4 of a total of 39.1 million employees in Germany accrued overtime. Of these, 71 percent (3.1 million) compensated for overtime with a working time account. 19 percent were not paid for overtime. Only 16 percent, or a total of around 688,000 employees, actually worked paid overtime.
In the 2025 coalition agreement, the CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to exempt only the bonuses on overtime pay from income tax. The taxation of regular overtime pay remains untouched. Overtime bonuses also remain subject to social security contributions. In addition, the reform will only apply to full-time employees. With regard to the tax exemption amount, the maximum tax-free bonus is limited to 25 percent of the normal hourly rate.
* * *
Publication
2025 Article in Journal
Wirkungen der Steuerfreiheit auf UberstundenzuschlAge
Volker Meier, Leander Andres
ifo Schnelldienst digital, 2025, 6, Nr. 2301-06
Learn more (https://www.ifo.de/en/publications/2025/article-journal/wirkungen-der-steuerfreiheit-auf-ueberstundenzuschlaege)
* * *
Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2025-12-05/tax-exemption-on-overtime-bonuses-germany-little-benefit
[Category: ThinkTank]
Hudson Institute Issues Commentary to Arab News: Arctic Region Becoming Increasingly Contested
WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 -- Hudson Institute, a research organization that says it promotes leadership for a secure, free and prosperous future, issued the following commentary on Dec. 5, 2025, to Arab News:* * *
Arctic Region Becoming Increasingly Contested
By Luke Coffey
In a surprising move at this time of year, a tanker from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project on Wednesday traveled along the Northern Sea Route to markets in Asia even as winter conditions were beginning to set in. Russia transporting liquefied natural gas to Asian markets, particularly China, along its northern coast is hardly unusual. ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 6 -- Hudson Institute, a research organization that says it promotes leadership for a secure, free and prosperous future, issued the following commentary on Dec. 5, 2025, to Arab News: * * * Arctic Region Becoming Increasingly Contested By Luke Coffey In a surprising move at this time of year, a tanker from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project on Wednesday traveled along the Northern Sea Route to markets in Asia even as winter conditions were beginning to set in. Russia transporting liquefied natural gas to Asian markets, particularly China, along its northern coast is hardly unusual.What stands out here is the timing.
Regular commercial traffic on the Northern Sea Route typically tapers off by November as ice conditions worsen, with navigation normally concentrated in the July-November period. Unusually favorable weather this year, combined with Russia's desperation to generate revenue wherever possible from its energy exports, created conditions for this rare late-season voyage.
This move by Russia should serve as a reminder to international policymakers about the importance of the Arctic and great power competition. With established Arctic powers like the US, the European countries in the High North and Russia being joined by assertive non-Arctic states such as China, the region is being increasingly contested. The Arctic is rich in natural resources, hosting vast reserves of oil and gas. It is also a major source of global food supply through its fisheries and a crucial hub for scientific research aimed at understanding climate patterns and their worldwide impact.
The Arctic, however, is not immune to geopolitical shocks. The war in Ukraine has disrupted established patterns of governance and security cooperation. The Arctic Council -- the primary intergovernmental body promoting collaboration among the eight Arctic states -- has seen its high-level political activity largely paralyzed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Cooperation with Moscow remains frozen, even though some project-level work among the other seven Arctic states has resumed in a limited format.
Meanwhile, NATO -- traditionally cautious in its Arctic posture -- has enlarged to include Finland and Sweden, fundamentally altering the regional security landscape. As a result, seven of the eight Arctic states now fall under NATO's security umbrella.
In the past several weeks alone, three developments have underscored why the Arctic remains an area of strategic importance, even as global attention is focused on Ukraine, Gaza and Venezuela.
The first was the Trump administration's October announcement that it will expedite the purchase and construction of a new class of icebreakers known as the Arctic Security Cutter. In President Donald Trump's recent budget, more than $8.6 billion was earmarked to enlarge the Coast Guard's polar icebreaker fleet as a whole -- funding that includes both the troubled Polar Security Cutter program and the newly prioritized Arctic Security Cutters.
This effort builds on the work Trump began during his first administration to launch the Polar Security Cutter initiative. But after years of delays and significant cost overruns, much of the optimism surrounding that program has diminished. The Arctic Security Cutter program is now emerging as a more viable and immediate path to expanding US icebreaking capability.
As part of an agreement with Finland, the US will allow Finnish shipyards to build the first several Arctic Security Cutters, with additional vessels constructed in the US. This highlights the urgency the Trump administration places on America's role in the Arctic, while demonstrating that the president can be flexible about his usual protectionist stance on domestic manufacturing. Many observers believed it would have been unthinkable for Trump to permit US Coast Guard vessels to be constructed overseas, even in a friendly nation such as Finland. But geopolitical realities appear to have influenced the White House's approach.
Meanwhile, the EU on Monday took steps to advance its role in the Arctic region, calling on the European Council and the European Commission to develop a stronger and more coherent EU diplomatic strategy for the Arctic.
For the EU as an institution, the Arctic has long been a difficult region in which to operate. Many Arctic-related policy areas remain the competencies of individual member states, limiting the bloc's ability to legislate or act effectively. In addition, a major Arctic power, Norway, is not a member of the EU and another key northern actor, the UK, left the bloc after Brexit. Greenland also left the European Economic Community in 1985 after gaining home rule from Denmark.
These bureaucratic and geographical constraints have relegated the EU to a secondary role in the region. Still, the European Parliament's push this week signals that Brussels views the Arctic as a strategic priority.
Finally, there is Russia. In the context of the peace talks Trump is brokering between Russia and Ukraine, many were surprised by the emphasis placed on potential US-Russian economic cooperation, particularly in energy and trade. For Trump, part of the motivation for ending the war is to create new business opportunities for the US.
Some of the ideas reportedly discussed include renewed cooperation in Arctic energy projects -- areas that carry implications for both Russia's Arctic developments and US interests in Alaska. Although the policy consensus in Washington is that economic and trade overtures to Russia by the US are naive, it nonetheless appears to be a key factor in Trump's negotiations.
After years of economic sanctions, Russia urgently needs foreign investment to develop its Arctic energy and transit infrastructure. As the world's largest Arctic state, the region has long held a special place in Russian national identity. Successive leaders have promoted its Arctic role to bolster domestic support. But sanctions have forced Moscow to turn to China to fill the investment gap -- strengthening Beijing's Arctic ambitions in ways that likely make Russia uneasy.
If a comprehensive peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia emerges, policymakers should not be surprised if Arctic-related US-Russian commercial arrangements form part of the settlement.
With Trump moving to strengthen America's presence in the region, Europe seeking a more coherent approach and Moscow continuing to prioritize the Arctic, the High North will remain an area of geopolitical importance. The question is whether it can remain a zone of peace and stability.
Read in Arab News (https://www.arabnews.com/node/2625116).
* * *
Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/arctic-region-becoming-increasingly-contested-luke-coffey
[Category: ThinkTank]
Jamestown Foundation Issues Commentary to Terrorism Monitor: Militias Assist PRC-Based Ventures Mining Rare Earth Elements in Myanmar
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- he Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025, in its Terrorism Monitor:* * *
Militias Assist PRC-Based Ventures Mining Rare Earth Elements in Myanmar
By Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan
Executive Summary:
* PRC-based firms are expanding rare-earth mining in Myanmar's Shan and Kachin States by partnering with militias that lease mines, provide security, and tax exports.
* Satellite imagery shows a rapid increase in REE sites since 2015, turning militia-held enclaves into major suppliers of dysprosium, terbium, and other critical minerals for the PRC.
* ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- he Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025, in its Terrorism Monitor: * * * Militias Assist PRC-Based Ventures Mining Rare Earth Elements in Myanmar By Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan Executive Summary: * PRC-based firms are expanding rare-earth mining in Myanmar's Shan and Kachin States by partnering with militias that lease mines, provide security, and tax exports. * Satellite imagery shows a rapid increase in REE sites since 2015, turning militia-held enclaves into major suppliers of dysprosium, terbium, and other critical minerals for the PRC. *As United States-PRC competition intensifies, Myanmar's fragmented sovereignty enables armed groups with ties to Beijing to shape REE supply chains, complicating potential U.S. and Indian efforts to source Burmese minerals.
Introduction
Chinese firms have been engaging in large-scale extraction of rare earth elements (REEs) in Myanmar with the help of ethnic militias./[1] Much of this synergistic mining occurs in Shan and Kachin States (Global Witness, May 23, 2024; ISP Myanmar, June 10; Mongabay, September 16). With the absence of state authority in Myanmar, rebel groups have tightened, expanded, and concentrated their territorial grip over rare earth belts in those two states and increased the scale of REE mining. The PRC is believed to be "hoarding" REEs, reporting a 70 percent jump in their import in early 2023 (The Irrawaddy, December 28, 2024; ISP Myanmar, March 25). This REE mining boom and Chinese import dominance have drawn the attention of the United States and India, which may now consider sourcing REEs from Burmese mines (Mining, September 11; SCMP, September 18).
Main Rebel Groups and Militias Mining REEs in Myanmar
United Wa State Army (UWSA)
The United Wa State Army (UWSA) is a strongly pro-PRC ethnic militia of the Wa People. The UWSA traces its origins back to 1989, when the Bamar-led Communist Party of Burma (CPB) disintegrated and split into four ethnic armies, which later signed ceasefires with the Tatmadaw (The Irrawaddy, September 4)./[2]
The four ethnic armies are the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), the Kachin Independence Army... Afterward, the UWSA formed its political wing, called the United Wa State Party (UWSP) based in Shan State. The group boasts 30,000 armed soldiers in its regular rank-and-file and 20,000 soldiers in strategic reserve, along with a provision of mandatory conscription from each Wa household (The Irrawaddy, February 26, 2020; The Irrawaddy, August 31, 2022).
UWSA forces are equipped with sophisticated weaponry. Their materiel includes vehicles, helicopters, military-grade drones, and anti-aircraft missiles. The militia also possesses its own weapons factory and has frequently supplied small arms to other allied ethnic armies (Grey Dynamics, June 20). Further, it chairs the largest and most powerful ethnic army alliance in Myanmar, known as the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) (PRIO, September 10, 2024)./[3]
The UWSA governs the autonomous Wa Self-Administration Division (Wa-SAD). The Wa-SAD is also known as Shan State Special Region 2 and popularly called Wa State. This state is divided into two separate northern and southern enclaves bordering the PRC and Thailand respectively (Global Asia, December 1, 2023). The capital and headquarters of Wa State and UWSA is Pangkham (Wa: Pang Kham) also known as Panghsang. Wa State is modelled as a one-party socialist state, with its own governance, education, administration, justice, taxation, and law enforcement structures independent of Myanmar's central government. Wa leader Bao Youxiang (Wa: Tax Log Pang) is the de facto president, party secretary, and supreme commander of Wa State, UWSP, and UWSA (ISP Myanmar, June 17).
The UWSA is infamous for being one of the largest drug traffickers in Myanmar. As a result, UWSA and UWSP had officially been sanctioned since 2005 by the U.S. Treasury Department for narcotics trafficking (Modern Insurgent, January 17, US Department of Treasury, November 5, 2005). Wa State traditionally produced heroin, but partially switched to amphetamine products as a result of declining poppy cultivation in the 2000s (The Irrawaddy, November 2008),
The group is now focused on a new revenue source from the boom of rare earth mining inside its territory. Satellite images reveal mines have increased at least eightfold since 2015, with at least 26 mining sites as of February 2025. These mines are leased to Chinese companies in exchange for a share of profit. UWSA soldiers ensure the security of Chinese ventures as well as smooth shipments of REEs to the PRC (SHRF, June 19; Al Jazeera, August 7; TDS, June 12).
Wa State is also a critical node for the world's tin supply chain. As of 2022, it produces around 10 percent of all global tin concentrate, with at least 70 percent of all Burmese tin sourced from Wa State (International Tin Association, April 17, 2023)./[4] In 2023, the UWSA stopped tin production to conserve the remaining tin in its territories, triggering a tin shortage for Chinese smelters. This past July, however, the UWSA decided to resume operations of these tin mines (The Irrawaddy, July 23).
National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA)
The National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA, popularly known as the Mong La Army) is a small but significant ethnic army based in Shan State. It is another one of the four major ethnic armies established after the disintegration of the CPB (ISP Myanmar, August 20). Its official principle is "peace, unity, and development" and practices a non-aligned political stance. The political wing of NDAA is known as the Peace and Solidarity Committee (Myanmar Peace Monitor, September 9). The estimated strength of the NDAA is around 5,000 men distributed in four brigades, controlling Shan State Special Region 4, with Mong La District as its capital. NDAA-controlled territories have not yet been designated under official Self-Administered Zone (SAZ) status, but function under their own parallel governance structures similar to the UWSA (ISP Myanmar, August 20; Myanmar Peace Monitor, September 9).
NDAA-governed territories had been infamous for harboring criminal syndicates that operate narcotics, gambling, and prostitution rings (Time, March 9, 2014; Vice, December 14, 2015). The territories are also highly dependent on cross-border economic exchanges with neighboring Yunnan (province in the PRC. Additionally, NDAA-controlled areas are crucial for connecting projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), part of the PRC's Belt and Road Initiative (ISP Myanmar, August 20).
The Mong La region under the NDAA has seen a surge in mining operations. At least 19 new REE mines have been observed operating in 2025--up from only three in 2021, as per satellite images. These mines, similar to the UWSA model, are mostly operated by Chinese stakeholders and are guarded by NDAA soldiers in exchange for revenues and levies (SHRF, August 25; Mizzima, August 26; SHAN, August 26).
Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
The Kachin Independence Army (Kachin: Wunpawng Mungdan Shanglawt Hpyen Dap, KIA) was formed in 1961 to achieve an independent state for the Kachin people. It is one of the oldest militias in contemporary Myanmar. Contrary to most other militias, the organization's political wing, the Kachin Independence Organization (Kachin: Wunpawng Gumrawng Gumtsa Mungdan, KIO), was formed first, followed by its military wing. The KIA now envisions establishing Kachin State as part of a federal system that ensures self-governance and autonomy (ISEAS Perspective, March 7; ISP Myanmar, August 20).
The KIA is composed of 11 brigades and an estimated 15,000 soldiers in its ranks. These 11 brigades operate in both Kachin and Shan States, and include two mobile regiments, three special battalions, 24 regionally based battalions, and 27 mobile battalions (ISP Myanmar, August 20). KIA fighters are predominantly Christians, with most recruits coming from Jingpo, the largest Kachin subgroup. These Kachin rebels are headquartered in Laiza near the Chinese border (Frontier Myanmar, February 25, 2020; The Irrawaddy, December 9).
The nearly two-decades-long KIA-Myanmar ceasefire broke down in 2011 (Tamil Guardian, October 15, 2023; CSIS, July 17, 2024). Since the 2021 military coup, the KIA has also allied with the pro-democracy National Unity Government (GNU) and its armed wing, the People's Defense Forces (PDF), in waging a full-on insurgency against the Tatmadaw. The KIA also plays a leading role in the central military command and control structure of other pro-democratic rebel groups in Myanmar (The Irrawaddy, December 9, 2024; The Irrawaddy, August 25).
The group funds itself primarily through jade mining, checkpoint levies, and informal cross-border trade with the PRC (Geopolitical Monitor, February 27, 2024). Unlike other Burmese militias, the KIA does not rely on narcotics production and trade for revenue (BNI, February 28, 2019). Instead, the KIA oversees jade mines run by Chinese nationals and corporations, which provide the KIA with taxes and revenues (RFA, February 26, 2024).
The KIA found a new source of revenue by seizing control of Chipwi and Pangwa townships and their rare earth mines from a rival pro-Tatmadaw militia. These mines possess dysprosium and terbium, which are essential in the production of electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced defense systems. KIA now governs these key resource zones, manages export taxation, and negotiates directly with the PRC when it exports these REEs (ISP Myanmar, September 26; Stimson Center, June 24).
New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDA-K)
New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDA-K) has a history of entanglement with other militias. It was formed as part of the KIA, later joining the CPB in 1968 before breaking away in 1989. In 2009, it became part of the official government-run militia program and rebranded itself as the Kachin Border Guard Force (DVB, November 21, 2024). By doing so, it became integrated with the official military command structure, received government salaries, and enjoyed autonomy in the territory it controls, called Kachin State Special Region 1 (The Irrawaddy, December 9: BNI, November 2, 2024). The group is manned mainly by three battalions consisting of around 1,000 men and has been led by Zahkung Ting Ying, a former member of parliament. He has profited significantly from REE revenues in NDA-K-controlled territories (BNI, November 2, 2024; Frontier Myanmar, August 15).
NDA-K has maintained a pro-Tatmadaw and anti-KIA stance following the 2021 military coup. During the October 2024 KIA offensive, NDA-K lost control of Chipwi and Pangwa Townships, where it operated over 100 REE mines close to the Myanmar-PRC border (The Irrawaddy, November 18, 2024; RFA, October 15, 2024). These mines had been leased by NDA-K to PRC-based companies in exchange for revenues (The Irrawaddy, July 15, 2023). Currently, KIA has taken over this leasing mechanism and has reached an understanding in REE trading with the PRC (The Irrawaddy, November 29, 2024; Frontier Myanmar, August 1; ISP Myanmar, September 26).
Conclusion
Armed groups govern Myanmar's resource-rich peripheries as a result of the country's fractured sovereignty (PRIO, December 1, 2021; ACLED, November 26, 2024). The PRC has developed strong ties with most of these groups, alongside a warm relationship with the Tatmadaw (9DASHLINE, April 22). Factors like the growing global demand for REEs and increased U.S.-PRC competition are now driving the United States and India to rethink their engagement with Myanmar. The Tatmadaw, however, has been pragmatic in maintaining some semblance of control over REE supplies within its borders, which it uses to help secure international relationships. The cooperation of Burmese militias with opportunistic PRC-based ventures is nothing new, but signals increasingly close ties between the Tatmadaw and the PRC over a crucial international trade issue, as militant groups indirectly mediate the relationship.
* * *
[2] The four ethnic armies are the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and the New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDA-K).
[3] FNPCC consists of seven prominent ethnic armed groups active in Myanmar: the Arakan Army (AA), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the United Wa State Army (UWSA).
[4] Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer in the world as of 2022.
* * *
Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan is a Research Data Analyst (RDA) at the Bangladesh Peace Observatory under the Centre for Alternatives (CA), a Dhaka-based think tank focused on international, national, and societal security and politics.
* * *
Original text here: https://jamestown.org/militias-assist-prc-based-ventures-mining-rare-earth-elements-in-myanmar/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Jamestown Foundation Issues Commentary to Eurasia Daily Monitor: Abkakhzia Expels Russian Political Technologists
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025, in its Eurasia Daily Monitor:* * *
Abkakhzia Expels Russian Political Technologists
By Giorgi Menabde
Executive Summary:
* Abkhaz officials expelled Russian political technologists, following confrontations with opposition figures who accused the specialists of election interference during Abkhazia's November 8 local elections.
* Several issues remain between Sokhumi and Moscow, and the Abkhaz elite are not willing to meet all the Kremlin's demands despite the breakaway region's overwhelming economic ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 -- The Jamestown Foundation posted the following commentary on Dec. 4, 2025, in its Eurasia Daily Monitor: * * * Abkakhzia Expels Russian Political Technologists By Giorgi Menabde Executive Summary: * Abkhaz officials expelled Russian political technologists, following confrontations with opposition figures who accused the specialists of election interference during Abkhazia's November 8 local elections. * Several issues remain between Sokhumi and Moscow, and the Abkhaz elite are not willing to meet all the Kremlin's demands despite the breakaway region's overwhelming economicdependence on Russia.
* Moscow tolerates such defiance because Abkhazia maintains loyalty regarding Russia's war against Ukraine and its anti-Western geopolitical stance, which Russia prioritizes over internal administrative disputes.
On November 8, local elections were held in Abkhazia--a breakaway republic in Georgia occupied by Russia (Apsnypress, November 8). According to Abkhaz sources, candidates supported by the authorities won the local elections, receiving 76 percent of the vote. Only 30 percent of eligible voters in Abkhazia, however, participated in the polls (OC-media, November 11). Scandals marred these local elections. Neither the low turnout nor the victory of pro-government candidates in most districts turned out to be the main event. The most notable development was the discovery of the so-called Russian political technologists in Abkhazia and their subsequent expulsion (Kavkaz-uzel, November 7).
Several Russian political technologists who had previously worked in the Russia-occupied Ukrainian territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea arrived in Abkhazia at the invitation of the pro-government organization "Abkhazian Team" to assist Abkhaz President Badra Gunba and his team during the elections. According to Abkhaz sources, the arrival of the Russian political technologists had been coordinated by Abkhaz officials and Russian First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko, who oversees Georgia's occupied territories--Abkhazia and South Ossetia--within the Kremlin administration.
On November 5, just a few days before the elections, Abkhaz opposition figure Kan Kvarchia arrived at the office of the Russian political technologists--located in the center of the Abkhaz capital Sokhumi--accompanied by his supporters and journalists (Ekhokavkaza, November 19). Kvarchia asked the Russian political technologists by what right they were interfering in Abkhazia's "internal affairs" and whether they had an official permit to work in Abkhazia. One of the Russians, Ivan Repa, replied that they had no such authorization from Abkhaz officials and could not even imagine needing any permit to operate in Abkhazia (Abkhazeti, November 5). Repa later admitted that he is originally from Crimea and previously worked in the part of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia oblast occupied by the Russian army (Instagram/@chp_abkhazia_offical, November 6). Kvarchia and his supporters brutally beat the Russian political technologists "for interfering in Abkhazia's internal affairs" (Sotaproject, November 5). Repa stated that he was struck in the face several times and even threatened with death. During the violence, the Russians confessed that they were not only assisting the Abkhaz ruling officials, but had also hired several individuals to remove pro-opposition election campaign materials from the streets of Sokhumi (Instagram/@novosti_abkhazia, November 6).
The Russians said that Abkhaz representatives from the ruling party would arrive on site shortly to protect them. Officers from the Abkhaz Security Service appeared at the scene. They did not detain a single perpetrator. Instead, the Russian political technologists were taken away and expelled from Abkhazia (Sovanews, November 9).
Later, Giorgi Gabunia, the founder of the "Abkhazian Team," stated that, contrary to their claims, officials in Abkhazia never invited the Russian political technologists, and he had not heard anything about their work in Sokhumi (Geabconflict, November 28). All opposition organizations operating in Abkhazia condemned the invitation of the Russian officers and accused the ruling officials of trying, through Gunba's administration, to divide Abkhazians into pro-Russians and anti-Russians.
Kvarchia is well known in Moscow, and the Kremlin has long considered him an "anti-Russian" figure. In February, the Russian government revoked Kvarchia's citizenship, stating that he "was contributing to destabilization in Abkhazia, and creating tension near Russia's borders" (Jam-News, January 23; Ekho Kavkaza, February 18). The real reason for revoking his citizenship was Kvarchia's active involvement in Abkhazia when then-President Aslan Bzhania was forced to flee Sokhumi and a new presidential election was organized with Moscow's active participation. Gunba, backed by Moscow, won this election (BBC, November 18, 2024).
At the same time, no one considers Kvarchia a pro-Georgian actor. He participated in the 1992-1993 war, and his rhetoric toward Georgia has consistently been hostile. The incident involving the political technologists--especially, the Abkhaz officials' inability to protect them from violence--once again confirms that there are several unresolved issues between Sokhumi and Moscow, and that the Abkhaz elite are not willing to meet all of the Kremlin's demands.
Both the Abkhaz opposition and the ruling party have shown a willingness to reject some of Moscow's demands. Last year, Russia even cut off electricity supplies to Abkhazia after the so-called "apartments" project--effectively a Russian settlements construction plan--was finally canceled by Abkhazia, despite Moscow's lobbying efforts (RBC, December 18, 2024). Furthermore, neither the previous nor the current Abkhaz government has agreed to Moscow's demand to allow the free buying and selling of apartments in Abkhazia, which would enable Russians to purchase them, thereby raising prices and altering the demographic situation in Abkhazia in their favor (see EDM, February 12).
Moscow has had little success lobbying for large-scale privatizations in Abkhazia, as the Abkhaz elite is firmly opposed to the participation of Russian capital in privatization. Additionally, Abkhazia has not returned the New Athos Monastery, one of the Russian Orthodox Church's holy sites, to the Russian Church (see EDM, November 26, 2024).
Abkhazia is almost entirely dependent on Russia. For example, 99 percent of the tourists visiting Abkhazia are Russians, 95 percent of Abkhaz exports are sold to Russia, and more than half of Abkhazia's state budget is composed of financial transfers from Moscow (Vedomosti, September 6, 2024). Moscow is not going to hurry to use the leverage it has at its disposal, as it has not even reacted to the most recent incident.
Davit Avalishvili, from the independent outlet Nation.ge, believes that a few factors drive Moscow's "tolerance" toward the Abkhazians. Many Abkhazians not only verbally support Russia's aggression against Ukraine, but some are also fighting as volunteers in the Russia-occupied Donbas region, where dozens of them have been killed. "Russia has A-category interests and B-category interests in Abkhazia," Avalishvili stated. He further stipulated, "As long as the Abkhaz authorities and the Abkhaz elite in generally support Russia's aggression in Ukraine, do not attempt to destabilize the situation in the North Caucasus, where people ethnically related to the Abkhazians live, and are not active in the Turkish direction, Moscow will tolerate many things, because apartments, monasteries, and privatizations all fall under B-category interests. In other words, on strategic issues--including anti-Western and anti-Georgian rhetoric-- "the Abkhazians remain loyal to Moscow," Avalishvili concluded (Author's interview, November 13).
The situation unfolding in Abkhazia confirms that many things in the post-Soviet space will depend on the outcome of the war against Ukraine. A Russian defeat in Ukraine could trigger a "domino effect" that would change other regions as well, including Georgia's former autonomous republics.
* * *
Giorgi Menabde is a journalist based in Georgia.
* * *
Original text here: https://jamestown.org/abkakhzia-expels-russian-political-technologists/
[Category: ThinkTank]
Ifo Institute: Business Climate in Germany Stagnated in 2025
MUNICH, Germany, Dec. 5 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on Dec. 4, 2025:* * *
Business Climate in Germany Stagnated in 2025
The business climate in Germany saw hardly any movement over the course of 2025 and remains significantly below the figures in previous years. From January to November, the index only rose by around 2.8 points overall, which is practically tantamount to a standstill. The business situation scarcely changed (minus 0.4 points), while expectations rose slightly over the course of the year (plus 5.9 points). "Companies are taking a sober and concerned view ... Show Full Article MUNICH, Germany, Dec. 5 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on Dec. 4, 2025: * * * Business Climate in Germany Stagnated in 2025 The business climate in Germany saw hardly any movement over the course of 2025 and remains significantly below the figures in previous years. From January to November, the index only rose by around 2.8 points overall, which is practically tantamount to a standstill. The business situation scarcely changed (minus 0.4 points), while expectations rose slightly over the course of the year (plus 5.9 points). "Companies are taking a sober and concerned viewof economic development," says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of ifo Surveys. "We are seeing a stabilization of the business climate driven only by expectations, and the euphoria from the start of the year has already faded again."
The business climate in industry has improved noticeably since the start of the year. Nevertheless, almost all sectors remain in negative territory and are still predominantly pessimistic about the future. Although the business climate among manufacturers of electrical equipment improved significantly over the year by 29.4 points, sentiment still remained subdued, with the indicator reaching minus 2.1 points in November. Sentiment in the chemical industry deteriorated particularly in October and November. Overall, the indicator fell by 8.6 points. Among manufacturers of food and animal feed, the barometer fell by 12.7 points.
Sentiment in trade recovered somewhat but remained at a very low level at the end of the year and was worse overall than in previous years. Construction showed an upward trend over the course of the year, although the sector was emerging from a very low point and had still not made it out of negative territory by November. There was hardly any movement among the service providers surveyed, even though sentiment in warehousing and storage improved significantly by 13.1 points. The hospitality industry is also in a better mood at the end of the year, up 6.8 points compared to January. By contrast, the business climate in publishing fell by 14.9 points. "Overall, it is evident across all sectors of the economy that it would be wrong to speak of a recovery," says Wohlrabe.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2025-12-04/business-climate-germany-stagnated-2025
[Category: ThinkTank]
Consumers Feeling Less Than Jolly, Pulling Back on Holiday Shopping as Prices Rise and Confidence Plummets
WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- Groundwork Collaborative, a think tank and progressive advocacy group, posted the following news release:* * *
Consumers Feeling Less Than Jolly, Pulling Back on Holiday Shopping as Prices Rise and Confidence Plummets
*
This year, Black Friday put many shoppers in the red. The latest data from the biggest shopping day of the year shows that while Americans' spent more in 2025, they went home with less as prices continue to climb due to President Trump's tumultuous economic agenda. Paying more for a smaller gift haul isn't exactly filling consumers ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- Groundwork Collaborative, a think tank and progressive advocacy group, posted the following news release: * * * Consumers Feeling Less Than Jolly, Pulling Back on Holiday Shopping as Prices Rise and Confidence Plummets * This year, Black Friday put many shoppers in the red. The latest data from the biggest shopping day of the year shows that while Americans' spent more in 2025, they went home with less as prices continue to climb due to President Trump's tumultuous economic agenda. Paying more for a smaller gift haul isn't exactly filling consumerswith the holiday spirit: today's University of Michigan Survey of Consumers reveals that consumer sentiment is 28% lower than one year ago, while perceptions of current economic conditions are nearly 33% lower, both approaching historic lows.
These latest numbers come on the heels of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which shows consumers' optimism deteriorated by 6.8 points in November, the steepest drop since April, as families confront higher prices at the grocery store and in the gift aisle. Meanwhile, delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures data for September released today shows that consumer spending stalled while inflation remained sticky, with the PCE Price Index ticking up slightly to 2.8%.
As Trump's reckless tariffs make everyday essentials tough to afford, the added expenses of the holidays means Americans are trimming back their gift lists instead of trimming their trees. Fresh data from Clever Real Estate finds that 72% of Americans expect Trump's tariffs to make 2025 the most expensive holiday season yet, and over half (56%) are cutting back on gifts just to pay the bills. As a result, two-thirds of Americans (68%) say the holidays now feel more financially stressful than joyful.
The labor market is flashing warning signs as well. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports 1.17 million announced job cuts so far this year 54% higher than last year and the highest since the 2020 pandemic with tariffs driving more than 2,000 cuts in November. Small businesses are being hit especially hard: more than 2,200 entrepreneurs and small firms have filed for bankruptcy this year, up 8% from last year, as they are particularly vulnerable to Trump's trade war. The latest ADP report finds small firms shed 120,000 jobs in November alone, continuing a months-long streak of losses.
Groundwork Collaborative's Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez reacted with the following statement:
"As the holidays approach, Trump's economy is in freefall and the warning signs in the data are flashing redder than Rudolph's nose. Across the board, Americans are pulling back on spending, consumer outlook is bleak, and companies are shedding employees as working families and businesses alike brace for more hardship. Most Americans feel more stress than joy about the holidays, and that's thanks to the Grinch in the White House."
This week in the Trump Slump, new polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump's actions are deeply unpopular, hurting the economy, and harming America's workers.
Economic Indicators on Trump's Handling of the Economy:
* Shoppers are growing increasingly frustrated by rising prices. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, the lowest level since April, while consumers' assessments of their own financial situation collapsed to lows not seen in over a year.
* The report also found that consumers are scaling back on big purchases and vacations this holiday season, as Trump's economy is making it more expensive to fill stockings and deck the halls.
* Additionally, today the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading showed a marginal improvement within the margin of error. This remains one of the lowest readings in the survey's history, as consumers know they can't expect relief anytime soon.
* Inflation remains stubbornly high. September's delayed PCE Price Index release showed that prices continue to rise with no relief in sight. The core PCE Price Index has increased 2.8% over the past year, persistently above the Fed's 2% target.
* September's delayed Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that wholesale goods prices climbed 0.9, the largest increase in nearly two years. As the cost pressures on producers persist, consumers can expect more price hikes ahead.
* Rising prices meant Americans came home with fewer items this Black Friday. While U.S. retail sales on Black Friday increased 4.1% compared to last year, according to data released by Mastercard, closer look reveals this is far from good news: sales data reveals a 7% jump in the average selling price and 1% decline in order volume, as well as a 2% drop in units per transaction. In other words, Americans bought less but paid more, boosting companies' sales, without bringing more items home.
* Additionally, wealthy consumers have been driving most of the spending, while low- and middle-income consumers pull back.
* As pre-tariff inventory runs down, Americans are hitting the brakes on spending. U.S. retail trade sales cooled in September's delayed report, showing an increase of only 0.1% from the previous month, versus an increase of 0.5% in August.
* September's delayed Personal Income and Outlays report showed a similar picture, with consumer spending adjusted for changes in prices almost flat. Year-over-year growth in spending has fallen from 3.3% 2.1% since Trump took office. For durable goods, like cars and furniture, it's fallen from 5.6% to 2.1%. In September, consumers also cut back on spending for clothing, footwear and recreational goods and services.
* Layoffs are soaring to historic highs. A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that announced layoff plans this year have reached 1.17 million, 54% higher than last year and the highest since the 2020 pandemic, as tariffs, economic uncertainty and AI advancements are leading to job losses across the country.
* The ADP Employment Report showed the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November, the biggest drop since 2023. ADP has shown declines in four of the last six months, a concerning trend.
* No relief in sight for Main Street as small businesses continue to struggle under Trump's economy. More than 2,200 entrepreneurs and small firms have filed for bankruptcy so far this year, up 8% from last year, as they are particularly vulnerable to Trump's trade war. In contrast, traditional Chapter 11 filings, used by larger businesses and wealthy individuals, rose about 1% to just over 6,000.
* The latest ADP report shows that small firms shed 120,000 jobs, continuing a 4-month string of job losses. Considering that nearly half of private-sector workers are employed by small businesses, this trend raises serious alarm.
* Trump promised a manufacturing comeback, but instead brought a downfall. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% in November, down 0.5 points from October, while 67% of panelists reported that managing headcounts remains the norm rather than hiring, as the sector struggles to stay afloat in the ongoing trade war.
* Manufacturers shed 18,000 jobs in November, according to the latest ADP report.
* Factory orders increased by only 0.2% in September, after a downwardly revised 1.3% increase in August, according to data released delayed this week due to the government shutdown.
* The rise in warehouse stocks was the steepest in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI survey's 18-year history, as manufacturers are making more goods but unable to find buyers, signaling lower production ahead.
Polling:
* Holidays feel more fearful than cheerful. Two-thirds of Americans (68%) say the holidays now feel more financially stressful than joyful, according to new data from Clever Real Estate.
* 72% of Americans expect Trump's tariffs to make 2025 the most expensive holiday season yet, and over half (56%) are cutting back on gifts just to cover basic expenses, while 38% say this is the first year they've worried about affording holiday shopping.
* Consumers plan to spend $550 this year, down from $600, citing inflation (55%) and tariffs (38%) as reasons for cutting back.
* Americans aren't buying what Trump's selling. 60% of Americans say Trump makes prices and inflation sound better than they really are a view shared by even four in ten Republicans, a new CBS news poll found.
* The economy and inflation is the most important issue for voters when judging the Trump administration, and among those who prioritize these issues, 77% say Trump is not spending enough time addressing them.
* Americans say the cost of living has never felt worse. New polling from POLITICO shows that nearly half of Americans (46%) say the cost of living is the worst they can ever remember including 37% of Trump's own 2024 voters.
* Additionally, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index (ECI) fell seven points to -30 in November, the lowest since July 2024, as both Americans' ratings of current economic conditions and their perceptions of economic improvement have worsened.
* Voters say Trump is to blame for rising prices. Groceries are the number one affordability concern for Americans, and more than half of voters (55%) blame the current administration for the current situation, including 20% of Trump voters, according to polling from POLITICO and Public First. Additionally, 46% of Americans say it's Trump's economy now and that his administration is responsible for rising prices.
* Americans are deeply divided on almost everything but not inflation. In all communities surveyed, inflation or rising prices was listed as the number one issue facing the nation, a new American Communities Project report found. Additionally, in 13 of the 15 communities surveyed across the country, 70% or more of respondents said that inflation or rising prices have worsened in the last 12 months.
* Trump's approval continues to sink to new lows. Trump's job approval has fallen five points to 36%, a new low for his second term, and disapproval has climbed to 60%, according to new data from Gallup.
* Both Republicans' and independents' ratings of Trump have worsened significantly since last month. Republicans' approval has fallen seven points to 84%, while independents' has fallen eight points to 25%.
Expert commentary
* Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said "the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector gets more worrying the more you scratch under the surface [...] Profit margins are meanwhile coming under pressure from a combination of disappointing sales, stiff competition and rising input costs, the latter widely linked to tariffs."
* "At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components, ISM Manufacturing PMI survey respondent)
* "Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don't have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of 'planning' has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington." (Wood Products, ISM Manufacturing PMI survey respondent)
* Rick Newman, who writes The Pinpoint Press, a newsletter on the US economy, said to CNN "The story of the economy right now is it's a bifurcated economy. If you're lucky enough to own stocks and own a home, you're part of the upper slant of that cave, that K-shaped economy... you're going to be comfortable spending a fair amount of money this year." In contrast, Newman mentioned that low and middle income people "are going to be pinching pennies this holiday season."
* Dana M Peterson, the Chief Economist at the Conference Board on November's Consumer Confidence report "All five components of the overall [Consumer Confidence] index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions.... Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings."
* Dr. Nela Richarson, Chief Economist at ADP commented on the latest ADP Employment report: "Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses."
***
Original text here: https://groundworkcollaborative.org/news/consumers-feeling-less-than-jolly-pulling-back-on-holiday-shopping-as-prices-rise-and-confidence-plummets/
Arkansas Supreme Court Strikes Down City's Illegal Trash Monopoly
PHOENIX, Arizona, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- The Goldwater Institute posted the following news:* * *
Arkansas Supreme Court Strikes Down City's Illegal Trash Monopoly
*
In an important victory for the right to earn a living, the Arkansas Supreme Court has ruled in favor of Goldwater Institute client Steven Hedrick, striking down efforts by the city of Holiday Island to bar him from running his dumpster business.
Steven started his company to serve his rural Northwest Arkansas communityrenting dumpsters to customers and picking up the trash when they're done. However, leaders in Holiday ... Show Full Article PHOENIX, Arizona, Dec. 5 [Category: ThinkTank] -- The Goldwater Institute posted the following news: * * * Arkansas Supreme Court Strikes Down City's Illegal Trash Monopoly * In an important victory for the right to earn a living, the Arkansas Supreme Court has ruled in favor of Goldwater Institute client Steven Hedrick, striking down efforts by the city of Holiday Island to bar him from running his dumpster business. Steven started his company to serve his rural Northwest Arkansas communityrenting dumpsters to customers and picking up the trash when they're done. However, leaders in HolidayIsland banned his business, declaring that because they had made a contract with another trash-hauler to operate weekly household trash pickup, his business was prohibitedeven though Steven's company doesn't even offer weekly trash-hauling, and wouldn't compete with the other company.
The Goldwater Institute filed a lawsuit on Steven's behalf to challenge the city's prohibition on the grounds that it violates the Arkansas Constitution, which explicitly prohibits the government from granting monopolies.
In their ruling on Thursday, the justices held that the state law under which the city operates doesn't allow it to exclude alternative businesses like Steven's. "Nothing in that provision says that where, like here, a municipality opts to contract with a single provider, it can also bar city residents from using other providers to collect solid waste," the court wrote. And because the statute doesn't even allow the city to ban Steven's business, it wasn't even necessary for the justices to decide whether the statute is unconstitutional. The court found that there was "a significant difference between the ability to contract with a single partyand only that partyand the power to bar all others from offering the services."
The case is just the latest in a series of lawsuits in state and federal courts vindicating the right to earn a livinga right that U.S. Supreme Court Justice William Douglas once called "the most precious liberty that man possesses."
Over the past 20 years, courts have become increasingly concerned about government's use of licensing laws and other regulations to protect existing businesses against competition, rather than to protect the public against harm. Fortunately, many states have clauses in their constitutions thatlike Arkansas' anti-monopoly clausepreserve economic freedom against unreasonable government interference.
The Arkansas Supreme Court has previously held that monopolies, which crush competition, raise prices for consumers, and deny hard-working Arkansans their right to freely practice their chosen profession, are unjustifiable restrictions on individual freedom. The prohibition on monopolies is so important, in fact, that the court has said "no amount of judicial interpretation should ever be permitted to cause the slightest deviation from the clear language of the constitutional inhibition."
We're grateful for AFN member Whitfield Hyman for his help on this case, and to our sister liberty organizations, the Institute for Justice and Pacific Legal Foundation, for helping support Steven's cause by filing "friend of the court briefs" before the Arkansas Supreme Court. You can read those briefs here and read the court's ruling here.
***
Original text here: https://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/arkansas-supreme-court-strikes-down-citys-illegal-trash-monopoly/