Think Tanks
Here's a look at documents from think tanks
Featured Stories
Ifo President Fuest Warns Against Premature Intervention in Fuel Prices
MUNICH, Germany, March 12 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on March 11, 2026:
* * *
ifo President Fuest Warns Against Premature Intervention in Fuel Prices
ifo President Clemens Fuest warns against government intervention to lower oil and gas prices for consumers. "Eliminating price signals via discounts or tax cuts is harmful to the economy," he says. Fuest also points out that the burden of higher global market prices must be borne jointly by the German economy, and that relief in one area would have to be offset by additional burdens elsewhere.
For the global economy,
... Show Full Article
MUNICH, Germany, March 12 -- ifo Institute issued the following news release on March 11, 2026:
* * *
ifo President Fuest Warns Against Premature Intervention in Fuel Prices
ifo President Clemens Fuest warns against government intervention to lower oil and gas prices for consumers. "Eliminating price signals via discounts or tax cuts is harmful to the economy," he says. Fuest also points out that the burden of higher global market prices must be borne jointly by the German economy, and that relief in one area would have to be offset by additional burdens elsewhere.
For the global economy,a higher oil price acts like an additional tax: Energy, transport, and many goods become more expensive, which increases inflation and can dampen growth. Germany is also unable to influence global market prices for oil or gas. It could only influence the price that consumers in Germany pay for oil and gas, as these prices include domestic taxes.
The German government could, for example, reduce the mineral oil tax or VAT on oil and gas. However, that does not lead to a reduction in the economic costs of these fuels. If taxes were reduced here, they would either have to be financed through other taxes or through reduced state benefits.
When oil and gas are scarce and hence temporarily more expensive, this is an important price signal for consumers to curb their consumption if they can. One of the great strengths of the market economy is that price changes create incentives to adjust purchasing behavior.
Those who consume the most fossil energy and cannot avoid it are the hardest hit by the price increases. That can be a painful burden, especially for poorer people. However, general reductions in energy taxes are not a targeted tool for helping those in need.
Calling on the state for every burden makes us forget that our economy cannot function in the long term without a certain degree of personal responsibility.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2026-03-11/ifo-president-fuest-warns-against-premature-intervention-fuel-prices
[Category: ThinkTank]
Center for American Progress: Prediction Market Bets Ahead of U.S. Military Actions Should Raise Corruption Alarm Bells in Congress
WASHINGTON, March 12 (TNSrep) -- The Center for American Progress issued the following news release on March 11, 2026:
* * *
Prediction Market Bets Ahead of U.S. Military Actions Should Raise Corruption Alarm Bells in Congress
A series of suspicious prediction market wagers created by anonymous accounts were placed shortly before military strikes and covert operations under the Trump administration. A new analysis (https://www.americanprogress.org/article/congress-must-stop-prediction-market-corruption/) from the Center for American Progress warns that Congress must move quickly to stop the
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, March 12 (TNSrep) -- The Center for American Progress issued the following news release on March 11, 2026:
* * *
Prediction Market Bets Ahead of U.S. Military Actions Should Raise Corruption Alarm Bells in Congress
A series of suspicious prediction market wagers created by anonymous accounts were placed shortly before military strikes and covert operations under the Trump administration. A new analysis (https://www.americanprogress.org/article/congress-must-stop-prediction-market-corruption/) from the Center for American Progress warns that Congress must move quickly to stop themisuse of prediction markets by government insiders and others with access to privileged information.
"The timing and precision of these bets raises troubling questions about whether individuals with advanced knowledge of government actions are exploiting prediction markets for personal gain," said Alexandra Thornton, senior director of financial regulation at the Center for American Progress and author of the analysis. "Congress must act quickly to ensure that sensitive government information cannot be turned into private profit."
CAP's analysis highlights:
* Suspicious betting activity is happening ahead of military action. In the months before U.S. military strikes against Iran on February 28, hundreds of millions of dollars were wagered on prediction markets regarding the timing of the attack. Six newly created Polymarket accounts alone earned roughly $1.2 million after placing bets funded only hours before the strikes occurred.
* Anonymous accounts are profiting from geopolitical events. Shortly before the United States removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power in early January, a newly created anonymous account placed a $30,000 bet predicting his ouster and earned a profit of more than $436,000.
* Cryptocurrency is allowing for anonymous betting. Some prediction market platforms allow wagers to be placed using cryptocurrency, making it easier for insiders to conceal their identities. Blockchain analysis indicates that wallets used to place some of the Iran-related bets were created within 24 hours of the attacks.
* Weak regulatory oversight leaves prediction markets vulnerable. Prediction markets operate in a murky regulatory space. While federal agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have asserted jurisdiction, enforcement has been limited and current insider trading laws may not clearly apply.
The analysis urges Congress to immediately clarify that using inside government information to place bets on prediction markets is illegal. It also recommends requiring prediction market platforms to collect and verify basic identifying information from users, even when wagers are placed using cryptocurrency.
Read the analysis: "Congress Must Stop Prediction Market Corruption" (https://www.americanprogress.org/article/congress-must-stop-prediction-market-corruption/) by Alexandra Thornton
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Christian Unkenholz at cunkenholz@americanprogress.org.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release-prediction-market-bets-ahead-of-u-s-military-actions-should-raise-corruption-alarm-bells-in-congress/
[Category: ThinkTank]
AFPI Responds to Critics as Food Companies Commit to Removing Synthetic Dyes
WASHINGTON, March 12 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following statement on March 11, 2026:
* * *
AFPI Responds to Critics as Food Companies Commit to Removing Synthetic Dyes
Today, the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) issued the following statement from Stacey Schieffelin, Chair of America First Women's Initiative:
"Although the FDA has already banned Red Dye No. 3, other synthetic dyes such as Red 40 and Yellow 5 remain widely used in foods marketed to children, from cereals to snacks sold in schools. Mothers in America make about 80 percent of household grocery decisions.
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, March 12 -- The America First Policy Institute issued the following statement on March 11, 2026:
* * *
AFPI Responds to Critics as Food Companies Commit to Removing Synthetic Dyes
Today, the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) issued the following statement from Stacey Schieffelin, Chair of America First Women's Initiative:
"Although the FDA has already banned Red Dye No. 3, other synthetic dyes such as Red 40 and Yellow 5 remain widely used in foods marketed to children, from cereals to snacks sold in schools. Mothers in America make about 80 percent of household grocery decisions.Parents are looking for safer options and more transparency about the food their children are consuming.
That's why the Department of Health and Human Services' initiative under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is giving hope to moms across our Republic. It encourages manufacturers to replace petroleum-based dyes with natural alternatives, marking an important step forward in the fight to Make America Healthy Again.
Some advocacy groups, including Consumer Reports and the Center for Science in the Public Interest, have suggested the administration is not moving quickly enough to address artificial dyes. But the commitments announced by major food companies show that the initiative is already prompting meaningful changes across the industry."
America First Women's Initiative Chair Stacey Schieffelin is available for interview on this topic. Click here to schedule.
Click here for AFPI's one-pager (https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/issues/food-companies-following-trump-administrations-maha-leadership) on companies that have taken the pledge.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/issues/afpi-responds-to-critics-as-food-companies-commit-to-removing-synthetic-dyes
[Category: ThinkTank]
The Buckeye Institute Policy Brief Makes Case for Targeted Preemption Laws
COLUMBUS, Ohio, March 11 [Category: Think Tank] -- The Buckeye Institute, an independent research and educational institution that says its mission is to advance free-market public policy, posted the following news release:
* * *
The Buckeye Institute Policy Brief Makes Case for Targeted Preemption Laws
*
Columbus, OH - As the Ohio Supreme Court prepares to hear Columbus v. Ohio -a case challenging Ohio's preemption power-The Buckeye Institute released its most recent policy brief, Striking a Balance: Local Governance, Individual Rights & Economic Growth, which makes the case for a predictable
... Show Full Article
COLUMBUS, Ohio, March 11 [Category: Think Tank] -- The Buckeye Institute, an independent research and educational institution that says its mission is to advance free-market public policy, posted the following news release:
* * *
The Buckeye Institute Policy Brief Makes Case for Targeted Preemption Laws
*
Columbus, OH - As the Ohio Supreme Court prepares to hear Columbus v. Ohio -a case challenging Ohio's preemption power-The Buckeye Institute released its most recent policy brief, Striking a Balance: Local Governance, Individual Rights & Economic Growth, which makes the case for a predictableand uniform regulatory environment across the state that supports pro-growth activities and respects constitutional rights.
"State preemption is a necessary tool to protect fundamental rights, promote economic opportunity, and ensure regulatory clarity," said Greg R. Lawson, senior research fellow at The Buckeye Institute and the co-author of Striking a Balance. "And Ohio's families, residents, and businesses deserve reasonable, uniform rules to follow as they pursue opportunities, innovation, and success."
In policy areas critical to Ohio's economic growth and constitutional rights, local governments have explored or enacted policies that:
* Restrict Energy Exploration and Infrastructure, which risks disrupting regional markets and the broader state economy.
* Restrict Data Center Development, which jeopardizes billions in private investment and the state's economic growth.
* Infringe on Constitutional Firearm Protection, which violates the U.S. Constitution, creates legal confusion, undermines equal protection, and erodes public confidence in the rule of law.
* Ban Short-Term Rentals, which infringe on private property rights, restrict income opportunities and fiscal flexibility for families, and reduce tourism spending that supports smaller communities.
* Ban Tobacco Sales, which reduces and impedes state tax collection and harms small businesses.
As The Buckeye Institute argued in its recent amicus brief in Columbus v. Ohio, Ohio's Home Rule Amendment leaves the state supreme in matters of general concern and subjects local municipalities to the plenary power of the state. In these and other areas of general concern, Ohio's General Assembly can and should strategically tailor laws that preempt or supersede local actions.
***
Original text here: https://www.buckeyeinstitute.org/research/detail/the-buckeye-institute-policy-brief-makes-case-for-targeted-preemption-laws
Inflation increases in February, predates new soaring energy prices: CEI analysis
WASHINGTON, March 11 [Category: ThinkTank] -- The Competitive Enterprise Institute posted the following news release:
* * *
Inflation increases in February, predates new soaring energy prices: CEI analysis
*
The Consumer Price Index report for February shows a 0.3 percent increase across all sectors. The increase predates the escalation in the Middle East, which has caused energy prices to skyrocket.
CEI research fellow Steve Swedberg :
"This month's CPI report largely reflects economic conditions prior to the recent escalation in the Middle East pushing energy prices higher. Since the
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, March 11 [Category: ThinkTank] -- The Competitive Enterprise Institute posted the following news release:
* * *
Inflation increases in February, predates new soaring energy prices: CEI analysis
*
The Consumer Price Index report for February shows a 0.3 percent increase across all sectors. The increase predates the escalation in the Middle East, which has caused energy prices to skyrocket.
CEI research fellow Steve Swedberg :
"This month's CPI report largely reflects economic conditions prior to the recent escalation in the Middle East pushing energy prices higher. Since theCPI data are collected in advance of publication, much of the recent movement in oil and gasoline prices has likely fallen outside the data used for this month's report. While policymakers often emphasize core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their short-term volatility, those categories still play a major role in household finances.
"Energy accounts for 6.3 percent of the CPI basket, but its effect on household budgets and the broader economy is much larger. Higher fuel costs raise transportation and production expenses across the economy. These price increases often ripple through supply chains and consumer prices over time. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the upward pressure on energy prices. Even if today's CPI data seem relatively stable, rising energy costs could still reduce household purchasing power and weigh on affordability in the months ahead."
CEI senior economist Ryan Young :
"While energy prices in February rose twice as fast as the overall CPI, President Trump's Iran war had nothing to do with it. His strikes began on the last day of February, so the current gasoline price spikes will not show up until March's data is released next month.
"Leaving energy aside, core CPI inflation is still above target at 2.5 percent over the last year and has remained above target for five years now. This would usually encourage Fed officials to raise interest rates and bring inflation down, but job losses in February and slower overall growth over the last year make that a risky proposition. Look for the Fed to hold rates steady at next week's interest rate meeting."
***
Original text here: https://cei.org/news_releases/inflation-increases-in-february-predates-new-soaring-energy-prices-cei-analysis/
ICTD Early-Career Researchers Submit PhD Advancing Tax Research in Low-Income Countries
BRIGHTON, England, March 11 -- The International Centre for Tax and Development, an independent research centre that says it focuses on improving tax policy and administration in lower-income countries, issued the following news on March 10, 2026:
* * *
ICTD early-career researchers submit PhDs, advancing tax research in low-income countries
The International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) is proud to announce that two of its early-career researchers, Adrienne Lees and Sripriya Srivatsa, have successfully submitted their PhD theses. Their achievements reflect not only years of dedication
... Show Full Article
BRIGHTON, England, March 11 -- The International Centre for Tax and Development, an independent research centre that says it focuses on improving tax policy and administration in lower-income countries, issued the following news on March 10, 2026:
* * *
ICTD early-career researchers submit PhDs, advancing tax research in low-income countries
The International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) is proud to announce that two of its early-career researchers, Adrienne Lees and Sripriya Srivatsa, have successfully submitted their PhD theses. Their achievements reflect not only years of dedicationand rigorous scholarship, but also ICTD's ongoing commitment to supporting the next generation of researchers working on taxation from low- and lower-middle-income countries.
Giulia Masagni, ICTD's Managing Director, who has worked closely with both Adrienne and Sripriya as a mentor and PhD supervisor, highlights the significance of their achievements:
"Watching Adrienne and Priya grow from dedicated researchers into experts in their own right has been a privilege. Their work is a testament to why we invest in early career researchers: when we support brilliant people from and working in low-income contexts, we don't just gain new evidence; we also support diverse voices who will help shape more equitable and effective tax systems for the future."
Both Adrienne and Sripriya combined their doctoral research with active roles at ICTD, contributing to live research programmes while developing independent academic work rooted in real policy challenges. Their journeys highlight the value of sustained mentorship, collaborative research, and long-term investment in research capacity.
Sripriya Srivatsa: Inclusive tax systems at the margins in Eswatini, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Zambia
Sripriya Srivatsa, a policy economist from India, was an ODI Fellow at the Ministry of Finance in Sierra Leone, where she studied how household care responsibilities affect participation in the labour market. This experience sparked her interest in the fiscal experiences of those at the margins, leading her to use her doctoral studies to investigate the relationship between tax systems and these communities.
Her thesis titled "Pushing the Envelope: Inclusive Tax Systems at the Margins," explored how taxation acts as a political encounter for marginalised groups, specifically women entrepreneurs and residents of informal settlements and customary land. Supported by an ICTD/LoGRI PhD Studentship, Sripriya's research took her across six African countries -- Eswatini, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Zambia.
Her research revealed that while men and women appear to show similar levels of compliance, women often have to navigate the system under significant constraints, including patriarchal norms and limited access to information. This directly challenges the idea of a uniform tax experience. Furthermore, she found that in informal and customary areas, simple light-touch interventions are ineffective at changing tax attitudes. Property tax reform becomes politically feasible only when the state enters into substantive negotiations with traditional leaders through clear revenue-sharing agreements and formally negotiated roles.
Reflecting on these findings, Sripriya notes: "I hope that this thesis contributes to the literature while making a broader argument: that tax systems which overlook gendered constraints and institutional fragmentation are not only inequitable, but also fiscally self-defeating."
Previously ICTD's focal point on gender and tax, Sripriya now works for the International Growth Centre's 'Cities that Work' initiative, where she continues to apply her expertise to municipal finance and gender issues.
Watch Sripriya's interview on the importance of mainstreaming gender in public policy: (https://youtu.be/GzC8OdK4Eqk)
Adrienne Lees: Tackling tax compliance challenges in Uganda
Adrienne Lees, an economist from South Africa, first joined ICTD as a Research Officer in 2020, having previously worked as an ODI Fellow in the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in Uganda. She began her ICTD-funded PhD in 2021, focusing her doctoral research on the tax compliance challenges facing Uganda.
Her work provides critical evidence on the compliance costs for small and medium-sized firms which she found can often exceed the actual tax liabilities for smaller businesses. Adrienne's research also evaluated the impact of digitalising the VAT paper trail, finding that while electronic invoicing can curb certain types of evasion, it is not a complete substitute for traditional enforcement capacity.
Adrienne says: "Doing my PhD alongside my work at ICTD meant I was constantly learning, not just about methods, but about how research interacts with policy. The collaborative environment and mentorship pushed me to think carefully about impact, not just outputs."
Having successfully completed her oral examination in January, Adrienne is embarking on a well-deserved sabbatical. After this period, she will return to ICTD to resume her work, including projects in Eswatini and a collaboration with the Bank of Uganda to evaluate the taxation of mobile money.
Watch Adrienne's interview on the cost of tax compliance for Ugandan firms: (https://youtu.be/VOJP-u9pQL4)
ICTD's commitment to nurturing the next generation of researchers from lower-income countries
For ICTD, supporting these researchers is about more than just funding; it is about providing the mentorship and networks necessary to bridge the gap between academia and policy, and investing in the local expertise required to lead sustainable tax research and reform across the global South. A further five PhD candidates from low-income countries are currently completing their own doctoral research at the Centre, looking at issues such as revenue mobilisation and compliance with subnational tax, the role of information and communication technologies in improving tax administration, and citizens' perspectives of the social contract and how this influences their tax morale.
As well as supporting PhD candidates, ICTD also annually delivers a free Research on Tax and Development course and provides free online learning tools through its Learning Portal.
Interested in pursuing PhD studies? Adrienne and Sripriya share their advice in this blog.
Find out more about Adrienne's work on tax compliance in Uganda:
* The Panopticon taxman: How digital surveillance is impacting tax compliance in Uganda
* Uganda's tax system is a drain on small businesses: how to set them free
* Tackling the hidden costs of taxation: Can digitalisation help?
Find out more about Sripriya's work on gender and tax:
* Why Mainstreaming Gender in Public Institutions Matters, and How We did it for Tax
* How to support women through policy: what I learned from feminist economists
* In search of equality: Can taxes be good advocates?
* * *
Original text here: https://www.ictd.ac/news/ictd-early-career-researchers-submit-phds/
[Category: ThinkTank]
CSIS Issues Commentary: Unpacking Iran's Drone Campaign in the Gulf - Early Lessons for Future Drone Warfare
WASHINGTON, March 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary on March 10, 2026, by Kateryna Bondar, fellow with the Wadhwani AI Center:
* * *
Unpacking Iran's Drone Campaign in the Gulf: Early Lessons for Future Drone Warfare
The first week of Iran's retaliation campaign during Operation Epic Fury demonstrates that drones are no longer auxiliary strike systems but central instruments of modern air campaigns. Their ability to generate sustained pressure at relatively low cost allows actors to impose economic, psychological, and operational strain
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, March 11 -- The Center for Strategic and International Studies issued the following commentary on March 10, 2026, by Kateryna Bondar, fellow with the Wadhwani AI Center:
* * *
Unpacking Iran's Drone Campaign in the Gulf: Early Lessons for Future Drone Warfare
The first week of Iran's retaliation campaign during Operation Epic Fury demonstrates that drones are no longer auxiliary strike systems but central instruments of modern air campaigns. Their ability to generate sustained pressure at relatively low cost allows actors to impose economic, psychological, and operational strainon adversaries while preserving higher-end missile assets for select targets. The effectiveness of such campaigns lies not only in the drones themselves but in the broader ecosystem that enables their large-scale employment--production capacity, operational doctrine, targeting architecture, and integration with other strike systems.
The Middle East crisis escalated in early March 2026 after coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes under Operation Epic Fury killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior commanders. Iran responded with a large-scale retaliatory campaign primarily targeting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Despite damage to parts of its command and control structure, Tehran has rapidly generated sustained strikes using a layered architecture combining drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles against military installations, energy infrastructure, and economic centers.
Data from the first week of the campaign (March 1-9) reveals several operational trends, particularly in the use of unmanned systems. Drawing on official reporting from regional ministries of defense and open-source intelligence, this analysis assesses the scale and role of drones in Iran's retaliation strategy and identifies capability gaps that militaries, including the U.S. military, may need to address as these operational models evolve.
Operational Patterns in Iran's Strike Campaign
Drones have constituted the primary tool for sustaining pressure across multiple GCC states in the first week of Iran's retaliation campaign. These drones--primarily Shahed-series one-way attack drones deployed in large saturation waves--have been used less to inflict direct military damage and more to disrupt infrastructure while forcing defenders to expend costly interceptors against low-cost systems.
Geographic Distribution of Drone Strikes Across the Gulf
As shown in Figure 1, Iran's strike campaign has not been evenly distributed across the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) absorbed by far the largest volume of attacks in the dataset: 1,440 detected drones and 261 missiles between March 1 and March 9, or 1,701 total recorded strikes. That means the UAE alone accounts for roughly 62 percent of all recorded strikes in the dataset and nearly 80 percent of all detected drones. In operational terms, this suggests that the UAE has functioned as the campaign's principal target set, likely because of its concentration of commercial hubs, logistics infrastructure, and high-value military and economic assets.
* * *
Figure 1: Geographic Distribution of Iranian Drone Attacks During the First Week of Operation Epic Fury
* * *
Saudi Arabia has faced a similar threat environment, with strikes focusing on energy infrastructure and military facilities supporting U.S. operations. Drone and missile waves have targeted Riyadh, the Al-Kharj region, and the Eastern Province, including repeated attempts to strike Prince Sultan Air Base and the Ras Tanura refinery. This pattern reinforces Iran's longstanding strategy of using attacks on energy assets and coalition operational hubs as leverage within the Gulf security architecture.
Bahrain and Kuwait have experienced some of the highest strike volumes, reflecting both their proximity to Iran and their importance to the U.S. military posture in the region. Bahrain, host of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, intercepted large numbers of drones and missiles during the first week, though parts of the naval headquarters were reportedly hit during the initial barrage. In Kuwait, dense aerial activity has also exposed operational risks: Air defenses mistakenly shot down three U.S. F-15E aircraft after misidentifying them as hostile targets, highlighting the difficulty of maintaining air situational awareness in a saturated drone environment.
Even states attempting diplomatic neutrality have been drawn into the campaign. Qatar, despite mediating between Washington and Tehran, experienced repeated strikes targeting Al Udeid Air Base and nearby civilian aviation infrastructure. At the same time, Iran has extended drone operations into the maritime domain, striking port infrastructure in Oman and targeting commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. These attacks indicate a deliberate effort to pressure global energy and trade flows beyond the immediate battlefield.
Drones as the Primary Strike Asset
Analysis of these strikes shows that the campaign has displayed a clear functional division between drone-heavy and missile-heavy target sets. As shown on Figure 2, drones account for about 66 percent of all recorded strikes in the dataset, confirming that unmanned systems have been the main delivery mechanism of the retaliation campaign.
* * *
Figure 2: Distribution of Total Strike Assets by Country
* * *
However, this aggregated data masks significant variation. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been primarily drone-centric theaters, with drones accounting for about 85 percent of strikes, while Bahrain has also seen heavy use of drones. In contrast, Kuwait and Qatar have been missile-dominated, with missiles making up roughly 93 percent and 68 percent of strikes, respectively. This suggests Iran has tailored strike packages to different targets--using drones for persistent, low-cost pressure and missiles where speed, certainty of effect, or signaling against military facilities is prioritized.
The temporal pattern is also revealing. The campaign opened with a massive wave on March 1--923 strikes (584 drones and 339 missiles)--followed by a sharp drop on March 2 and a steadier rhythm for the rest of the week. From March 2 to March 8, daily strikes stabilized between 190 and 341, suggesting a two-phase campaign: an initial shock wave to saturate defenses and signal escalation, followed by a more sustainable attritional phase designed to maintain pressure over time.
* * *
Figure 3: Daily Iranian Strike Volume During the First Week of Operation Epic Fury
* * *
These data illustrate how Iran is using drones not just as strike assets, but as a campaign management tool. The volume and persistence of drone launches suggest a system optimized for repeated employment across multiple days and multiple theaters. The data points to a model of warfare in which drones are not supplementary to missiles. They are the backbone of the pressure architecture, especially against states where economic disruption, air defense exhaustion, and public alarm can produce strategic effects even without catastrophic physical destruction.
The Technological Composition of Iran's Drone Campaign
Open-source reporting from March 1 to March 9 indicates that Iran's retaliatory air campaign has relied primarily on long-range one-way attack drones, with confirmed employment of multiple Shahed-family variants. The most substantiated evidence comes from a March 3 briefing in which the UAE Ministry of Defense displayed recovered wreckage and explicitly identified Shahed-136, Shahed-107, and Shahed-238 unmanned aircraft systems (UASs).
Reporting also indicates at least one cross-border UAS strike episode outside the Gulf, in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave on March 5, since confirmed by official Azerbaijani government statements. Though the specific UAS model remains under investigation, some outlets attribute this incident to the Arash-2 loitering munition. While some reports suggest a first-time operational use of the Hadid-110 (Dalahu) jet-powered loitering munition, these lack the same level of corroborated, wreckage-based attribution seen in the UAE briefing.
Overall, the campaign reinforces a "cost-imposition" logic, which includes saturating regional defenses with mass one-way attack salvos while accepting high attrition to force interceptor expenditure and impose episodic disruption.
* * *
Figure 4: Iranian Drone Systems Employed in the March 2026 Campaign
* * *
Beyond the systems already described, one particularly interesting case suggests the possible involvement of Russian-produced loitering munitions in Iran's strike campaign. Open-source analysis of drone debris and video footage from the UAE indicates that a Geran-2 drone, a Russian-produced variant derived from the Iranian Shahed-136, may have been used during the March 2026 retaliation.
Serial markings suggest the system originated from the Kupol plant in Izhevsk, rather than Iran's domestic production lines, and incorporated Russian modifications such as the Kometa-M jam-resistant navigation system. The presence of a Russian-manufactured Geran-2 in Iran's operations would suggest that the previously one-directional drone cooperation, where Iran supplied Shahed systems to Russia after 2022, may be evolving into a more reciprocal exchange of loitering munition technologies between the two countries.
Implications for U.S. Military Counter-Drone Strategy and Lessons from Ukraine
This analysis reinforces that countering mass drone attacks cannot rely primarily on traditional air defense missiles. Ukraine's experience shows why. Interceptor drones have become a core layer of air defense because they are cheap enough to use at scale, preserve high-end interceptors for cruise and ballistic missiles, and can be produced in large numbers. Ukrainian officials state that the country produced over 100,000 in 2025 and that the combat success rates of these platforms exceed 60 percent. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence also reported deliveries approaching 950 anti-Shahed interceptors per day in December 2025.
For the U.S. military, the lesson is straightforward--drone defense must begin with a cheap, numerous, drone-against-drone layer rather than with a force structure built around million-dollar missiles.
However, hardware alone does not constitute a real advantage. The decisive factor lies in the broader operational infrastructure that integrates drones into a coherent defensive ecosystem. This ecosystem consists of the following components:
1. Cheap mass-produced drone interceptors: Drone-against-drone warfare is becoming a core element of modern air defense. Ukraine's experience shows that countering large waves of one-way attack drones cannot rely on high-end interceptors alone; it requires systems that can be deployed at scale. Ukrainian forces increasingly use low-cost interceptor drones to counter Shahed-type loitering munitions because they are inexpensive, scalable, and effective over large areas. Unlike traditional interceptors, such as the Patriot missile, which cost around $4 million per shot, interceptor drones used in Ukraine typically cost $2,000 to $4,000, allowing threats to be engaged at a fraction of the cost. The key lesson is that defending against mass drone attacks requires mass on the defensive side as well, meaning the U.S. military must field large numbers of cheap interceptor drones as a first defensive layer.
2. Integration into doctrine and multilayered air defense: Hardware alone does not determine effectiveness. Ukraine's success stems from integrating interceptor drones into a layered defensive architecture alongside traditional air defense systems, electronic warfare, and mobile ground teams. Drones are assigned to intercept low-cost threats, preserving high-end systems such as Patriot interceptors for cruise and ballistic missiles. The U.S. military should similarly incorporate drone interceptors into doctrine, command structures, and operational planning rather than treating them as ad hoc solutions.
3. Trained operators and dedicated counter-drone units: Another key factor is personnel. Ukraine's counter-drone effectiveness depends on large numbers of trained operators organized into specialized units responsible for detecting, tracking, and engaging aerial threats. This requires dedicated training pipelines, standardized tactics, and constant exercises that simulate large-scale drone attacks. For the United States, building a counter-drone force will require not just technology procurement but also training programs and unit structures designed specifically for drone defense missions.
4. Sensor fusion and battle management software: Modern counter-drone operations rely heavily on software that integrates radar, acoustic sensors, optical systems, and other inputs into a single operational picture. Ukrainian systems such as Delta illustrate the importance of sensor fusion and flight management software that allows operators to detect, assign, and prosecute targets quickly. Without such systems, even large numbers of interceptor drones cannot be effectively coordinated. The U.S. military therefore needs advanced sensor fusion and battle management platforms that connect sensors, interceptors, and command nodes.
5. Resilient communications: Drone defense networks must function in environments where GPS is degraded and communications are contested. Ukraine's experience shows the importance of resilient data links, decentralized control, and systems capable of operating even when communications are disrupted. For U.S. forces operating in contested theaters, counter-drone architecture must be designed with redundant communications pathways and degraded-mode capabilities.
6. Onboard AI for detection, engagement, and swarming: AI increasingly enables drones to operate effectively in complex and contested environments. Onboard AI allows interceptor drones to recognize targets, filter sensor data, and navigate despite jamming or degraded navigation signals. It also enables coordinated swarming behavior, allowing multiple drones to share targeting data, distribute tasks, and engage large numbers of incoming threats simultaneously. Rather than pursuing autonomy as an abstract concept, the U.S. military should prioritize AI functions that enhance survivability, targeting accuracy, and operator efficiency while enabling coordinated drone swarms capable of countering mass drone attacks.
7. Continuous iteration and rapid updates: Perhaps the most important lesson from Ukraine is the speed of adaptation. Drone warfare evolves rapidly, with new countermeasures and modifications appearing constantly. Effective counter-drone systems therefore require continuous iteration of hardware, software, tactics, and training. The U.S. military should establish mechanisms that enable rapid updates and operational feedback loops, ensuring that counter-drone capabilities evolve at the same pace as the threats they are designed to defeat.
Conclusion
The first week of Iran's retaliation campaign during Operation Epic Fury shows that drones are no longer auxiliary systems but central instruments of modern air campaigns. Their ability to sustain pressure at relatively low cost allows actors to impose economic, psychological, and operational strain while preserving higher-end missiles for select targets. The effectiveness of such campaigns depends not only on the drones themselves but on the broader ecosystem that enables their use at scale, including production capacity, doctrine, and integration with other strike systems.
For the United States, adapting to this environment requires more than acquiring new hardware. It demands integrating drones and counter-UAS capabilities into doctrine, training, procurement, and operational planning. Building an effective defense against mass drone warfare will require coordinated development of interceptor drones, sensor networks, battle management software, resilient communications, and trained operators capable of operating in increasingly AI-enabled battlespaces.
* * *
Kateryna Bondar is a fellow with the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-irans-drone-campaign-gulf-early-lessons-future-drone-warfare
[Category: ThinkTank]
