Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: 'Does Uncertainty Really Predict Recessions?'
June 04, 2026
June 04, 2026
ST. LOUIS, Missouri, June 4 (TNSLrpt) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis issued the following white paper (No. 2026-010) on May 20, 2026, by Michael Owyang, Laura Jackson, and Brooke Hathhorn entitled "Does Uncertainty Really Predict Recessions?"
Here are excerpts:
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We evaluate the ability of economic uncertainty measures to forecast recessions in real time. We find that including uncertainty increases the predictive power of both in sa . . .
Here are excerpts:
* * *
We evaluate the ability of economic uncertainty measures to forecast recessions in real time. We find that including uncertainty increases the predictive power of both in sa . . .