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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: 'Causal Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations and Spending Plans'
February 17, 2026
CLEVELAND, Ohio, Feb. 17 (TNSLrpt) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland issued the following white paper (No. WP 26-05) on Feb. 11, 2026 by Bernardo Candia, James Mitchell and Damjan Pfajfar entitled "The Causal Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations and Spending Plans."

Here is the abstract:

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We use a large-scale randomized controlled trial to study the causal effects of tariff beliefs on US consumers . . .

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