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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: 'Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?
November 07, 2020
CLEVELAND, Ohio, Nov. 7 -- The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland issued the following working paper (No. 20-34) entitled "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?" by Joseph Haubrich, senior economic and policy advisor​ in the Research Department.

Here are the excerpts:

Does the yield curve have the ability to predict output and recessions? At some times and in certain places, of course! But many details are matters of dispute: When and where does the yield curv . . .

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