Federal Executive Branch
Here's a look at documents from the U.S. Executive Branch
Federal Agencies
Featured Stories
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services: Defendants Sentenced in Visa Fraud and Conspiracy Case
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services issued the following news release:
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Defendants Sentenced in Visa Fraud and Conspiracy Case
Defendants created a sham marriage to gain a US Green Card
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HAGATNA, Guam - U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services provided valuable assistance to an investigation that led to the sentencings of Jung Hoon Song and Bonnie Jo C. Quichocho, who faked marriage as a scheme to fraudulently gain lawful permanent residence in the United States. The U.S. attorney's office made the announcement.
Song, ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services issued the following news release: * * * Defendants Sentenced in Visa Fraud and Conspiracy Case Defendants created a sham marriage to gain a US Green Card - HAGATNA, Guam - U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services provided valuable assistance to an investigation that led to the sentencings of Jung Hoon Song and Bonnie Jo C. Quichocho, who faked marriage as a scheme to fraudulently gain lawful permanent residence in the United States. The U.S. attorney's office made the announcement. Song,49, from the Republic of Korea, was sentenced to one year of probation after pleading guilty to visa fraud. He was ordered to pay a $500 fine and a $100 special assessment fee and report to immigration officials for potential deportation proceedings.
Quichocho, 50, from Guam, was sentenced to serve six months of probation and pay a $500 fine and $100 special assessment fee after pleading guilty to one charge of conspiracy to commit illegal entry by false or misleading representation.
USCIS played a vital role in the investigation, supporting law enforcement and agency partners in their efforts to uncover discrepencies in the defendants' accounts of their marriage.
The defendants' conspiracy spanned January 2008 to May 2022. They married on Dec. 24, 2011, and then filed a Form I 130, Petition for Alien Relative, and a Form G-325A, Biographic Information, with USCIS. Quichocho and Song misrepresented in these documents that they resided together in Guam. The documents were filed for Song to obtain a Permanent Resident Card, also known as a Green Card, that would enable him to live and work in the United States. Based on these petitions, Song obtained conditional permanent resident status on June 7, 2012, along with a Green Card valid for two years.
On May 7, 2014, Quichocho and Song jointly submitted a petition (Form I-751) to remove the conditions on Song's permanent resident status, again falsely representing that they lived together. In fact, the defendants never resided together at any time before or after their marriage. They made the false statements to obtain immigration benefits for Song. The defendants divorced on May 17, 2018.
"USCIS will relentlessly pursue marriage fraud to protect the lawful immigration process," stated USCIS spokesman Zach Kahler. "This outcome highlights a great partnership within federal law enforcement and our commitment to ensure that immigration benefits aren't given to those who commit fraud against the United States."
Assistant U.S. Attorney Rosetta L. San Nicholas prosecuted the case in the District of Guam. The case was investigated by Homeland Security Investigations - Guam and USCIS' Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate.
To report suspected immigration benefit fraud or abuse to USCIS, please use the USCIS Tip Form (https://www.uscis.gov/report-fraud/uscis-tip-form).
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Original text here: https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/defendants-sentenced-in-visa-fraud-and-conspiracy-case
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Defendants Sentenced in Visa Fraud and Conspiracy Case
Defendants created a sham marriage to gain a US Green Card
-
HAGATNA, Guam - U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services provided valuable assistance to an investigation that led to the sentencings of Jung Hoon Song and Bonnie Jo C. Quichocho, who faked marriage as a scheme to fraudulently gain lawful permanent residence in the United States. The U.S. attorney's office made the announcement.
Song, ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services issued the following news release: * * * Defendants Sentenced in Visa Fraud and Conspiracy Case Defendants created a sham marriage to gain a US Green Card - HAGATNA, Guam - U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services provided valuable assistance to an investigation that led to the sentencings of Jung Hoon Song and Bonnie Jo C. Quichocho, who faked marriage as a scheme to fraudulently gain lawful permanent residence in the United States. The U.S. attorney's office made the announcement. Song,49, from the Republic of Korea, was sentenced to one year of probation after pleading guilty to visa fraud. He was ordered to pay a $500 fine and a $100 special assessment fee and report to immigration officials for potential deportation proceedings.
Quichocho, 50, from Guam, was sentenced to serve six months of probation and pay a $500 fine and $100 special assessment fee after pleading guilty to one charge of conspiracy to commit illegal entry by false or misleading representation.
USCIS played a vital role in the investigation, supporting law enforcement and agency partners in their efforts to uncover discrepencies in the defendants' accounts of their marriage.
The defendants' conspiracy spanned January 2008 to May 2022. They married on Dec. 24, 2011, and then filed a Form I 130, Petition for Alien Relative, and a Form G-325A, Biographic Information, with USCIS. Quichocho and Song misrepresented in these documents that they resided together in Guam. The documents were filed for Song to obtain a Permanent Resident Card, also known as a Green Card, that would enable him to live and work in the United States. Based on these petitions, Song obtained conditional permanent resident status on June 7, 2012, along with a Green Card valid for two years.
On May 7, 2014, Quichocho and Song jointly submitted a petition (Form I-751) to remove the conditions on Song's permanent resident status, again falsely representing that they lived together. In fact, the defendants never resided together at any time before or after their marriage. They made the false statements to obtain immigration benefits for Song. The defendants divorced on May 17, 2018.
"USCIS will relentlessly pursue marriage fraud to protect the lawful immigration process," stated USCIS spokesman Zach Kahler. "This outcome highlights a great partnership within federal law enforcement and our commitment to ensure that immigration benefits aren't given to those who commit fraud against the United States."
Assistant U.S. Attorney Rosetta L. San Nicholas prosecuted the case in the District of Guam. The case was investigated by Homeland Security Investigations - Guam and USCIS' Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate.
To report suspected immigration benefit fraud or abuse to USCIS, please use the USCIS Tip Form (https://www.uscis.gov/report-fraud/uscis-tip-form).
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Original text here: https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/defendants-sentenced-in-visa-fraud-and-conspiracy-case
Reclamation Announces Yakima Basin July Water Supply Forecast
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation issued the following news release:
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Reclamation announces Yakima basin July water supply forecast
YAKIMA, Wash. - The Bureau of Reclamation's July 2026 total water supply available forecast for the Yakima basin indicates the water supply will not fully meet irrigation demands this season. The estimate of the total water supply available for the June-September period indicates senior water rights will receive 100% full entitlements and junior water rights will receive 56% of their full entitlements.
Storage ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation issued the following news release: * * * Reclamation announces Yakima basin July water supply forecast YAKIMA, Wash. - The Bureau of Reclamation's July 2026 total water supply available forecast for the Yakima basin indicates the water supply will not fully meet irrigation demands this season. The estimate of the total water supply available for the June-September period indicates senior water rights will receive 100% full entitlements and junior water rights will receive 56% of their full entitlements. Storagein the Yakima basin reservoirs on July 1 was 80% full with 857,816 acre-feet, which is 90% of average. Precipitation for June was 77% of average and for October-June was 114% of average.
Reclamation manages the water in the five Yakima Project storage reservoirs, along with the basin's unregulated inflows, to fulfill water rights, water contracts and instream flow obligations. Water shortages in the basin are shared equally by the junior water rights, which represent over half of the water rights in the basin.
Reclamation will provide an updated water supply forecast monthly using the latest data each month to reflect changing conditions as they develop for Water Year 2026.
The July forecast is based on flows, precipitation, snowpack, and reservoir storage as of July 1, along with estimates of future precipitation and river flows. Other future weather conditions that determine the timing of the runoff and the demand for water also are critical in determining stream flows, the extent to which the reservoirs fill, and the water supply for irrigation.
For more information, visit Reclamation's website at https://www.usbr.gov/pn/hydromet/yakima/.
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Original text here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5361
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Reclamation announces Yakima basin July water supply forecast
YAKIMA, Wash. - The Bureau of Reclamation's July 2026 total water supply available forecast for the Yakima basin indicates the water supply will not fully meet irrigation demands this season. The estimate of the total water supply available for the June-September period indicates senior water rights will receive 100% full entitlements and junior water rights will receive 56% of their full entitlements.
Storage ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation issued the following news release: * * * Reclamation announces Yakima basin July water supply forecast YAKIMA, Wash. - The Bureau of Reclamation's July 2026 total water supply available forecast for the Yakima basin indicates the water supply will not fully meet irrigation demands this season. The estimate of the total water supply available for the June-September period indicates senior water rights will receive 100% full entitlements and junior water rights will receive 56% of their full entitlements. Storagein the Yakima basin reservoirs on July 1 was 80% full with 857,816 acre-feet, which is 90% of average. Precipitation for June was 77% of average and for October-June was 114% of average.
Reclamation manages the water in the five Yakima Project storage reservoirs, along with the basin's unregulated inflows, to fulfill water rights, water contracts and instream flow obligations. Water shortages in the basin are shared equally by the junior water rights, which represent over half of the water rights in the basin.
Reclamation will provide an updated water supply forecast monthly using the latest data each month to reflect changing conditions as they develop for Water Year 2026.
The July forecast is based on flows, precipitation, snowpack, and reservoir storage as of July 1, along with estimates of future precipitation and river flows. Other future weather conditions that determine the timing of the runoff and the demand for water also are critical in determining stream flows, the extent to which the reservoirs fill, and the water supply for irrigation.
For more information, visit Reclamation's website at https://www.usbr.gov/pn/hydromet/yakima/.
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Original text here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5361
OCC Announces Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued the following news release on July 2, 2026:
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OCC Announces Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) today announced the promotion of Jamie Wilds to Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support (SSAS).
In this role, Mr. Wilds will manage the administration, development, and enhancement of supervisory data, systems, reports and analytics, in support of supervision objectives and the agency's ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued the following news release on July 2, 2026: * * * OCC Announces Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) today announced the promotion of Jamie Wilds to Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support (SSAS). In this role, Mr. Wilds will manage the administration, development, and enhancement of supervisory data, systems, reports and analytics, in support of supervision objectives and the agency'smission.
Mr. Wilds joined the agency in 2007 where he served as a Program Analyst in Large Bank Supervision supporting various enterprise data programs. He then transitioned from serving as a Business Intelligence & Analytics Team Leader to the SSAS Director for Supervision Support. His experience includes leading business transformation, enterprise-wide system development and operations, and advanced analytics and innovation.
Prior to joining the OCC, Mr. Wilds held private sector management and leadership positions supporting the U.S. Department of the Treasury and multiple defense and intelligence agencies.
Mr. Wilds holds a bachelor of science in decision and information systems from the University of Maryland and a master's degree in management information systems.
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Original text here: https://occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2026/nr-occ-2026-55.html
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OCC Announces Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) today announced the promotion of Jamie Wilds to Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support (SSAS).
In this role, Mr. Wilds will manage the administration, development, and enhancement of supervisory data, systems, reports and analytics, in support of supervision objectives and the agency's ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued the following news release on July 2, 2026: * * * OCC Announces Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) today announced the promotion of Jamie Wilds to Deputy Comptroller for Supervision System and Analytical Support (SSAS). In this role, Mr. Wilds will manage the administration, development, and enhancement of supervisory data, systems, reports and analytics, in support of supervision objectives and the agency'smission.
Mr. Wilds joined the agency in 2007 where he served as a Program Analyst in Large Bank Supervision supporting various enterprise data programs. He then transitioned from serving as a Business Intelligence & Analytics Team Leader to the SSAS Director for Supervision Support. His experience includes leading business transformation, enterprise-wide system development and operations, and advanced analytics and innovation.
Prior to joining the OCC, Mr. Wilds held private sector management and leadership positions supporting the U.S. Department of the Treasury and multiple defense and intelligence agencies.
Mr. Wilds holds a bachelor of science in decision and information systems from the University of Maryland and a master's degree in management information systems.
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Original text here: https://occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2026/nr-occ-2026-55.html
NOAA: Reducing Burdens on Domestic Fishing and Increasing Production
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued the following statement on July 2, 2026:
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Reducing Burdens on Domestic Fishing and Increasing Production
NOAA Fisheries Assistant Administrator Eugenio Pineiro Soler announces region-specific actions in support of Executive Order on Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness.
I have served in my role as assistant administrator of NOAA Fisheries for just over a year. In that time, I have prioritized meeting with members and leadership of each regional fishery management council and ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued the following statement on July 2, 2026: * * * Reducing Burdens on Domestic Fishing and Increasing Production NOAA Fisheries Assistant Administrator Eugenio Pineiro Soler announces region-specific actions in support of Executive Order on Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness. I have served in my role as assistant administrator of NOAA Fisheries for just over a year. In that time, I have prioritized meeting with members and leadership of each regional fishery management council andparticipating in as many council meetings as possible. I have done so because I truly believe in our democratic council process and have tremendous respect for the work they do and the expertise they bring to it. I learn something from each meeting I join and each constituent I speak with, but there is a common thread: Fishermen just want to fish, and they are asking for our support in overcoming the barriers preventing them from doing so.
The United States is a global leader in sustainable fisheries management. Our participatory, science-based system under 50 years of the Magnuson-Stevens Act has shown that we know how to rebuild stocks and keep them healthy. But despite this foundation, our seafood sector has faced growing pressure from global competition and evolving market demands. Americans want American seafood, but our landings have decreased since 2019. We need to put U.S. seafood first.
In fisheries, as in life, results are what matter. That is why I am eager to share the regulatory actions we have prioritized in response to the President's Executive Order on Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness. We received input from 787 individuals and organizations, as well as detailed action plans from each of the regional fishery management councils. I believe this volume of input underscores the urgency of our shared mission and I am grateful to everyone who contributed.
After considering all input from councils, fishing industry, and the public, we have prioritized actions--many of which align with Council identified priorities--we believe will reduce burdens on domestic fishing, increase production, stabilize markets, improve access, and enhance economic profitability.
Highlights by Region
New England
* Implement rotational access for the Northern Edge scallop fishery
* Implement Scallop Permit Stacking
* Rescind Industry Funded Monitoring requirements
* Deprioritize advancing requirements for ropeless gear
* Evaluate vessel baseline restrictions (in conjunction with the Mid-Atlantic Council)
* Consider reopening the Great South Channel habitat management area to surfclam operations
Mid-Atlantic
* Evaluate vessel baseline restrictions (in conjunction with the New England Council)
* Consider joint council management for squid, mackerel, and butterfish
* Deprioritize advancing requirements for ropeless gear
South Atlantic
* Revise Snapper Grouper (SG1) permit policies (Amendment 60)
* Support state agency-led exempted fishing permits for red snapper
* Address shark and dolphin depredation
Caribbean
* Shift spiny lobster and queen conch to territorial management
* Revise accountability measures for pelagic stocks and spiny lobster
* Review effectiveness of marine protected areas (e.g., Tourmaline Bank, Abrir La Sierra)
* State-federal regulatory compatibility review
Gulf of America
* Refine Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) participation requirements (Amendments 59A/59B)
* Prioritize rulemaking to extend provisions of the DESCEND Act
Pacific
* Reconsider redundant shoreside catch monitors
* Revise Pacific sardine stock definitions
North Pacific
* Review Steller sea lion closure boundaries
* Eliminate 2 percent IFQ deduction for bled sablefish
* Prioritize rulemaking for small sablefish voluntary release and maximum retainable amount calculations
Western Pacific
* Remove shallow-set longline leatherback hard cap and strike two turtle trip limit
* Remove swordfish retention limit in deep-set longline fishery
* Remove American Samoa longline turtle mitigation measure
Highly Migratory Species
* Review weak hook requirements in the Gulf and retention of dead bluefin tuna less than 73 inches
* Reconsider upgrading restrictions for swordfish handgear limited access permit
Identifying and implementing these actions are critical steps in our efforts to fulfill the President's vision of making the United States the world's dominant seafood leader. I am grateful for our partnership with the councils and for the thorough analysis provided by their members, advisors, and extensive stakeholder engagement. I urge them to further maximize our regulatory efficiency by systematically assessing current Fishery Management Plans, and considering the removal of species that no longer require conservation and management. As stated in the Seafood Executive Order, I strongly encourage the council to collaborate with NOAA Fisheries on the expanded and continued use of Exempted Fishing Permits as an agile management tool to test gear innovations, enhance value-added quality, explore additional fishing opportunities, and safely increase domestic production. In some instances, these priorities may implicate other statutory requirements. Where that applies, NOAA Fisheries will work with the councils to determine how best to advance an action.
Complementing these efforts, NOAA Fisheries is actively evaluating internal actions to support these reforms. As I have said at many of the council meetings I have attended, "I will be back, and I want to come back with good news." These are the types of actions that will keep the industry moving, and that's why I do this job: to make sure we do things better. I look forward to advancing these vital reforms together with our councils and all who want to propel our industry.
Eugenio Pineiro Soler
Assistant Administrator, NOAA Fisheries
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Original text here: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/leadership-message/reducing-burdens-domestic-fishing-and-increasing-production
* * *
Reducing Burdens on Domestic Fishing and Increasing Production
NOAA Fisheries Assistant Administrator Eugenio Pineiro Soler announces region-specific actions in support of Executive Order on Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness.
I have served in my role as assistant administrator of NOAA Fisheries for just over a year. In that time, I have prioritized meeting with members and leadership of each regional fishery management council and ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued the following statement on July 2, 2026: * * * Reducing Burdens on Domestic Fishing and Increasing Production NOAA Fisheries Assistant Administrator Eugenio Pineiro Soler announces region-specific actions in support of Executive Order on Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness. I have served in my role as assistant administrator of NOAA Fisheries for just over a year. In that time, I have prioritized meeting with members and leadership of each regional fishery management council andparticipating in as many council meetings as possible. I have done so because I truly believe in our democratic council process and have tremendous respect for the work they do and the expertise they bring to it. I learn something from each meeting I join and each constituent I speak with, but there is a common thread: Fishermen just want to fish, and they are asking for our support in overcoming the barriers preventing them from doing so.
The United States is a global leader in sustainable fisheries management. Our participatory, science-based system under 50 years of the Magnuson-Stevens Act has shown that we know how to rebuild stocks and keep them healthy. But despite this foundation, our seafood sector has faced growing pressure from global competition and evolving market demands. Americans want American seafood, but our landings have decreased since 2019. We need to put U.S. seafood first.
In fisheries, as in life, results are what matter. That is why I am eager to share the regulatory actions we have prioritized in response to the President's Executive Order on Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness. We received input from 787 individuals and organizations, as well as detailed action plans from each of the regional fishery management councils. I believe this volume of input underscores the urgency of our shared mission and I am grateful to everyone who contributed.
After considering all input from councils, fishing industry, and the public, we have prioritized actions--many of which align with Council identified priorities--we believe will reduce burdens on domestic fishing, increase production, stabilize markets, improve access, and enhance economic profitability.
Highlights by Region
New England
* Implement rotational access for the Northern Edge scallop fishery
* Implement Scallop Permit Stacking
* Rescind Industry Funded Monitoring requirements
* Deprioritize advancing requirements for ropeless gear
* Evaluate vessel baseline restrictions (in conjunction with the Mid-Atlantic Council)
* Consider reopening the Great South Channel habitat management area to surfclam operations
Mid-Atlantic
* Evaluate vessel baseline restrictions (in conjunction with the New England Council)
* Consider joint council management for squid, mackerel, and butterfish
* Deprioritize advancing requirements for ropeless gear
South Atlantic
* Revise Snapper Grouper (SG1) permit policies (Amendment 60)
* Support state agency-led exempted fishing permits for red snapper
* Address shark and dolphin depredation
Caribbean
* Shift spiny lobster and queen conch to territorial management
* Revise accountability measures for pelagic stocks and spiny lobster
* Review effectiveness of marine protected areas (e.g., Tourmaline Bank, Abrir La Sierra)
* State-federal regulatory compatibility review
Gulf of America
* Refine Individual Fishing Quota (IFQ) participation requirements (Amendments 59A/59B)
* Prioritize rulemaking to extend provisions of the DESCEND Act
Pacific
* Reconsider redundant shoreside catch monitors
* Revise Pacific sardine stock definitions
North Pacific
* Review Steller sea lion closure boundaries
* Eliminate 2 percent IFQ deduction for bled sablefish
* Prioritize rulemaking for small sablefish voluntary release and maximum retainable amount calculations
Western Pacific
* Remove shallow-set longline leatherback hard cap and strike two turtle trip limit
* Remove swordfish retention limit in deep-set longline fishery
* Remove American Samoa longline turtle mitigation measure
Highly Migratory Species
* Review weak hook requirements in the Gulf and retention of dead bluefin tuna less than 73 inches
* Reconsider upgrading restrictions for swordfish handgear limited access permit
Identifying and implementing these actions are critical steps in our efforts to fulfill the President's vision of making the United States the world's dominant seafood leader. I am grateful for our partnership with the councils and for the thorough analysis provided by their members, advisors, and extensive stakeholder engagement. I urge them to further maximize our regulatory efficiency by systematically assessing current Fishery Management Plans, and considering the removal of species that no longer require conservation and management. As stated in the Seafood Executive Order, I strongly encourage the council to collaborate with NOAA Fisheries on the expanded and continued use of Exempted Fishing Permits as an agile management tool to test gear innovations, enhance value-added quality, explore additional fishing opportunities, and safely increase domestic production. In some instances, these priorities may implicate other statutory requirements. Where that applies, NOAA Fisheries will work with the councils to determine how best to advance an action.
Complementing these efforts, NOAA Fisheries is actively evaluating internal actions to support these reforms. As I have said at many of the council meetings I have attended, "I will be back, and I want to come back with good news." These are the types of actions that will keep the industry moving, and that's why I do this job: to make sure we do things better. I look forward to advancing these vital reforms together with our councils and all who want to propel our industry.
Eugenio Pineiro Soler
Assistant Administrator, NOAA Fisheries
* * *
Original text here: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/leadership-message/reducing-burdens-domestic-fishing-and-increasing-production
Fed: How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The Federal Reserve issued the following Fed Notes article:
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How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?
By Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto/1
1. Introduction
The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. A common finding in the literature is that changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy have sizable effects on economic activity and financial markets in emerging market economies (EMEs). Previous research has shown ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The Federal Reserve issued the following Fed Notes article: * * * How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle? By Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto/1 1. Introduction The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. A common finding in the literature is that changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy have sizable effects on economic activity and financial markets in emerging market economies (EMEs). Previous research has shownthat the spillovers of U.S. monetary policy to EMEs depend both on the context in which the monetary policy changes are occurring - that is, what shocks are prompting the U.S. policy shift - and the vulnerabilities of the EMEs themselves. (See, for example, Hoek, Kamin, and Yoldas (2022) and Ahmed, Akinci, and Queralto (2024)).
In this note, we analyze one specific aspect these spillovers: how less-vulnerable and more-vulnerable emerging market economies fared through the most recent U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle of 2022-23 relative to the predictions a full-fledged model that is calibrated to capture empirically relevant features of a wide range of EMEs. This tightening cycle has been unprecedented in both magnitude and speed, with a cumulative rise in the federal funds rate not seen in the previous 30 years (Figure 1, left panel). The right panel of the figure shows that market expectations of the federal funds rate path shifted upwards by 4 percentage points between late 2021 and late 2023, with the bulk of the moves occurring in 2022. Given the history of large spillovers to EMEs, it is important to know how resilient these economies have been to this recent aggressive U.S. tightening and the accompanying rise in market expectations of the U.S. policy rate (Figure 1, right panel).
Figure 1. Federal Funds Rate and Its Expectations during 2022-23 U.S. Tightening
We find that the relatively more vulnerable EMEs fared better in both financial market and growth outcomes through the recent U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle than would be expected from our model, while the relatively less vulnerable fared a bit better than the model predictions for financial outcomes but substantially worse for growth outcomes.
2. Overview of the Model
Our baseline framework is a two-country New Keynesian model consisting of a home country (a small EME) and the foreign economy (the United States). Here we present only a brief overview of our model - full details can be found in Ahmed, Akinci, and Queralto (2024).
In addition to standard trade linkages, the model features financial linkages between these two countries: EME financial intermediaries can borrow from the foreign economy (in dollars) as well as from domestic households (in local currency). The model allows for key EME vulnerabilities that have been emphasized in the literature, including deviations from uncovered interest parity and currency mismatches, modeled as in Akinci and Queralto (2023); dollar invoicing of EME exports, as highlighted in Gopinath et al. (2018); and a backward-looking component of EME long-term inflation expectations. The model also includes a set of nominal and real rigidities that help generate empirically realistic effects of monetary policy shocks.
Two of the sources of EME vulnerability play a particularly important role in our analysis. The first is the presence of foreign currency-denominated debt in firms' balance sheets, which lead to adverse financial consequences from domestic currency depreciation that, in principle, can more than offset the positive effects through net exports of such depreciation. The second is the imperfect anchoring of inflation expectations - a property typical of EMEs with histories of high-inflation episodes and earlier absence of inflation targeting frameworks. In the model, we incorporate this feature by postulating that firms rely on past inflation surprises to guide their price setting decisions rather than being entirely forward-looking as in the case of well-anchored long-term inflation expectations. This is a simple way to capture the idea that in some EMEs the central banks' inflation targets may lack full credibility.
3. Two Polar Cases: Fully Growth-Driven vs. Fully Monetary-Driven Tightening
The context in which U.S. monetary tightening is occurring is important in studying its spillover effects. The spillovers are relatively more benign if the U.S. tightening reflects a "growth" shock arising from stronger aggregate demand that raises both growth and inflation than if it represents a "monetary" shock occurring in response to more direct inflation shocks or reflecting a hawkish shift in policy (see, for example, Hoek, Kamin, and Yoldas (2022)). This feature reflects that U.S. aggregate demand shocks would have direct positive spillovers to other countries that would offset some of the adverse effects from higher U.S. interest rates.
Thus, in studying the effects of the recent U.S. tightening, it would be important to know to what extent it was driven by growth shocks versus monetary shocks. For illustrative purposes, we begin with two polar cases: one in which throughout this episode, the U.S. tightening is assumed to be fully growth-driven, and another in which it is assumed to be fully monetary-driven. Specifically, for the growth-driven polar case, we feed into our model innovations to U.S. aggregate demand that replicate the upward movements in market expectations of the federal funds rate depicted in the right panel of Figure 1. Similarly, for the monetary-driven polar case, we search for the sequence of shocks to the monetary policy rule that allows the model to match the same upward movements over time in market expectations of the federal funds rate. We view these polar cases as useful bounds to gauge the range of possible spillover effects.
The blue and red lines in Figure 2 show the predicted effects from the model on the GDP of less vulnerable (left) and more vulnerable (right) EMEs for the polar cases of only growth shocks and only monetary shocks, respectively. (We will return to the green line later.) For the less vulnerable economies, the model sees the 2022 tightening as having only mild adverse effects, even when it is assumed to be entirely monetary driven, and beneficial effects on net if it assumed to be entirely growth driven. But for the more vulnerable EMEs, the model sees the recent tightening as having negative effects on activity even if it were driven entirely by growth shocks, and very adverse effects (a GDP hit of 6 percent) if it were completely monetary driven.
Figure 2. Model-Predicted Effects on EME GDP of 2022-23 U.S. Tightening
These are illustrative polar cases, of course, and it is most likely some combination of growth and monetary shocks that drove the U.S. tightening. Below we discuss one way to identify what that combination might have been.
4. More Realistic Case: Model-Inferred Mix of Growth and Monetary Shocks
We use the model to infer a specific mix of positive growth and adverse monetary shocks driving the U.S. tightening, assuming that these two shocks were the only shocks driving the dynamics of the fed funds rate and U.S. GDP. Here we use the feature that these two shocks would drive U.S. GDP in opposite directions. Using a measure of the shift in market participants' expectations of U.S. growth, along with the shifts in the expected path of the fed funds rate shown earlier, we can infer from the model the specific combination of growth and monetary shocks over time that drove the tightening.
Figure 3 charts the evolution of a survey-based measures of U.S. quarterly real GDP growth expectations of financial analysts, obtained from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators. It shows progressive mark-downs to expected growth through almost all of 2022 that occurred while expectations of the federal funds rate (shown earlier) were being revised up. This suggests that over this period monetary shocks dominated, even though starting in December 2022, growth expectations started to be revised upwards. We can see this more clearly by going back to figure 2; the dashed green line shows the predictions for the effects on GDP of the inferred combination of growth and monetary shocks identified. It shows the predictions to be somewhat closer to those discussed earlier under the assumption that the shocks were only monetary (the red line) than under the assumption that they were only growth shocks (the blue line). All this is consistent with the idea that the evolution of the survey-based expectations of U.S. growth and of the federal funds rate path suggests that the 2022-23 U.S. tightening was driven more by adverse monetary shocks than by positive growth shocks, although both played a role.
Figure 3. U.S. Real GDP Expectations During the 2022-23 U.S. Tightening
5. Predicted vs. Realized Effects on Financial Markets and Real Activity
Next, we turn to the question of how the actual evolution of financial variables and real activity in less and more vulnerable economies over this tightening period compares with the model's predictions for the inferred combination of growth and monetary shocks.
EMEs are divided into less-vulnerable and more-vulnerable groups based on a methodology that computes a cross-country vulnerability index presented in Ahmed, Coulibaly, and Zlate (2017). This vulnerability index summarizes the relative strength of different EMEs macroeconomic fundamentals based on six variables: current balance as a share of GDP, foreign exchange reserves as a share of GDP, short-term external debt as a share of foreign exchange reserves, gross government debt-to-GDP ratio, average annual inflation over the past three years, and a 5 year run-up in bank credit to the private sector-to-GDP ratio. The less vulnerable group comprises countries with a vulnerability index below the median, and the more vulnerable group comprises those with an above-median vulnerability index.
Figure 4 shows the evolution of EME corporate borrowing spreads (top row) and EME nominal exchange rates (bottom row) for less and more vulnerable EMEs (left and right columns, respectively). Using the same convention as earlier, the blue lines show the model's predictions when the U.S. tightening is completely growth-driven while the red lines show the case when it is completely monetary-driven. The dashed green lines show the predictions of the model from the model-inferred combination of growth and monetary shocks. The model-implied paths are constructed by assuming that absent shocks, spreads and exchange rates would have remained constant at their 2021:Q4 levels. The actual data are shown by the solid black lines.
Figure 4. EME Spreads and Exchange Rates, Data and Model Predictions
For the less vulnerable EMEs, the behavior of exchange rates (bottom left panel) was close to the model's predictions of significant depreciations. In these same economies, the level of corporate spreads was lower than suggested by the identified combination of shocks and close to the path implied by assuming growth shocks only. In contrast, the degree of financial stress since early 2022 in the more vulnerable economies was considerably less than the model's prediction under the growth-monetary shock combination and close to what only growth shocks would have implied.
Turning to real activity, the message is roughly the same when looking at the behavior of real GDP levels, depicted in Figure 5. Here the predicted outcomes are generated by assuming that absent shocks GDP paths of EMEs would have followed the path indicated by private sector forecasts as of 2021:Q4, shown by the dashed-dotted lines. Again, as can be seen from the right panel, the more vulnerable EMEs displayed remarkable resilience, with GDP levels considerably higher than the model-implied path from the growth-monetary combination. As seen in the left panel, the less vulnerable EMEs, on the other hand, saw GDP outcomes well below those predicted from the growth-monetary shock combination and very close to those implied by assuming only monetary-driven tightening.
Figure 5. EME Real GDP, Data and Model
All in all, for financial markets, our evidence suggests that both less vulnerable and more vulnerable EMEs fared better overall than our model would suggest, and the more vulnerable economies especially so. For activity, more vulnerable economies did considerably better than the model predicts, while the less vulnerable economies did substantially worse. One possible interpretation of the divergence in outcomes is that developments outside of the United States, such as movements in global commodity prices and China's growth prospects, are also important for EME economic activity and financial conditions and these factors may have affected more-vulnerable and less-vulnerable EMEs in different ways. An alternative interpretation is that the more vulnerable EMEs may have improved their monetary and other policy frameworks in ways that are not showing up, at least not yet, in the variables used in the vulnerability index.
* * *
References
Ahmed Shaghil, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto, "U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: Both policy drivers and vulnerabilities matter," International Finance Discussion Papers 1321r1. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Ahmed, Shaghil, Brahima Coulibaly, and Andrei Zlate, "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?" Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017, 76, 133-152.
Akinci, Ozge and Albert Queralto, "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary spillovers with imperfect financial markets," The Review of Financial Studies, 10 2023, 37 (2), 309-355.
Gopinath, Gita, Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Federico Diez, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and Mikkel Plagborg-Moller, "Dominant Currency Paradigm," NBER Working Paper, 2018, (22943).
Hoek, Jasper, Steve Kamin, and Emre Yoldas, "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?" Journal of International Economics, 2022, 137, 103585
* * *
1. Shaghil Ahmed (shaghil.ahmed@frb.gov) is deputy director in the Federal Reserve Board's Division of International Finance. Ozge Akinci (ozge.akinci@ny.frb.org) is head of International Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Research and Statistics Group. Albert Queralto (albert.queralto@frb.gov) is chief of the Global Modeling Studies Section in the Federal Reserve Board's Division of International Finance. We thank Colleen Lipa for excellent assistance. The analysis and conclusions set forth here are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This note is an expanded version of our recent Liberty Street Economics blog post. Return to text
* * *
Please cite this note as:
Ahmed, Shaghil, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto (2026). "How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 02, 2026, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.4124.
Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board staff offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers and IFDP papers.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/how-resilient-were-emerging-market-economies-through-the-2022-23-u-s-monetary-tightening-cycle-20260702.html
* * *
How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?
By Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto/1
1. Introduction
The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. A common finding in the literature is that changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy have sizable effects on economic activity and financial markets in emerging market economies (EMEs). Previous research has shown ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The Federal Reserve issued the following Fed Notes article: * * * How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle? By Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto/1 1. Introduction The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. A common finding in the literature is that changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy have sizable effects on economic activity and financial markets in emerging market economies (EMEs). Previous research has shownthat the spillovers of U.S. monetary policy to EMEs depend both on the context in which the monetary policy changes are occurring - that is, what shocks are prompting the U.S. policy shift - and the vulnerabilities of the EMEs themselves. (See, for example, Hoek, Kamin, and Yoldas (2022) and Ahmed, Akinci, and Queralto (2024)).
In this note, we analyze one specific aspect these spillovers: how less-vulnerable and more-vulnerable emerging market economies fared through the most recent U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle of 2022-23 relative to the predictions a full-fledged model that is calibrated to capture empirically relevant features of a wide range of EMEs. This tightening cycle has been unprecedented in both magnitude and speed, with a cumulative rise in the federal funds rate not seen in the previous 30 years (Figure 1, left panel). The right panel of the figure shows that market expectations of the federal funds rate path shifted upwards by 4 percentage points between late 2021 and late 2023, with the bulk of the moves occurring in 2022. Given the history of large spillovers to EMEs, it is important to know how resilient these economies have been to this recent aggressive U.S. tightening and the accompanying rise in market expectations of the U.S. policy rate (Figure 1, right panel).
Figure 1. Federal Funds Rate and Its Expectations during 2022-23 U.S. Tightening
We find that the relatively more vulnerable EMEs fared better in both financial market and growth outcomes through the recent U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle than would be expected from our model, while the relatively less vulnerable fared a bit better than the model predictions for financial outcomes but substantially worse for growth outcomes.
2. Overview of the Model
Our baseline framework is a two-country New Keynesian model consisting of a home country (a small EME) and the foreign economy (the United States). Here we present only a brief overview of our model - full details can be found in Ahmed, Akinci, and Queralto (2024).
In addition to standard trade linkages, the model features financial linkages between these two countries: EME financial intermediaries can borrow from the foreign economy (in dollars) as well as from domestic households (in local currency). The model allows for key EME vulnerabilities that have been emphasized in the literature, including deviations from uncovered interest parity and currency mismatches, modeled as in Akinci and Queralto (2023); dollar invoicing of EME exports, as highlighted in Gopinath et al. (2018); and a backward-looking component of EME long-term inflation expectations. The model also includes a set of nominal and real rigidities that help generate empirically realistic effects of monetary policy shocks.
Two of the sources of EME vulnerability play a particularly important role in our analysis. The first is the presence of foreign currency-denominated debt in firms' balance sheets, which lead to adverse financial consequences from domestic currency depreciation that, in principle, can more than offset the positive effects through net exports of such depreciation. The second is the imperfect anchoring of inflation expectations - a property typical of EMEs with histories of high-inflation episodes and earlier absence of inflation targeting frameworks. In the model, we incorporate this feature by postulating that firms rely on past inflation surprises to guide their price setting decisions rather than being entirely forward-looking as in the case of well-anchored long-term inflation expectations. This is a simple way to capture the idea that in some EMEs the central banks' inflation targets may lack full credibility.
3. Two Polar Cases: Fully Growth-Driven vs. Fully Monetary-Driven Tightening
The context in which U.S. monetary tightening is occurring is important in studying its spillover effects. The spillovers are relatively more benign if the U.S. tightening reflects a "growth" shock arising from stronger aggregate demand that raises both growth and inflation than if it represents a "monetary" shock occurring in response to more direct inflation shocks or reflecting a hawkish shift in policy (see, for example, Hoek, Kamin, and Yoldas (2022)). This feature reflects that U.S. aggregate demand shocks would have direct positive spillovers to other countries that would offset some of the adverse effects from higher U.S. interest rates.
Thus, in studying the effects of the recent U.S. tightening, it would be important to know to what extent it was driven by growth shocks versus monetary shocks. For illustrative purposes, we begin with two polar cases: one in which throughout this episode, the U.S. tightening is assumed to be fully growth-driven, and another in which it is assumed to be fully monetary-driven. Specifically, for the growth-driven polar case, we feed into our model innovations to U.S. aggregate demand that replicate the upward movements in market expectations of the federal funds rate depicted in the right panel of Figure 1. Similarly, for the monetary-driven polar case, we search for the sequence of shocks to the monetary policy rule that allows the model to match the same upward movements over time in market expectations of the federal funds rate. We view these polar cases as useful bounds to gauge the range of possible spillover effects.
The blue and red lines in Figure 2 show the predicted effects from the model on the GDP of less vulnerable (left) and more vulnerable (right) EMEs for the polar cases of only growth shocks and only monetary shocks, respectively. (We will return to the green line later.) For the less vulnerable economies, the model sees the 2022 tightening as having only mild adverse effects, even when it is assumed to be entirely monetary driven, and beneficial effects on net if it assumed to be entirely growth driven. But for the more vulnerable EMEs, the model sees the recent tightening as having negative effects on activity even if it were driven entirely by growth shocks, and very adverse effects (a GDP hit of 6 percent) if it were completely monetary driven.
Figure 2. Model-Predicted Effects on EME GDP of 2022-23 U.S. Tightening
These are illustrative polar cases, of course, and it is most likely some combination of growth and monetary shocks that drove the U.S. tightening. Below we discuss one way to identify what that combination might have been.
4. More Realistic Case: Model-Inferred Mix of Growth and Monetary Shocks
We use the model to infer a specific mix of positive growth and adverse monetary shocks driving the U.S. tightening, assuming that these two shocks were the only shocks driving the dynamics of the fed funds rate and U.S. GDP. Here we use the feature that these two shocks would drive U.S. GDP in opposite directions. Using a measure of the shift in market participants' expectations of U.S. growth, along with the shifts in the expected path of the fed funds rate shown earlier, we can infer from the model the specific combination of growth and monetary shocks over time that drove the tightening.
Figure 3 charts the evolution of a survey-based measures of U.S. quarterly real GDP growth expectations of financial analysts, obtained from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators. It shows progressive mark-downs to expected growth through almost all of 2022 that occurred while expectations of the federal funds rate (shown earlier) were being revised up. This suggests that over this period monetary shocks dominated, even though starting in December 2022, growth expectations started to be revised upwards. We can see this more clearly by going back to figure 2; the dashed green line shows the predictions for the effects on GDP of the inferred combination of growth and monetary shocks identified. It shows the predictions to be somewhat closer to those discussed earlier under the assumption that the shocks were only monetary (the red line) than under the assumption that they were only growth shocks (the blue line). All this is consistent with the idea that the evolution of the survey-based expectations of U.S. growth and of the federal funds rate path suggests that the 2022-23 U.S. tightening was driven more by adverse monetary shocks than by positive growth shocks, although both played a role.
Figure 3. U.S. Real GDP Expectations During the 2022-23 U.S. Tightening
5. Predicted vs. Realized Effects on Financial Markets and Real Activity
Next, we turn to the question of how the actual evolution of financial variables and real activity in less and more vulnerable economies over this tightening period compares with the model's predictions for the inferred combination of growth and monetary shocks.
EMEs are divided into less-vulnerable and more-vulnerable groups based on a methodology that computes a cross-country vulnerability index presented in Ahmed, Coulibaly, and Zlate (2017). This vulnerability index summarizes the relative strength of different EMEs macroeconomic fundamentals based on six variables: current balance as a share of GDP, foreign exchange reserves as a share of GDP, short-term external debt as a share of foreign exchange reserves, gross government debt-to-GDP ratio, average annual inflation over the past three years, and a 5 year run-up in bank credit to the private sector-to-GDP ratio. The less vulnerable group comprises countries with a vulnerability index below the median, and the more vulnerable group comprises those with an above-median vulnerability index.
Figure 4 shows the evolution of EME corporate borrowing spreads (top row) and EME nominal exchange rates (bottom row) for less and more vulnerable EMEs (left and right columns, respectively). Using the same convention as earlier, the blue lines show the model's predictions when the U.S. tightening is completely growth-driven while the red lines show the case when it is completely monetary-driven. The dashed green lines show the predictions of the model from the model-inferred combination of growth and monetary shocks. The model-implied paths are constructed by assuming that absent shocks, spreads and exchange rates would have remained constant at their 2021:Q4 levels. The actual data are shown by the solid black lines.
Figure 4. EME Spreads and Exchange Rates, Data and Model Predictions
For the less vulnerable EMEs, the behavior of exchange rates (bottom left panel) was close to the model's predictions of significant depreciations. In these same economies, the level of corporate spreads was lower than suggested by the identified combination of shocks and close to the path implied by assuming growth shocks only. In contrast, the degree of financial stress since early 2022 in the more vulnerable economies was considerably less than the model's prediction under the growth-monetary shock combination and close to what only growth shocks would have implied.
Turning to real activity, the message is roughly the same when looking at the behavior of real GDP levels, depicted in Figure 5. Here the predicted outcomes are generated by assuming that absent shocks GDP paths of EMEs would have followed the path indicated by private sector forecasts as of 2021:Q4, shown by the dashed-dotted lines. Again, as can be seen from the right panel, the more vulnerable EMEs displayed remarkable resilience, with GDP levels considerably higher than the model-implied path from the growth-monetary combination. As seen in the left panel, the less vulnerable EMEs, on the other hand, saw GDP outcomes well below those predicted from the growth-monetary shock combination and very close to those implied by assuming only monetary-driven tightening.
Figure 5. EME Real GDP, Data and Model
All in all, for financial markets, our evidence suggests that both less vulnerable and more vulnerable EMEs fared better overall than our model would suggest, and the more vulnerable economies especially so. For activity, more vulnerable economies did considerably better than the model predicts, while the less vulnerable economies did substantially worse. One possible interpretation of the divergence in outcomes is that developments outside of the United States, such as movements in global commodity prices and China's growth prospects, are also important for EME economic activity and financial conditions and these factors may have affected more-vulnerable and less-vulnerable EMEs in different ways. An alternative interpretation is that the more vulnerable EMEs may have improved their monetary and other policy frameworks in ways that are not showing up, at least not yet, in the variables used in the vulnerability index.
* * *
References
Ahmed Shaghil, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto, "U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: Both policy drivers and vulnerabilities matter," International Finance Discussion Papers 1321r1. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Ahmed, Shaghil, Brahima Coulibaly, and Andrei Zlate, "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?" Journal of International Money and Finance, 2017, 76, 133-152.
Akinci, Ozge and Albert Queralto, "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary spillovers with imperfect financial markets," The Review of Financial Studies, 10 2023, 37 (2), 309-355.
Gopinath, Gita, Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Federico Diez, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and Mikkel Plagborg-Moller, "Dominant Currency Paradigm," NBER Working Paper, 2018, (22943).
Hoek, Jasper, Steve Kamin, and Emre Yoldas, "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?" Journal of International Economics, 2022, 137, 103585
* * *
1. Shaghil Ahmed (shaghil.ahmed@frb.gov) is deputy director in the Federal Reserve Board's Division of International Finance. Ozge Akinci (ozge.akinci@ny.frb.org) is head of International Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Research and Statistics Group. Albert Queralto (albert.queralto@frb.gov) is chief of the Global Modeling Studies Section in the Federal Reserve Board's Division of International Finance. We thank Colleen Lipa for excellent assistance. The analysis and conclusions set forth here are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This note is an expanded version of our recent Liberty Street Economics blog post. Return to text
* * *
Please cite this note as:
Ahmed, Shaghil, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto (2026). "How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022-23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 02, 2026, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.4124.
Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board staff offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers and IFDP papers.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/how-resilient-were-emerging-market-economies-through-the-2022-23-u-s-monetary-tightening-cycle-20260702.html
Energy Dominance Financing Office Celebrates One Year Since Passage of the Working Families Tax Cuts Act
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Energy issued the following news release:
* * *
Energy Dominance Financing Office Celebrates One Year Since Passage of the Working Families Tax Cuts Act
The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) celebrates the one-year anniversary of President Trump's historic Working Families Tax Cuts. Made possible by the Working Families Tax Cuts, EDF has tallied several vital wins to rebuild supply chains, lower household energy bills, and strengthen U.S. energy and industrial leadership.
The Working Families Tax Cuts expanded ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Energy issued the following news release: * * * Energy Dominance Financing Office Celebrates One Year Since Passage of the Working Families Tax Cuts Act The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) celebrates the one-year anniversary of President Trump's historic Working Families Tax Cuts. Made possible by the Working Families Tax Cuts, EDF has tallied several vital wins to rebuild supply chains, lower household energy bills, and strengthen U.S. energy and industrial leadership. The Working Families Tax Cuts expandedthe scope of EDF's more than $250 billion available loan authority to support reliable and affordable energy-related investments through the revamped and renamed Energy Dominance Financing Program (EDFP).
"The prior administration had policies that undermined our grid with intermittent and expensive technologies that didn't deliver the affordable, reliable and secure energy that Americans need," EDF Director Gregory A. Beard said. "The Working Families Tax Cuts empowered the nation with a common-sense approach to increasing the nation's energy supply through ensuring baseload power goes to a secure and reliable grid, securing critical mineral supply chains, winning the global AI race and launching the American nuclear renaissance."
EDF is working to rapidly implement and deploy the EDFP. Over the past year, these accomplishments include:
Financing America's nuclear renaissance
EDF has financed nuclear restarts and reestablished domestic manufacturing capabilities central to the Administration's goal of reinvigorating the U.S. nuclear industrial base. As part of a national nuclear renaissance strategy, EDF recently announced a $17.5 billion conditional loan to finance long-lead time items needed to rebuild America's commercial nuclear supply chain. This investment will accelerate the deployment of 10 large-scale commercial nuclear reactors across the United States by up to three years. The project marks a major step toward advancing President Trump's Executive Order, Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, by supporting the objective of having 10 new large nuclear reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030, representing over 11 GW of secure, reliable generation. EDF is lending $1 billion to Constellation to help finance the Crane nuclear restart, an 835 MW plant located on the Susquehanna River in Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania that will provide reliable and affordable baseload power to the PJM Interconnection region. EDF also continues to support an up to $1.52 billion loan to support the restart of the previously shutdown Palisades nuclear power plant in Covert Township, Michigan. Once complete, the plant will generate 800 MW of affordable and reliable baseload power.
Lending to support a stable, reliable grid
EDF is deploying the Working Families Tax Cuts' strengthened authorities to drive immediate savings for American households. Currently, EDF has deployed $30 billion in loans to utility companies, with over $8 billion in savings being passed through to customers. Utility loans previously considered under the Biden Administration have been modified to remove intermittent energy sources and focus on common-sense baseload generation. This is just the start, with many more billions expected to be delivered in the coming months. Examples of existing loans include a historic $26.5 billion loan package to Southern Company to deliver over $7 billion in electricity cost savings to millions of customers in Georgia and Alabama and build or upgrade over 16 gigawatts (GW) of firm reliable power to the electrical grid. Additional loans include a $1.6 billion loan to American Electric Power to reconductor and rebuild around 5,000 miles of transmission lines across Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, and West Virginia and a $1.6 billion loan to DTE Gas to lower energy prices for Michiganders by modernizing and strengthening approximately 800 miles of distribution mains and service lines while delivering over $700 million in cost savings to millions of customers in Michigan.
Supporting domestic industries
The Working Families Tax Cuts are also helping EDF rebuild U.S. capabilities in strategically vital sectors beyond electricity generation. EDF is particularly focused on critical minerals, materials, and other strategically important resources. As an early example, EDF issued a $1.5 billion loan to Wabash Valley Resources to produce 500,000 metric tons of fertilizer per year from a coal plant in West Terre Haute, Indiana, restoring domestic ammonia production for American agriculture.
Thanks to Working Families Tax Cuts, EDF is delivering a once in a generation surge in energy infrastructure investment that is lowering costs for American families, rebuilding critical domestic supply chains, and accelerating the next American nuclear energy renaissance.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-dominance-financing-office-celebrates-one-year-passage-working-families-tax-cuts
* * *
Energy Dominance Financing Office Celebrates One Year Since Passage of the Working Families Tax Cuts Act
The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) celebrates the one-year anniversary of President Trump's historic Working Families Tax Cuts. Made possible by the Working Families Tax Cuts, EDF has tallied several vital wins to rebuild supply chains, lower household energy bills, and strengthen U.S. energy and industrial leadership.
The Working Families Tax Cuts expanded ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Energy issued the following news release: * * * Energy Dominance Financing Office Celebrates One Year Since Passage of the Working Families Tax Cuts Act The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) celebrates the one-year anniversary of President Trump's historic Working Families Tax Cuts. Made possible by the Working Families Tax Cuts, EDF has tallied several vital wins to rebuild supply chains, lower household energy bills, and strengthen U.S. energy and industrial leadership. The Working Families Tax Cuts expandedthe scope of EDF's more than $250 billion available loan authority to support reliable and affordable energy-related investments through the revamped and renamed Energy Dominance Financing Program (EDFP).
"The prior administration had policies that undermined our grid with intermittent and expensive technologies that didn't deliver the affordable, reliable and secure energy that Americans need," EDF Director Gregory A. Beard said. "The Working Families Tax Cuts empowered the nation with a common-sense approach to increasing the nation's energy supply through ensuring baseload power goes to a secure and reliable grid, securing critical mineral supply chains, winning the global AI race and launching the American nuclear renaissance."
EDF is working to rapidly implement and deploy the EDFP. Over the past year, these accomplishments include:
Financing America's nuclear renaissance
EDF has financed nuclear restarts and reestablished domestic manufacturing capabilities central to the Administration's goal of reinvigorating the U.S. nuclear industrial base. As part of a national nuclear renaissance strategy, EDF recently announced a $17.5 billion conditional loan to finance long-lead time items needed to rebuild America's commercial nuclear supply chain. This investment will accelerate the deployment of 10 large-scale commercial nuclear reactors across the United States by up to three years. The project marks a major step toward advancing President Trump's Executive Order, Reinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial Base, by supporting the objective of having 10 new large nuclear reactors with complete designs under construction by 2030, representing over 11 GW of secure, reliable generation. EDF is lending $1 billion to Constellation to help finance the Crane nuclear restart, an 835 MW plant located on the Susquehanna River in Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania that will provide reliable and affordable baseload power to the PJM Interconnection region. EDF also continues to support an up to $1.52 billion loan to support the restart of the previously shutdown Palisades nuclear power plant in Covert Township, Michigan. Once complete, the plant will generate 800 MW of affordable and reliable baseload power.
Lending to support a stable, reliable grid
EDF is deploying the Working Families Tax Cuts' strengthened authorities to drive immediate savings for American households. Currently, EDF has deployed $30 billion in loans to utility companies, with over $8 billion in savings being passed through to customers. Utility loans previously considered under the Biden Administration have been modified to remove intermittent energy sources and focus on common-sense baseload generation. This is just the start, with many more billions expected to be delivered in the coming months. Examples of existing loans include a historic $26.5 billion loan package to Southern Company to deliver over $7 billion in electricity cost savings to millions of customers in Georgia and Alabama and build or upgrade over 16 gigawatts (GW) of firm reliable power to the electrical grid. Additional loans include a $1.6 billion loan to American Electric Power to reconductor and rebuild around 5,000 miles of transmission lines across Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, and West Virginia and a $1.6 billion loan to DTE Gas to lower energy prices for Michiganders by modernizing and strengthening approximately 800 miles of distribution mains and service lines while delivering over $700 million in cost savings to millions of customers in Michigan.
Supporting domestic industries
The Working Families Tax Cuts are also helping EDF rebuild U.S. capabilities in strategically vital sectors beyond electricity generation. EDF is particularly focused on critical minerals, materials, and other strategically important resources. As an early example, EDF issued a $1.5 billion loan to Wabash Valley Resources to produce 500,000 metric tons of fertilizer per year from a coal plant in West Terre Haute, Indiana, restoring domestic ammonia production for American agriculture.
Thanks to Working Families Tax Cuts, EDF is delivering a once in a generation surge in energy infrastructure investment that is lowering costs for American families, rebuilding critical domestic supply chains, and accelerating the next American nuclear energy renaissance.
* * *
Original text here: https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-dominance-financing-office-celebrates-one-year-passage-working-families-tax-cuts
ATF Reports Major Enforcement Wins Following 2025 Shift in Priorities
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Justice's Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives issued the following news release:
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ATF reports major enforcement wins following 2025 shift in priorities
10K+ arrests, nearly 50K firearms seized from criminals since January 2025
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) has recorded significant results since shifting its enforcement priorities in 2025 to refocus on violent crime, transnational criminal organizations, and illegal pipelines supplying them firearms. Since January 2025, the ATF has focused on dismantling ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Justice's Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives issued the following news release: * * * ATF reports major enforcement wins following 2025 shift in priorities 10K+ arrests, nearly 50K firearms seized from criminals since January 2025 The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) has recorded significant results since shifting its enforcement priorities in 2025 to refocus on violent crime, transnational criminal organizations, and illegal pipelines supplying them firearms. Since January 2025, the ATF has focused on dismantlingcartel and gang networks, arresting in the process over 10,000 offenders and seizing more than 49,000 firearms and roughly 2.9 million rounds of ammunition and 31,000 illegal explosives from them. The results come in part through the Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) effort, where ATF works alongside FBI, DEA, HSI, and hundreds of state and local partners and is currently active in more than 1,200 HSTF investigations. In Fiscal Year 2026 alone, HSTF activity involving ATF resulted in more than 1,300 arrests, 200 indictments, 380 convictions, 3,000 firearms seized, and more than $18 million in cash and monetary assets recovered.
"These results should serve as a warning to violent offenders who seek to break federal firearms law," said ATF Director Rob Cekada. "ATF is aggressively targeting dangerous criminals, shutting down the illegal supply chains that arm cartels and gangs, and ensuring those who violate these laws are held accountable."
In addition to the above, ATF has also handled nearly 950,000 firearm trace requests since January 2025, exceeding the agency's average and showing the growing partnerships with law enforcement who rely on ATF to identify the source of firearms used in crimes. In total, nearly 11,000 law enforcement agencies now receive tracing services from ATF.
In calendar year 2025, ATF saw substantial increases in criminal referrals and charges compared to 2024. Referrals to the Department of Justice rose sharply across the six firearms related statutes, including straw purchasing, which increased 182%; trafficking, which rose 129%; and false statements under 18 U.S.C. 922(a)(6), which increased 135%. Overall, referrals across all six trafficking statutes climbed from 155% year over year. Criminal charges followed a similar trend, with charges across all six trafficking statutes increasing 57% year over year. Roughly a quarter of all ATF-initiated violent crime cases involve investigating firearms trafficking to Mexico.
Application Processing
ATF processed more NFA forms in calendar year 2026 than in all of 2025 and has significantly reduced processing times for key NFA forms since January 2025, including Form 4 (Legal Entities) dropping from 100 days to 25 days, Form 4 (Individual) dropping from 143 days to 8 days, and Form 10 dropping from 57 days to 6 days.
Combating Gangs and Transnational Criminal Organizations
ATF's targeting of violent street gangs and transnational criminal organizations resulted in the arrests of members of multiple FTO-designated groups, including 49 Tren de Aragua members, 21 La Nueva Familia Michoacana members, 22 Sinaloa Cartel members, and 16 alleged Surenos members. Recent cases include:
* Colorado: ATF filed charges in August against 32 alleged Venezuelan TdA members for firearms trafficking, drug distribution, and conspiracy to commit murder for hire.
* New Mexico: ATF announced in December the federal indictment of 11 alleged TdA members on racketeering charges, including allegations of murder, kidnapping, drug trafficking, and illegal firearms possession, with convictions carrying the potential for life imprisonment.
* Illinois: ATF targeted alleged TdA-linked machinegun conversion device trafficking in the Chicago area in December resulting in the indictment of five defendants and the seizure of 73 firearms.
* California: ATF investigated the Puente 13 street gang and its alleged ties to the Mexican Mafia prison gang late last year, resulting in 18 arrests, 78 firearms seized, 15 pounds of methamphetamine, 30,000 fentanyl pills, and body armor.
Firearms Trafficking and Border Security
ATF's firearms trafficking enforcement has focused on interdicting weapons before they reach cartel operatives and TCOs, particularly along the Southern Border. One long-term undercover operation targeting a major Sinaloa Cartel network led in November to the provisional arrest in Mexico of a high-value target linked to a firearms trafficking operation that allegedly sourced $12 to $14 million in high-caliber weapons, grenade launchers, and rocket-propelled grenades for the cartel. Similar cases in Texas, Virginia, and Florida resulted in indictments and seizures tied to firearms trafficking into Mexico and Canada.
Arson, Explosives, and Public Safety
ATF also responded to several major arson and explosives incidents recently, conducting a higher number of investigations during this period than average. In Tennessee, ATF's National Response Team investigated a deadly explosion at an explosives manufacturing facility in McEwen, where an estimated 24,000 to 28,000 pounds of explosives detonated. In California an ATF investigation resulted in the federal indictment of a former Pacific Palisades resident alleged to have started the Palisades Fire, one of the most destructive wildfires in state history. In Illinois, a federal grand jury indicted an individual on terrorism and arson charges following two incidents: the alleged use of an incendiary device to ignite a passenger aboard a Chicago Transit Authority train, and an attempted arson at Chicago City Hall three days earlier.
ATF remains committed to protecting communities by relentlessly targeting the drivers of violent crime and disrupting the criminal networks that threaten public safety. The agency will continue working with its federal, state, local, and international partners to hold offenders accountable and safeguard lawful commerce in firearms and explosives.
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ATF protects American communities from violent crime driven by the illegal use of firearms, explosives, and acts of arson. Through crime gun intelligence, forensic analysis, and relentless investigation, we identify and arrest violent offenders and gang members, dismantle trafficking networks, and sever the supply chains arming cartels, prohibited persons, and terrorist organizations. We defend the rights of law-abiding citizens by safeguarding lawful commerce and upholding the Constitution of the United States. Learn more about what ATF is doing to reduce violent crime in your community by following us on X @ATFHQ, Instagram @ATFHQ, LinkedIn @ATF, and Facebook @HQATF, or on the web at www.atf.gov.
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Original text here: https://www.atf.gov/news/press-releases/atf-reports-major-enforcement-wins-following-2025-shift-priorities
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ATF reports major enforcement wins following 2025 shift in priorities
10K+ arrests, nearly 50K firearms seized from criminals since January 2025
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) has recorded significant results since shifting its enforcement priorities in 2025 to refocus on violent crime, transnational criminal organizations, and illegal pipelines supplying them firearms. Since January 2025, the ATF has focused on dismantling ... Show Full Article WASHINGTON, July 3 -- The U.S. Department of Justice's Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives issued the following news release: * * * ATF reports major enforcement wins following 2025 shift in priorities 10K+ arrests, nearly 50K firearms seized from criminals since January 2025 The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) has recorded significant results since shifting its enforcement priorities in 2025 to refocus on violent crime, transnational criminal organizations, and illegal pipelines supplying them firearms. Since January 2025, the ATF has focused on dismantlingcartel and gang networks, arresting in the process over 10,000 offenders and seizing more than 49,000 firearms and roughly 2.9 million rounds of ammunition and 31,000 illegal explosives from them. The results come in part through the Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) effort, where ATF works alongside FBI, DEA, HSI, and hundreds of state and local partners and is currently active in more than 1,200 HSTF investigations. In Fiscal Year 2026 alone, HSTF activity involving ATF resulted in more than 1,300 arrests, 200 indictments, 380 convictions, 3,000 firearms seized, and more than $18 million in cash and monetary assets recovered.
"These results should serve as a warning to violent offenders who seek to break federal firearms law," said ATF Director Rob Cekada. "ATF is aggressively targeting dangerous criminals, shutting down the illegal supply chains that arm cartels and gangs, and ensuring those who violate these laws are held accountable."
In addition to the above, ATF has also handled nearly 950,000 firearm trace requests since January 2025, exceeding the agency's average and showing the growing partnerships with law enforcement who rely on ATF to identify the source of firearms used in crimes. In total, nearly 11,000 law enforcement agencies now receive tracing services from ATF.
In calendar year 2025, ATF saw substantial increases in criminal referrals and charges compared to 2024. Referrals to the Department of Justice rose sharply across the six firearms related statutes, including straw purchasing, which increased 182%; trafficking, which rose 129%; and false statements under 18 U.S.C. 922(a)(6), which increased 135%. Overall, referrals across all six trafficking statutes climbed from 155% year over year. Criminal charges followed a similar trend, with charges across all six trafficking statutes increasing 57% year over year. Roughly a quarter of all ATF-initiated violent crime cases involve investigating firearms trafficking to Mexico.
Application Processing
ATF processed more NFA forms in calendar year 2026 than in all of 2025 and has significantly reduced processing times for key NFA forms since January 2025, including Form 4 (Legal Entities) dropping from 100 days to 25 days, Form 4 (Individual) dropping from 143 days to 8 days, and Form 10 dropping from 57 days to 6 days.
Combating Gangs and Transnational Criminal Organizations
ATF's targeting of violent street gangs and transnational criminal organizations resulted in the arrests of members of multiple FTO-designated groups, including 49 Tren de Aragua members, 21 La Nueva Familia Michoacana members, 22 Sinaloa Cartel members, and 16 alleged Surenos members. Recent cases include:
* Colorado: ATF filed charges in August against 32 alleged Venezuelan TdA members for firearms trafficking, drug distribution, and conspiracy to commit murder for hire.
* New Mexico: ATF announced in December the federal indictment of 11 alleged TdA members on racketeering charges, including allegations of murder, kidnapping, drug trafficking, and illegal firearms possession, with convictions carrying the potential for life imprisonment.
* Illinois: ATF targeted alleged TdA-linked machinegun conversion device trafficking in the Chicago area in December resulting in the indictment of five defendants and the seizure of 73 firearms.
* California: ATF investigated the Puente 13 street gang and its alleged ties to the Mexican Mafia prison gang late last year, resulting in 18 arrests, 78 firearms seized, 15 pounds of methamphetamine, 30,000 fentanyl pills, and body armor.
Firearms Trafficking and Border Security
ATF's firearms trafficking enforcement has focused on interdicting weapons before they reach cartel operatives and TCOs, particularly along the Southern Border. One long-term undercover operation targeting a major Sinaloa Cartel network led in November to the provisional arrest in Mexico of a high-value target linked to a firearms trafficking operation that allegedly sourced $12 to $14 million in high-caliber weapons, grenade launchers, and rocket-propelled grenades for the cartel. Similar cases in Texas, Virginia, and Florida resulted in indictments and seizures tied to firearms trafficking into Mexico and Canada.
Arson, Explosives, and Public Safety
ATF also responded to several major arson and explosives incidents recently, conducting a higher number of investigations during this period than average. In Tennessee, ATF's National Response Team investigated a deadly explosion at an explosives manufacturing facility in McEwen, where an estimated 24,000 to 28,000 pounds of explosives detonated. In California an ATF investigation resulted in the federal indictment of a former Pacific Palisades resident alleged to have started the Palisades Fire, one of the most destructive wildfires in state history. In Illinois, a federal grand jury indicted an individual on terrorism and arson charges following two incidents: the alleged use of an incendiary device to ignite a passenger aboard a Chicago Transit Authority train, and an attempted arson at Chicago City Hall three days earlier.
ATF remains committed to protecting communities by relentlessly targeting the drivers of violent crime and disrupting the criminal networks that threaten public safety. The agency will continue working with its federal, state, local, and international partners to hold offenders accountable and safeguard lawful commerce in firearms and explosives.
* * *
ATF protects American communities from violent crime driven by the illegal use of firearms, explosives, and acts of arson. Through crime gun intelligence, forensic analysis, and relentless investigation, we identify and arrest violent offenders and gang members, dismantle trafficking networks, and sever the supply chains arming cartels, prohibited persons, and terrorist organizations. We defend the rights of law-abiding citizens by safeguarding lawful commerce and upholding the Constitution of the United States. Learn more about what ATF is doing to reduce violent crime in your community by following us on X @ATFHQ, Instagram @ATFHQ, LinkedIn @ATF, and Facebook @HQATF, or on the web at www.atf.gov.
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Original text here: https://www.atf.gov/news/press-releases/atf-reports-major-enforcement-wins-following-2025-shift-priorities