Featured Stories
Sudan: UN Human Rights Council Holds Landmark Session to Prevent Atrocities in El Obeid
NEW YORK, July 3 [Category: International] -- Human Rights Watch issued the following news:
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Sudan: UN Human Rights Council Holds Landmark Session to Prevent Atrocities in El Obeid
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The UN Human Rights Council held an emergency session today on the imminent risk of atrocities in and around Sudan's El Obeid, a city in North Kordofan. The session follows an appeal by rights groups for the Council to exercise its prevention mandate by meeting in anticipation, rather than the aftermath, of another round of devastating atrocities in Sudan's conflict.
The UN Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan
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NEW YORK, July 3 [Category: International] -- Human Rights Watch issued the following news:
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Sudan: UN Human Rights Council Holds Landmark Session to Prevent Atrocities in El Obeid
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The UN Human Rights Council held an emergency session today on the imminent risk of atrocities in and around Sudan's El Obeid, a city in North Kordofan. The session follows an appeal by rights groups for the Council to exercise its prevention mandate by meeting in anticipation, rather than the aftermath, of another round of devastating atrocities in Sudan's conflict.
The UN Fact-Finding Mission for Sudanhas reported an increasing and apparently indiscriminate barrage of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) drone attacks in and around El-Obeid, noting that "hospitals, markets, schools, and residential areas have also reportedly been struck, causing civilian casualties and disrupting essential services."
These reports are eerily reminiscent of the weeks preceding the RSF's assault on El Fasher, which the UN Fact-Finding Mission concluded bore the "hallmarks of genocide." The RSF's modus operandi is clear: it must be stopped.
The session witnessed increased calls for action to address external support for the RSF, notably by the UAE, whose support to the RSF has been spotlighted again in recent months. UN actors and states called on those providing military support to the RSF to stop, and to use their influence to prevent further atrocities, clearly alluding to but failing to call out the UAE explicitly.
Both the Fact-Finding Mission and the UN Human Rights Office said they are investigating the role of external actors and the war economy fueling atrocities in Sudan, and the High Commissioner highlighted the need for greater scrutiny of "foreign players [...] benefiting from the carnage."
A resolution will be adopted by the Human Rights Council on Monday, which is expected to urge an immediate halt to atrocities by all parties to the conflict, call for an end to external support, including the deployment of foreign forces and supply of weapons, and request the Fact-Finding Mission to conduct an urgent inquiry on El Obeid.
But this won't be enough. Further urgent and decisive action is needed to prevent atrocities in and around El Obeid and across Sudan, and to advance accountability.
States from all regions should work together to deploy a protection of civilians' mission, expand both the arms embargo and ICC jurisdiction to the whole of Sudan, and expand sanctions targeting those responsible for serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law in Sudan.
The imminent risk of further atrocities in Sudan is crystal clear as are the measures the international community must take today to prevent them.
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Original text here: https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/07/03/sudan-un-human-rights-council-holds-landmark-session-to-prevent-atrocities-in-el
Pueblo Co. Sheriff Scores PETA Award for Asking Ranchers to Give Animals a Fighting Chance to Flee
NORFOLK, Virginia, July 3 -- People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals issued the following news release:
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Pueblo Co. Sheriff Scores PETA Award for Asking Ranchers to Give Animals a Fighting Chance to Flee
Pueblo, Colo. - A Compassionate Police Department Award is on its way from PETA to the Pueblo County Sheriff's Office for urging ranchers unable to transport animals to safety to cut their fences so as to give cows, horses, and other animals a fighting chance to escape the fast-moving Aspen Acres fire.
The sheriff's office issued the plea on June 29, after high winds caused the fire
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NORFOLK, Virginia, July 3 -- People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals issued the following news release:
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Pueblo Co. Sheriff Scores PETA Award for Asking Ranchers to Give Animals a Fighting Chance to Flee
Pueblo, Colo. - A Compassionate Police Department Award is on its way from PETA to the Pueblo County Sheriff's Office for urging ranchers unable to transport animals to safety to cut their fences so as to give cows, horses, and other animals a fighting chance to escape the fast-moving Aspen Acres fire.
The sheriff's office issued the plea on June 29, after high winds caused the fireto spread across 23,000 acres in just 12 hours. Now at over 28,000 acres with 0% containment, the fire has destroyed dozens of structures and forced the evacuation of residents in Rye, Beulah, San Isabel, Bishop's Castle, and other communities. Any animals unable to flee from the flames would surely have died.
"Terrified animals surrounded by fences face frightening, painful deaths when wildfires trap them, and the Pueblo County Sheriff's Office made the right call urging ranchers to help them escape," says PETA Founder Ingrid Newkirk. "PETA urges other authorities and residents to follow their lead and do whatever is needed to protect those in distress from wildfires and reminds everyone to never leave animals behind during evacuations if at all possible."
PETA notes that anyone who evacuates and intentionally abandons animals to fend for themselves may be prosecuted.Pueblo County authorities are directing those with transportation to a large-animal shelter at the Colorado State Fair, near the Gate 7 entrance. An evacuation center accepting small animals is open at the Pueblo County Recreation Center at 1650 Cooper Place. PETA offers the following lifesaving wildfire tips for animals:
* During evacuations, ranchers should cut fences and open stalls to allow cows, horses, and other large animals at least a fighting chance to escape.
* Small animals such as cats, rabbits, birds, guinea pigs, and gerbils should be placed securely in carriers (birds should be covered), and dogs should be kept on a secure harness and leash. Take enough food for your animals to last several days.
* Residents in areas affected by smoke and falling ash should keep animals indoors and avoid all outdoor activities, such as running with dogs.
* Anyone who sees animals in danger or distress should assist if possible, but if unable to help, should note their exact location and alert authorities immediately.
The Pueblo County Sheriff's Office will receive a framed certificate and delicious vegan chocolates from PETA.
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PETA--whose motto reads, in part, that "animals are not ours to eat, use for entertainment, or abuse in any other way"--points out that when it comes to the ability to feel pain, hunger, and thirst, a cow is a dog is a boy. For more information, please visit PETA.org or follow PETA on X, Facebook, or Instagram.
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Original text here: https://www.peta.org/media/news-releases/pueblo-co-sheriff-scores-peta-award-for-asking-ranchers-to-give-animals-a-fighting-chance-to-flee/
[Category: Animals]
Latest Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Floridians Taking Pride in Being American as Our Nation Celebrates Its 250th Anniversary
TALLAHASSEE, Florida, July 3 (TNSxrep) -- The Florida Chamber of Commerce issued the following news:
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Latest Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Floridians Taking Pride in Being American as Our Nation Celebrates Its 250th Anniversary
Voters also overwhelmingly proud of America's achievements through history.
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As America prepares to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the latest Florida Chamber of Commerce statewide poll shows the majority of Floridians remain very proud of America and her history.
The Florida Chamber asked likely voters
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TALLAHASSEE, Florida, July 3 (TNSxrep) -- The Florida Chamber of Commerce issued the following news:
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Latest Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Floridians Taking Pride in Being American as Our Nation Celebrates Its 250th Anniversary
Voters also overwhelmingly proud of America's achievements through history.
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As America prepares to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the latest Florida Chamber of Commerce statewide poll shows the majority of Floridians remain very proud of America and her history.
The Florida Chamber asked likely votersacross Florida how proud they are to be American in the run-up to the 250th anniversary of America declaring independence. Nearly two-thirds of those polled, 64 percent, stated they are very proud to be an American, while an additional 12 percent said they were somewhat proud. Only 12 percent of Florida voters polled indicated they were not at all proud of being American.
"Two hundred and fifty years ago, the Founding Fathers set America on a course that has shaped the world ever since," said Mark Wilson, President and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce. "As America celebrates this milestone anniversary, the Florida Chamber celebrates and takes pride in our nation, in Florida's national leadership, and in the entrepreneurial spirit that defines America to this day."
In line with recent national polling on related questions, the Florida Chamber's poll found a partisan divide in how voters view being an American. An overwhelming 89 percent majority of registered Republicans polled said they were very proud to be American, compared to 34 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of No Party Affiliation (NPA) voters who were very proud. A similar partisan divide exists on the opposite side of the response spectrum: 25 percent of Democrats polled responded they were not at all proud of being an American, while just 2 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of NPA voters gave that response.
A smaller but still notable divide was seen based upon age. Among Florida voters under 40 years of age, just 42 percent stated they were very proud of being an American, compared with 71 percent of voters over the age of 60 who were very proud when surveyed. One demographic basis that did not impact a Floridian's pride in being American was by gender: 66 percent of men and 63 percent of women polled were very proud of being an American, a difference within the margin of error.
Floridians Proud of American History in General
The Florida Chamber also polled voters' views of American history. When asked to give an indication of how, in general, Americans should view our nation's history, nearly three-quarters (74%) of voters said Americans should be proud of the nation's history, compared with just 12 percent who indicated a general feeling of being ashamed.
As with polling on voters' personal views of being American, partisan and age divides were seen. 91 percent of Republicans polled said Americans should be generally proud of America's history, forty points higher than the 51 percent of Democrats who said the same, with 71 percent of NPA voters who saw American history as a source of pride. By age, just over half (54%) of voters under 40 said Americans should be proud of our history, against 76 percent of Florida voters over 40 who shared this response.
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ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on May 1 - 9, 2026, by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample size included 203 Democrats, 274 Republicans and 127 Others for a total of 604 respondents statewide.
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Original text here: https://www.flchamber.com/latest-florida-chamber-statewide-poll-shows-floridians-taking-pride-in-being-american-as-our-nation-celebrates-its-250th-anniversary/
[Category: Business]
FREEDOM 250: Independent Women Celebrates America's Exceptionalism and Urges Americans to Defend Our Nation's Great Legacy
WASHINGTON, July 3 [Category: Political] -- The Independent Women's Forum posted issued the following news release:
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FREEDOM 250: Independent Women Celebrates America's Exceptionalism and Urges Americans to Defend Our Nation's Great Legacy
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As the United States celebrates Independence Day and the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, Independent Women is inviting Americans to take part in its Freedom 250 campaign, a yearlong initiative to celebrate America's exceptionalism, honor the women who helped build the nation, inspire the next generation, and advance
... Show Full Article
WASHINGTON, July 3 [Category: Political] -- The Independent Women's Forum posted issued the following news release:
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FREEDOM 250: Independent Women Celebrates America's Exceptionalism and Urges Americans to Defend Our Nation's Great Legacy
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As the United States celebrates Independence Day and the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, Independent Women is inviting Americans to take part in its Freedom 250 campaign, a yearlong initiative to celebrate America's exceptionalism, honor the women who helped build the nation, inspire the next generation, and advancethe enduring promise of self-determination.
Meaghan Mobbs, director of Independent Women's Center for American Safety and Security, said in a video for Independent Women's Freedom 250: Celebrating America's Exceptionalism campaign:
America has given women opportunities unprecedented in human history. Thanks to our founding and the liberty it protects, women have been able not just to succeed, but to flourish.
From the earliest women who fought for independence, to the suffragettes who insisted that the rights proclaimed in the Declaration belonged to them too, to the generations of women who built, defended, and strengthened our nation-for 250 years, American women have been the example for the rest of the world.
We must never lose sight of what an incredible inheritance this is. This freedom cannot be taken for granted. It must be protected. It must be fought for. This is our national inheritance. Preserving it-and expanding it-is our cause so that future generations of Americans will not only enjoy the freedoms we have today, but will live flourishing, abundant lives as truly free and independent women.
For 250 years, America has led the world, and, together, we will fight to ensure the next generation inherits an even stronger, freer, more perfect America.
WATCH VIDEO: Celebrating America's Exceptionalism: 250 Years of American Freedom-Now It's Our Turn to Protect It.
Freedom 250: Celebrating America's Exceptionalism is Independent Women's yearlong nationwide campaign celebrating America's semiquincentennial that invites Americans to reflect on the nation's founding ideals, honor the women who shaped its history, share their own stories, and step forward to shape what comes next. Through educational resources, patriotic merchandise, and opportunities to participate in the nation's 250th anniversary, Freedom 250 inspires civic engagement and love of country.
Ways to Get Involved in Independent Women's Freedom 250: Celebrating America's Exceptionalism :
* Submit a Video: Share why America is great through a short video, and be part of a growing collection of voices celebrating what makes this country exceptional.
* Join the Comment Drive: Tell us what gives you hope for America's next 250 years. From innovation to community to freedom, we're looking forward!
* Shop Independent Women 250 Merch: Celebrate America in style -designed to showcase the spirit of independence.
* Catch the Freedom Truck: Take part in the Freedom Truck mobile museum tour, bringing American history to life in communities across the country.
See more below from Independent Women on America's 250th:
* Women-Especially Republican Women-Have Much to Celebrate at America's 250th
* I was lucky enough to escape Cuban socialism. America's 250th reminds me why
* Freedom Demands Women Who Won't Back Down. Independent Women Launches 'Freedom 250' Campaign to Celebrate America's Exceptionalism
* Guarding the Republic: America's Army at 250
Explore Independent Women's Freedom 250 campaign and get involved HERE.
Direct media inquiries and booking requests to press@independentwomen.com
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Original text here: https://www.independentwomen.com/2026/07/03/freedom-250-independent-women-celebrates-americas-exceptionalism-and-urges-americans-to-defend-our-nations-great-legacy/
FFRF Action Fund: 'Theocratic' Dan Patrick Claims State/church Wall Doesn't Exist
MADISON, Wisconsin, July 3 -- FFRF Action Fund, an organization that says it develops and advocates for legislation, regulations and government programs to preserve the constitutional principle of separation between state and church, posted the following news on July 2, 2026:
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'Theocratic' Dan Patrick claims state/church wall doesn't exist
The FFRF Action Fund names Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick as its "Theocrat of the Week" for presenting the Religious Liberty Commission's draft report attacking the constitutional separation of state and church to President Trump. During the presentation,
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MADISON, Wisconsin, July 3 -- FFRF Action Fund, an organization that says it develops and advocates for legislation, regulations and government programs to preserve the constitutional principle of separation between state and church, posted the following news on July 2, 2026:
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'Theocratic' Dan Patrick claims state/church wall doesn't exist
The FFRF Action Fund names Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick as its "Theocrat of the Week" for presenting the Religious Liberty Commission's draft report attacking the constitutional separation of state and church to President Trump. During the presentation,Patrick falsely claimed that separation of state and church does not exist in the U.S. Constitution and that the Left has used the principle to persecute Christians.
Last week, during an event hosted inside the Oval Office, Patrick presented the Religious Liberty Commission's draft final report to Trump, declaring, "No president in our history has stood more for God than this president. He has been unashamed to speak the word of Jesus. He's been unashamed to speak up for all faiths." The commission is chaired by Patrick and is made up almost entirely of evangelical Christians, except for one Orthodox rabbi.
Patrick said that the president's supposed fight for religious liberty is "one of [Trump's] greatest legacies" and that Trump is "the perfect president to be here in the 250th celebration of the nation's birth."
In his presentation, Patrick defined religious liberty as "that little voice inside of us that tells us right from wrong. It's that voice that, when we're in trouble, we can talk to in our quiet moments. It's that voice when we feel unloved and alone that can comfort us through a higher power."
"When governments can take away your religious liberty, they're putting their hand in your heart and taking everything you believe in," Patrick continued. He then referenced the 103 handpicked witnesses the commission heard from during its seven hearings, declaring that their testimonies showed "one constant theme: The overwhelming majority of our witnesses said they were attacked and punished, and what was used against them was one phrase that's not in the Constitution, and that phrase is 'separation of church and state.'"
"The Left has used that one phrase that was one line out of one of hundreds of letters by Thomas Jefferson to batter and hammer people of faith for the last 70 to 80 years," Patrick declared. "And this report will speak very clearly that we want to be sure Americans understand they cannot be attacked by that phrase any longer."
Patrick urged public officials to stop using the phrase, saying, "The separation of church and state is not in the Constitution, and from this day forward, if anyone says that to you and they're in public office or serve in any agency in official capacity, they have to point out exactly where you have violated the Constitution because you have not."
"And from this day forward, that phrase should have no power over people of all faiths ever again in America," Patrick concluded.
During the commission's final hearing earlier in June, Patrick similarly snubbed state/church separation, saying, "It is time to set the record straight: There is no such thing as 'separation of church and state' in the Constitution. For too long, the anti-God Left has used this phrase to suppress people of religion in our country."
The commission's 224-page report focuses almost exclusively on allegations of religious persecution of evangelical Christians, ranging from instances of Covid-19 vaccine mandates to restrictions on religious displays in public schools. The report's official two-page summary opens with a quote from Trump: "We're bringing back religion in our country, and we're bringing it back quickly and strongly--because for America to be a great nation, we must always be one nation under God."
The report's summary highlights testimonies of a doctor being indicted for "blowing the whistle" on "gender mutilation surgeries," a mother claiming school authorities were making their child believe that they were transgender and a Navy SEAL losing his pension for refusing to comply with a vaccine mandate.
The summary also details the commission's 12 key recommendations, which include instructing the Department of Justice to "issue guidance clarifying the proper understanding of the Establishment Clause and separation of church and state," in a clear effort to rewrite years of state/church history long affirmed by the DOJ. Other recommendations include issuing "Know Your Rights" posters for students, healthcare workers and military members; nominating federal judges "with the courage to decide religious liberty cases"; repealing the Johnson Amendment; and creating a "Presidential Medal of Religious Liberty and First Freedom Hero Awards."
The commission's recommendations would require either executive action or legislation passed by Congress before taking effect. The commission has opened its draft report for public comments through Monday, July 12. Comments may be submitted by email to RLC@usdoj.gov using the subject line: PUBLIC COMMENT - [TOPIC OR CHAPTER NUMBER] - [NAME].
The commission was established by Trump in May 2025 to "identify emerging threats to religious liberty, uphold Federal laws that protect all citizens' full participation in a pluralistic democracy, and protect the free exercise of religion." Patrick was first named "Theocrat of the Week" for joining the commission as its chairman.
Patrick, alongside the rest of the so-called Religious Liberty Commission, is attempting to reinterpret American history to erase a longstanding constitutional principle that he doesn't agree with. The FFRF Action Fund asserts that Christian nationalism is found nowhere in our Constitution and should not be favored over settled constitutional law and our secular democracy's rich state/church history.
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FFRF Action Fund is a 501(c)(4) organization that develops and advocates for legislation, regulations and government programs to preserve the constitutional principle of separation between state and church. It also advocates for the rights and views of nonbelievers, endorses candidates for political office, and publicizes the views of elected officials concerning religious liberty issues.
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Original text here: https://ffrfaction.org/theocratic-dan-patrick-claims-state-church-wall-doesnt-exist/
[Category: Sociological]
FFRF Action Fund: 'Secularist' Congressional Freethought Caucus Leads Timely State/church Resolution
MADISON, Wisconsin, July 3 -- FFRF Action Fund, an organization that says it develops and advocates for legislation, regulations and government programs to preserve the constitutional principle of separation between state and church, posted the following news on July 2, 2026:
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'Secularist' Congressional Freethought Caucus leads timely state/church resolution
The FFRF Action Fund salutes the Congressional Freethought Caucus (CFC) its "Secularists of the Week" for leading a resolution reaffirming state/church separation ahead of Independence Day, as the Trump administration works overtime
... Show Full Article
MADISON, Wisconsin, July 3 -- FFRF Action Fund, an organization that says it develops and advocates for legislation, regulations and government programs to preserve the constitutional principle of separation between state and church, posted the following news on July 2, 2026:
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'Secularist' Congressional Freethought Caucus leads timely state/church resolution
The FFRF Action Fund salutes the Congressional Freethought Caucus (CFC) its "Secularists of the Week" for leading a resolution reaffirming state/church separation ahead of Independence Day, as the Trump administration works overtimeto erase America's secular history during its 250th anniversary.
A press release from Huffman's office explains the resolution's intent: "As the United States prepares to celebrate its Semiquincentennial, the resolution recognizes the nation's long tradition of protecting religious liberty through a secular government, celebrates America's growing religious diversity, and rejects efforts to use the power of government to impose any one religious belief on the American people."
Huffman's office noted that the resolution "comes at a pivotal moment," following the Trump administration's Religious Liberty Commission report calling for policies that would weaken th constitutional separation between state and church.
"Last week, Trump's so-called Religious Liberty Commission released an absurd report launching a direct attack on one of America's greatest constitutional achievements: the separation of church and state," Huffman said. "The Constitution doesn't belong to Christian nationalists, and it doesn't belong to Donald Trump. It belongs to all of us, and its promise of religious freedom protects every American, regardless of what they believe."
Raskin said, "Our Founders rebelled against centuries of state-controlled churches, religious warfare, Crusades, inquisitions, witchcraft trials, and other expressions of religious authoritarianism to create a secular Constitution. As we mark America's 250th anniversary, our resolution is a necessary reminder to guard religious freedom, one of our nation's founding principles, from those seeking to destroy it by using the government to impose white Christian nationalism."
The resolution calls on the House of Representatives to continue "to uphold the founding principles that have allowed each individual to practice their own version of belief, or lack thereof," and to "oppose any theocratic impulses that would undermine fundamental American freedoms." It also "reaffirms the United States' 250-year commitment to a secular Constitution that protects religious freedom, religious pluralism, and democratic self-government."
The resolution draws on longstanding constitutional precedent and the writings of Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, George Washington and other founders in their resolution to "underscore that religious freedom flourishes when government remains neutral in matters of faith."
The resolution is led by Freethought Caucus co-chairs U.S. Reps. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., and Jamie Raskin, D-Md. Many of the resolution's co-sponsors are CFC members, including Reps. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Ore., Gil Cisneros, D-Calif., Sean Casten, D-Ill., Emily Randall, D-Wash., Maxine Dexter, D-Ore., Yassamin Ansari, D-Ariz., Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-District of Columbia, Julia Brownley, D-Calif., Lizze Fletcher, D-Texas, Val Hoyle, D-Ore., Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, Mark Pocan, D-Wis., Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., Steve Cohen, D-Tenn., Kevin Mullin, D-Calif., and Robert Garcia, D-Calif. The resolution is also endorsed by many organizations supporting state/church separation, including the Freedom From Religion Foundation.
Read the full resolution here (https://huffman.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cfc_resolution_reaffirming_church-state_separation3.pdf).
The FFRF Action Fund warmly thanks the Congressional Freethought Caucus for its continued leadership in safeguarding our secular democracy from the Trump administration's rampant Christian nationalism.
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FFRF Action Fund is a 501(c)(4) organization that develops and advocates for legislation, regulations and government programs to preserve the constitutional principle of separation between state and church. It also advocates for the rights and views of nonbelievers, endorses candidates for political office, and publicizes the views of elected officials concerning religious liberty issues.
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Original text here: https://ffrfaction.org/secularist-congressional-freethought-caucus-leads-timely-state-church-resolution/
[Category: Sociological]
CIRES Researchers Strike Forecast Gold
BOULDER, Colorado, July 3 -- The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences issued the following news:
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CIRES researchers strike forecast gold
New framework has forecasters provide guardrails rather than guarantees
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For decades, weather forecasting has often focused on finding the single most likely outcome. Will the storm hit here or there? Will it snow or rain? Will severe weather develop or not? But a recent forecasting experiment suggests the future of weather prediction may be less about choosing one answer and more about explaining a range of possibilities. New
... Show Full Article
BOULDER, Colorado, July 3 -- The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences issued the following news:
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CIRES researchers strike forecast gold
New framework has forecasters provide guardrails rather than guarantees
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For decades, weather forecasting has often focused on finding the single most likely outcome. Will the storm hit here or there? Will it snow or rain? Will severe weather develop or not? But a recent forecasting experiment suggests the future of weather prediction may be less about choosing one answer and more about explaining a range of possibilities. Newtools help meteorologists explain not just what might happen, but why -- and when they'll know more.
A new testbed experiment explored new ways to use large collections of weather forecast models -- known as ensembles -- to understand uncertainty and communicate risk. The first Ensemble Clustering and Sensitivity Analysis Testbed was a collaboration between National Weather Service forecasters and researchers at CIRES and partner institutions. The experiment was held virtually from March 30 to April 3, with the final report released at the beginning of June.
While researchers expected participants to find value in advanced forecasting tools, they were surprised by how quickly forecasters embraced one tool in particular: Ensemble sensitivity analysis.
"I did not expect them to gravitate to the ensemble sensitivity analysis, because of its learning curve," said Austin Coleman, a researcher at CIRES and NOAA Weather Prediction Center who led the testbed. "Once they realized how to use it, we witnessed a series of lightbulb moments from the forecasters."
While initially viewed as a research tool, the ensemble sensitivity analysis became a communication and impact-based decision-support tool by the end of the week. "Not only do I have a better understanding of why there are differences in output from the ensemble, but now I can get an idea of when I may have better clarity," one participant noted. "This is forecast gold to the partners."
Weather forecasts are often uncertain because the atmosphere is chaotic. Tiny differences in current conditions can grow into dramatically different outcomes days later. Ensemble sensitivity analysis helps forecasters to do meteorological detective work to identify which atmospheric features are responsible for that uncertainty and when they'll have greater confidence in their forecasts.
During the testbed, participants used ensemble sensitivity analysis to analyze a late-February Nor'easter scenario. Six days before the storm, forecast confidence was low. "Of course this winter storm is uncertain," one forecaster explained. "The trough responsible for it is still south of Alaska." They learned from the ensemble sensitivity analysis to expect greater clarity in the forecast once the parent system approached the West Coast.
More importantly, ensemble sensitivity analysis showed when confidence would improve. Once that parent weather system approached the West Coast around three days before the storm, forecasters expected a significant increase in predictability. For decision-makers, that information can be just as valuable as the forecast itself.
Researchers say uncertainty can actually provide a more realistic picture of risk. Rather than presenting a single outcome that may change from day to day, forecasters can explain the range of possible scenarios and the factors they are monitoring. That shift aligns with growing evidence from social science research showing that people often make better decisions when they understand probabilities and risks rather than acting on a single prediction.
Participants found this approach can also build trust. Simply saying a forecast is uncertain can leave users frustrated. But explaining why it is uncertain -- and when confidence is expected to increase -- provides transparency and context. Forecasters described this as a major advantage when communicating with emergency managers, transportation officials, utility operators, and other partners who rely on weather information to make decisions.
Forecasters also emphasized the need for simple graphics and messaging tools to translate complex ensemble information into actionable guidance for the public and core partners. Researchers are now working on training, new applications, and additional use cases to help bring these concepts into everyday forecasting operations.
Tools like ensemble clustering and sensitivity analysis may help bridge the "last mile" between complex forecast science and practical decision-making. They could help people understand what meteorologists are watching, why uncertainty exists, and when greater confidence is likely to emerge -- giving communities the information they need to make better decisions before high-impact weather strikes.
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Original text here: https://cires.colorado.edu/news/cires-researchers-strike-forecast-gold
[Category: Environment]
